NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday January 9
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Monday’s slate was a high scoring one as a solid mid-tier of plays drove the cash line up and we had some surprising plays at the top of the fantasy leaderboard as Nikola Jokic (62) and Spencer Dinwiddie (54) were the top scoring plays on the night followed by the Kevin Durant-less Warriors as Stephen Curry (54) and Draymond Green (53) came in right behind them!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to Start on this Slate?
After a loaded Monday Night slate we are left with only four games on Tuesday that at first blush are rather underwhelming. Five of the eight teams in action see a pace decrease while we have four of the top 10 teams in terms of Def-Eff on the slate so this slate does not have the must have team stack in a fast pace, high scoring game environment we just NEED to build around.
What we have instead is a guard heavy slate with some key injuries that will completely determine how I will attack this slate with the most critical being the status of Kyle Lowry. Lowry went to the floor HARD at the end of their OT win over the Nets and suffered back spasms that leave him very questionable to suit up tonight as they have to fly back to Toronto for a back to back against the Heat.
Kyle Lowry roughhhhh fall pic.twitter.com/6SGFycMJjN
— Aaron Bruski (@aaronbruski) January 9, 2018
Assuming Lowry is forced to miss this game, it will open up some significant usage and fantasy production across the rest of the Raptors roster with the biggest beneficiary being DeMar DeRozan ($15.4K). Now normally taking a jump shooter on a back to back after a OT game against a top-tier defense like the Heat would be a spot to fade but it is tough to ignore the 11% usage boost that DD gets when Lowry is off the court while sporting a team high 43% usage rate while logging 1.55 FP/M. The Heat are stout defensively but the do rank 26th in FPPG allowed to opposing SG’s and with the insanely high usage here this becomes one of the core plays for me in any format if Lowry is ruled out.
The other player that gets a huge boost is Delon Wright ($8.5K) who would likely slide into the starting line-up with Lowry out and has played 29 minutes in two of his last three games including a massive 61 fantasy point outing against the Bulls. It would be silly to expect that kind of production and I am certainly not advocating chasing the points here but the minutes security as the starting PG here would be tough to pass up!
From a GPP perspective, C.J. Miles ($7K) is an interesting second unit high usage play that we could see run the Raptors second team it Wright is moved up to the starting line-up and over the last two seasons we have seen Miles put up a 25% usage rate with Lowry off the court.
NBA DFS – Short Slate and only One Stud:
As much as the Lowry injury is the biggest piece of news I am waiting on, the lead story on this short four game slate is Russell Westbrook ($21.9K). On a short slate like this, I will always advocate the importance of finding the best raw point plays especially on slates like we have tonight where the secondary options are simply…..blah. The price on Westbrook is high and you can always make the case for a GPP fade, looking to build a more balanced roster but on this slate there is simply not a single player with the kind of upside Westbrook has and with the potential value opening up in Toronto, I see no way you can move off him tonight. Westbrook comes into this game with 60 or more fantasy points in eight of his last nine outings with triple-doubles in each of his last two games – pay up and find the value, it is that simple.
On a site like FanDuel, if you lock in Russ at one PG spot you will have a tough decision to make at the second PG position as Delon Wright (if Lowry is out) is priced at the same price as Shabazz Napier ($11.6K and $4.8K on FanDuel) who will draw the start again with Damian Lillard already ruled out.In five starts this season, Napier is averaging just under 40 fantasy points per game and makes for an elite value play in any format.
On FantasyDraft, this is looking like a great night to utilize your Utility spot to load up on PG’s but regardless of the format, I love the idea of correlating Westbrook with Napier and his teammate CJ McCollum ($14.1K) tonight. McCollum has averaged just under 40 fantasy points per game with Lillard out this year but what is most impressive to me is the volume of shot attempts as he has put up nearly 23 shot attempts per game with Dame off the court and with Andre Roberson already ruled out tonight for OKC, he gets the benefit of the Thunder being without their best on ball defender!
The F/C positions are not overly enticing on this slate as the core plays initially for me all reside in the back-court but I do love the price point and upside for Jusuf Nurkic ($12.9K) who leads the Blazers from a FP/M perspective with Dame off the court while sporting a 29% usage rate. Nurkic is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game with Lillard out this year and dropped 49 fantasy points against this same OKC team when they met earlier this year!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
Normally I utilize Vegas data to help me identify where I want to go with my builds but on this slate the highest scoring projected teams and fastest projected pace teams feel more like pivot plays to me than guys I want in the core of my line-up.
The Dallas Mavericks have the highest implied team total at 110 which is 8 points higher than their season average due to a match-up with a Orlando Magic team ranked 29th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff as a team. The issue for me is really which Mavericks player is a MUST play for you tonight? Sure Dennis Smith Jr. and Wes Matthews are solid plays but are you really starting DSJ over Westbrook/Napier/Wright or Matthews over DeRozan/McCollum? They may make for interesting GPP pivots but I certainly can’t see starting them over the guys in much better spots.
The one player that would seem like a good fit, especially on FanDuel is Harrison Barnes ($13.4K and $6.8K) as he has hit cash game value in three of his last four outings and in a format where you are forced to roster two SF’s, he is an easy way to build a safe floor there tonight!
The fastest projected pace game is the Lakers and Kings as Sacramento sees the biggest pace boost of any team in action tonight but this is another spot where frankly I struggle to find the must plays. De’Aaron Fox ($11.3K) is averaging 28+ fantasy points per game as the starter the last three games and with George Hill potentially out again due to the birth of a child, this could be another spot where Fox gets all the PG run. The match-up is great as the Lakers rank 28th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff against the position but the problem I have here is paying UP for Fox when I can save money at the same position and play guys like Delon Wright or Shabazz Napier on FanDuel.
The one area I do have some interest in is the Kings front court and it is less about the match-up and more about the potentil for some rest as the Kings play on a back to back and we always have the potential for a Zach Randolph rest day! If ZBo were to sit it would open up expanded roles for guys like Skal Labissiere ($8.6K) and Kosta Koufus ($6.8K) who are already playing roughly 20 minutes per night and would take on a Lakers team ranked 26th in DvP against the PF and Center positions!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: Russell Westbrook ($21,900)
G: DeMar DeRozan ($15,400)
G: Delon Wright ($8,500)
F/C: Jusuf Nurkic ($12,900)
F/C: Skal Labissiere ($8,600)
F/C: Kosta Koufus ($6,700)
Util: CJ McCollum ($14,100)
Util: Shabazz Napier ($11,600)
Slate Overview: The guard options on this slate are plentiful with elite studs to pay for and some top end value plays with clear starting roles and expanded usage. My recommendation is to prioritize your salary to fit in the top guards and mix and match across the F/C positions where the mid-range options are much less enticing. Rather than make any one F/C a priority play, I am going to look to plug-in some fringe options in the fast paced/high scoring games of the night and keep an eye out for any potential rest for the Kings on the tail end of a back to back!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!