NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday January 11
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Wednesday’s NBA DFS contests came in with some exceptionally high scores as we had four players put up 60 or more fantasy points while eight players topped the 50 fantasy point mark. Chris Paul (70) was the lead dog on the night, finally having that massive post Harden game we were all waiting for against the Blazers where he dropped 37 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate?
After a big night of games in the NBA, this slate leaves us with only three games on the NBA DFS slate to sort through and frankly it feels as cut and dry as it possibly could. Even though we do not have any Vegas data as of this writing, the one thing we do know is that the Spurs are the only team to see a significant pace boost tonight as they take on the Lakers in LA!
LeBron James ($22,100 on FantasyDraft and $11,500 on FanDuel): This is where a three game starts for most and deservedly so as LeBron is the lone elite star on this slate and we have PLENTY of value that makes fitting him in one of the easiest moves you can possibly make. LeBron is coming off a game where his team got waxed by Minnesota and now you out them on National TV – tell me you do not see a 70 burger coming from King James in a statement game tonight!
LeBron put up 59 fantasy points in two of the three regular season meetings with Toronto last season and although Toronto is a solid defensive team (ranked 4th in team Def-Eff), it is worth noting that the Raptors will be without Kyle Lowry but more importantly without the interior defense of Serge Ibaka in this game due to a one game suspension. There is simply too much value for me to fade national TV LeBron in a massive bounce back spot and I suggest you eat the chalk and let the rest of the teams try and play catch-up with inferior options.
With Kyle Lowry AND Serge Ibaka both out tonight, right after you click LeBron’s name into your builds go ahead and click on DeMar DeRozan ($16.7K and $9.6K) and run it back with the lone man standing on the Raptors side. DeRozan put up 40 fantasy points in a slow-paced game against Miami last time out but what really stood out to me was the 29 shot attempts which would account for over 32% of the Raptors total team field goal attempts in that game!
With Lowry and Ibaka off the court this year, DeRozan sees a 13% usage bump while putting up a team leading 44.5% usage rate and 1.6 FP/M. Cleveland is a mediocre defensive unit that has struggled with wings all year,ranked 23rd in DvP and Def-Eff against opposing SG’s and SF’s and the sheer volume usage that DD will take on in this game makes pairing him with LeBron an easy core build.
We have covered two studs already and hinted at the value we have available so let’s finish off our core with our third stud of the night in LaMarcus Aldridge ($15.5K and $9.9K) who gets possibly the best match-up on paper of any of the three stars taking on a Lakers team that ranks 27th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff in stopping the PF position this year! LMA has been a beast the last two games without Kawhi Leonard on the floor and with Kawhi out again tonight as well as Tony Parker and Danny Green – this becomes the all LMA show and I simply see no reason to fade him after back to back 50 fantasy point outings.
If we played this slate 100 times, I would feel comfortable that these three players would be in the top 5 raw points wise at the end of the night the far majority of times and even locking them in, you still have over $9k per player on FantasyDraft and $4.8K on FanDuel to fill out the rest of your roster. This may not seem like a ton of money but believe me, you are not going to struggle to build a roster on a night where the price across platforms feels soft.
NBA DFS – Filling in around our studs!
As I mentioned already, the Raptors will be without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka tonight so not only can we look to DeRozan against a suspect Cavs defense but the secondary pieces here hold a significant amount of value. Delon Wright ($11.2K and $5.7K) has seen his price rise to a point on both sites where you actually need to think about whether he is worth the inflated salary. In his last start, Wright put up 33 fantasy points which would return just under 3x on FDR and over 5.7x on FanDuel so he seems to be priced fairly for his role on both sites. If Wright is capable of putting up 33 fantasy points against a stout defense like Miami with Ibaka on the floor, it feels like with Ibaka out and more offensive responsibility falling to him against a bottom 10 defense defending the point in Cleveland, there appears to be upside still even at this inflated price.
Wright will be the obvious value with Lowry out but the one game suspension for Ibaka opens up some interesting value plays in the Raptors frontcourt. Jonas Valanciunas ($10.4K and $6.2K) has had some insane point per minute games recently with 40+ fantasy points in two of his last three games while only playing 17 and 26 minutes in those outings. In the last two games that Ibaka has missed, Val has not seen a significant increase in minutes playing only 21 against the Hawks and 27 against the Kings but he put up double-doubles in both of those games and racked up 33 and 42 fantasy points in those contests!
Although the gut reaction with Ibaka out may be to go to someone like Pascal Siakam but the reality is the last two games that Ibaka has missed, it has been C.J. Miles ($7K and $3.8K) that has garnered the start as the Raptors opted to go small which could be the case again today against the Cavaliers. Miles is actually second on the team in usage with Lowry and Ibaka off the floor this year and is putting up just under a fantasy point per minute of production and with this game being the first one to tip-off, we should have confirmation of Miles role in the Raptors offense.
NBA DFS – Spurs Value….Again!
Another slate, another Spurs chalk value day for all of us NBA DFS fans! With Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Tony Parker and Danny Green out, we can go back to the usual suspects as it relates to Spurs punt value!
David Bertans ($8.9K and $4.5K) will likely be a popular option on this slate after dropping 38 fantasy points in 31 minutes against the Kings and although I certainly think you can go back there, keep in mind that Bertans shot 73% from the floor in that game (11 for 15) with a largely empty stat line outside of his 28 points (3 assists and 2 blocks) so there is the potential he falls back in a big way tonight. Prior to that game, Bertans had put up 21, 23 and 20 fantasy points for an average of 21 fantasy points which would only return 2.4x value on FDR and 4.7x value on FanDuel at this price!
Over the last two weeks, with the Spurs short-handed, it was interesting to me to see that Manu Ginobili ($8.9K and $4.4K) is second on the team in usage putting up a 27% usage rate while racking up 1.29 FP/M. Ginobili has put up 41 and 35 fantasy points in his last two games and tonight gets the benefit of facing a Lakers team where the Spurs see the largest pace boost of any team on the slate!
The guard situation is murky with Parker out as we seemingly are spinning the wheel to see which of DeJounte Murray, Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes will be the best fantasy asset on any given night. Murray at $3.8K on FanDuel would seemingly be in an incredible spot in this pace up environment against a Lakers defense ranked 27th in DvP against the PG position but it is interesting to note that his usage has actually gone down the last two weeks with all the Spurs injuries and we have seen his volatility as he routinely bounces between single digit fantasy games and 25+ point bursts. Murray is a great GPP option on FanDuel where we have to roster two point guards and his price has significant room for value as he would only need 23 fantasy points to hit 6x tonight!
Forbes at $8.1K on FantasyDraft is priced at a discount to both Murray and Mills and would seem like the better bet in that format from a price/dollar perspective. Forbes has played steady minutes – 27, 29, 32 and 40 – over his last four games while putting up 20 fantasy points per game in those outings.
My take on the Spurs is quite simple – outside of LMA, I am not forcing any other San Antonio player into my line-ups and instead will look to this group of punts as fill in pieces where the salary/roster build take me. If I had to rank them – I would probably go Manu, Forbes, Murray, Bertans, Mills.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA Sample Line-Up:
PG: Delon Wright ($5,700)
PG: Dejounte Murray ($3,800)
SG: DeMar DeRozan ($9,600)
SG: Manu Ginobili ($4,400)
SF: LeBron James ($11,500)
SF: C.J. Miles ($3,800)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,900)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($5,100)
C: Jonas Valanciunas ($6,200)
Slate Overview: This slate feels very straight forward to me as you simply lock in LeBron, DeRozan and LMA and move on finding the right value pieces. The Spurs value wil likely be the popular route and although I do like the pieces there (especially Manu), I think fading them and using the Raptors secondary pieces may be the spot to go. You will notice I failed to mention anyone from the Clippers and Kings and that was by design. The Clippers see the largest pace decrease on the slate and I am sure people will flock to Lou Williams after his big game last night but a fade is in play here. Williams has shot the ball 27 and 29 times in last two games and now on the tail end of a back to back against a slow-paced Kings team, I am hesitant to rely on a score first jump shooter who has played 75 minutes in his last two games and will be playing his third game in four nights!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests on FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the lastest DFS news and analysis!