DraftKings NBA picks January 11: Should we fade LeBron?

DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 08: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts to a offensive basket interference call during the first half while playing the Golden State Warriors at Little Caesars Arena on December 8, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks January 11: Should we fade LeBron?

Boston and Philly are playing a matinee today, so DraftKings concocted a way to get more of our money: an early tournament with the 7pm eastern game. Well, without late swap, there is no way I’m touching that! This will focus on the three games that we at least have a puncher’s chance at.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Lou Williams ($8,300): Hey, I get it. Everyone is high on Lou Williams, but I will tell you why I’m not. At $8,300, he needs 41.5 DraftKings points just for 5x value. He is averaging a solid 37 against the Kings in two games this year. That is a little under the mark Williams needs. However, Williams has broken that 41.5 threshold five times in the last six games, including a huge 50 last night. That’s 50 regular points, not DraftKings points! If Teodosic is out again, go for it!

Lonzo Ball ($7,200): Ball is inconsistent like most rookies, but he has shown that he is for real. Ball has topped 5x value eight times in the last ten games. The Spurs aren’t a great matchup, but they aren’t as bad as you may think either. There is potential here.

Honorable Mention:

De’Aaron Fox ($5,800): The Kings keep turning more and more of the offense over to Fox with good results. Fox has played at least 30 minutes in four straight games and has been above 5x value even at this price in each of those games. The Clippers are a bit of a tough matchup, but not so tough that Fox can’t hit 30 DraftKings points again.

Jawun Evans ($5,300): Evans continues to impress with Teodosic and Austin Rivers still out. Evans has 29 or more DraftKings points in all three games that he has started at the point. This is a tougher matchup against the Kings, but at this price point, I don’t see Evans going under 5x value. He likely wont go under 6x.

Dark Horses:

Delon Wright ($5,100): I know. I know. Some of you were disappointed that Wright only got 32.25 DraftKings points filling in for Kyle Lowry. He’s not Kyle Lowry, you know! Wright is a backup, so expecting 50 out of him is way out of hand. That was about where I expected Wright to be, and I was happy with that production. I really doubt that Lowry is back tonight. If any of you saw that fall, you know why. Expect Wright around 6-7x value tonight.

Fred VanVleet ($3,900): The split in minutes was a little more drastic than I was expecting, but VanVleet still put up a DraftKings point every minute that he was in the game. His production has been solid whenever the Raptors have given him run. There is no reason to think that this trend wont continue. So as long as VanVleet plays 20 minutes, he is a strong value play at the right price.

My pick: Williams(PG), Wright(G); Ball(PG), Williams(SG), Wright(G), Evans(UTIL)

CHICAGO, IL – JANUARY 03: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the Toronto Raptors shoots a free throw against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on January 3, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Raptors defeated the Bulls 124-115.(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,800): As expected, DeRozan’s usage was through the roof with Lowry out, but he only hit on 10 of his 29 field goal attempts. That left DeRozan way under value. I don’t see that happening against Cleveland. The Cavs are terrible defending the perimeter, and aren’t much better on the inside. DeRozan is going to see a lot more open shots than he did against Miami. I don’t expect a repeat of Tuesday’s disappointment. It’s okay to build around DeMar tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,000): Bogdanovic now has seven straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. He is by far the most consistent of the Sacramento guards. Bogdanovic has hit 30 a couple of time this week. He still lacks significant upside, but he wont torpedo your lineup. He is a valuable cash game commodity right now, and you know how much I like consistency in GPP’s on a small slate.

Dwyane Wade ($4,800): Wade is still seeing plenty of minutes even with Thomas back. It seems to be fairly safe to use him still. On a short slate, Wade is worth a look. He has little upside, but Wade has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. I can make room for that in my lineup for a value play.

Dark Horses:

Buddy Hield ($4,700): Hield is a pure shooter, but he is prone to off nights. When that happens, the Kings have so many guards that they just phase him out for that game and move on. That makes Hield a huge risk. The fact remains that this team has coveted Hield since draft day. They are just waiting for him to become the stud they think he can be. It’s tough with so many other options around though. However, that does mean that Hield gets more run than the rest if his shot is falling, giving him great GPP upside.

Manu Ginobili ($4,400): Ginobili has been playing like its 2008! He has 75.75 DraftKings points in the last two games in which he has played. The Spurs rested him on Monday, so Ginobili will be well rested for the subpar perimeter defense of the Lakers. If the minutes are there, Ginobili could have another big night for his price.

My pick: DeRozan(SG), Ginobili(UTIL); N/A

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 09: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the second half of a game against the Sacramento Kings at Staples Center on January 9, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Brandon Ingram ($6,600): The Raptors are the second best team in the league defending small forwards. It’s tough to fade LeBron, especially on a light slate, but I think I am tonight. The thing that made it the hardest is the steep dropoff from him to the rest of the SF’s with Kawhi out. Ingram is likely the next best option because of Leonard being out. Still, the Spurs are solid defensively everywhere, so there is risk involved.

Kyle Kuzma ($5,600): Kuzma’s value has taken a big hit with Nance back, but it’s hard to ignore someone with this much talent priced this low. Especially on a light night like this. However, if Kuzma ends up playing more at the four, I could ignore this too. I’m not sure I trust him banging with LMA all night.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Anderson ($5,400): Anderson has constantly provided right around 5x value. He is still coming of the bench even with Kawhi out, so the upside is capped. However, Anderson is still a decent value play for the price.

Davis Bertans ($4,500): Bertans has been a beast with Kawhi out. He shredded the Kings for 39.5 DraftKings points on Monday and has at least 22 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. Bertans is killing the value of Anderson, but that’s fine. Bertans is cheaper! Ride him as the best value play on the slate!

Dark Horses:

Larry Nance Jr. ($4,300): Nance is still playing quality minutes, and has turned that into solid performances for his price. Kuzma has the upside, but Nance is still talented in his own right, and sees enough minutes at this price to get you value. If you are going to play LeBron and DeRozan anyway, you will need value picks. Nance is a pretty solid one.

Wesley Johnson ($4,200): The Clippers have been toying with rotations to try and figure out what is working best with the rash of injuries they have suffered lately. Johnson is what he was earlier in the season with injuries to Gallinari and Griffin. Solid. That’s about all you can say for him. He gets his 20 DraftKings points and hits the showers.

My pick: Bertans(SF); Bertans(SF)

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 14: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs in the second half at American Airlines Center on November 14, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,500): Once again, Aldridge has been huge with Kawhi Leonard out. That is four straight games of more than 5x value for Aldridge. He even topped 50 in two of those! Expect a big game for the big man against a Lakers team that has serious issues defending the interior.

Kevin Love ($7,900): If Blake Griffin is in, I would much rather go with him. However, if Griffin is out, I think Love could be a suitable alternate. Love is itching to put his disaster against his former team on Monday behind him. He will get a chance against Toronto, who was eaten up by the Heat on Tuesday.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($6,500): Randle has been on fire lately. I’m not crazy about using him against the Spurs, but it should be mostly against the bench. Randle destroyed the Kings, but this is an entirely different animal. On a short slate like this, Randle has the talent to be a matchup changer, but he does come off the bench against a tough team. There is sizeable risk here.

Zach Randolph ($6,200): Randolph has been losing minutes to the youth up front lately because of his cold streak from the field and the wealth of youngsters on the Sacramento roster. However, if Blake Griffin misses this game, we could see a resurgence from Randolph. The Clippers don’t have anyone playing the four that can handle the size of Randolph.

Dark Horses:

Pascal Siakam ($4,100): Serge Ibaka is serving (another) suspension tonight, so that will leave a ton of minutes open for Siakam. He has been strong at points this season, but has played 20 minutes or less in eight of the last ten games. That said, he has only been in single digits in DraftKings points once. Siakam is still a solid producer when he is in. If Siakam draws the start, I would expect him to come it with at least 7x value. There is huge upside here.

Montrezl Harrell ($4,000): Harrell had a big night last night, and could be in for more of the same so long as most of the team is hurt. Lou Williams can’t do it by himself. Production from anyone else is welcomed at this point. Harrell stepped up last night and should again if Griffin is held out.

My pick: Aldridge(PF),Siakam(F); Love(PF)

LAS VEGAS, NV – OCTOBER 08: Willie Cauley-Stein #00 of the Sacramento Kings grabs a rebound against the Los Angeles Lakers during their preseason game at T-Mobile Arena on October 8, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Los Angeles won 75-69. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bet:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,300): To me, I don’t see DeAndre Jordan being worth the huge price increase over WCS. Jordan has struggled against the Kings this year. On the other side, Cauley-Stein has 67.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers this year. Center was stacked last night, but it’s pretty barren tonight. I’m not paying up for Jordan, so WCS is easily the next best option.

Honorable Mention:

Pau Gasol ($5,700): Gasol’s production has been mostly hit and miss, but this is a great matchup for him. Gasol has done well when the matchup is right or when Aldridge sits. The former is true tonight. Aldridge will take some of the production away, but not enough to drop Pau below 5x value.

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400): Valanciunas has a lot of things going for him tonight. First off, Serge Ibaka is suspended, which will open up a whole lot of opportunities for Valanciunas. Next, Cleveland has been trashed by opposing centers all year long. This looks like a golden opportunity to extract max value from Valanciunas.

Dark Horses:

Tristan Thompson ($3,900): No Ibaka could mean an easier road to the bucket for the other team as well. Love may benefit more from this than Thompson, but opposing centers have done some damage to the Raptors lately even with Ibaka in there. Thompson is a big risk/reward play, but the reward may not be all that big.

Kosta Koufos ($3,600): Cauley-Stein has been eating a lot of the minutes that Koufos had earlier in the year. Koufos was never much of a fantasy asset anyway, but he has even less minutes to make an impact now. That said, he dominated the boards on Tuesday, and has a chance to do the same against the beat up Clippers.

My pick: Cauley-Stein(C); Cauley-Stein(F), Valanciunas(C)

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