DraftKings NBA picks January 12: Boogie or LeBron?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 12: Boogie or LeBron?
We are up to nine games tonight, so the pickings are significantly better than last night. How will the Cavs rebound after last night’s embarrassment? Is Curry going to make his return? Let’s follow these and other stories to find out who to use!
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The money line was only at 225.25 DraftKings points last night. Davis Bertans destroyed any chance I had.
The winning lineup was just a shade over 300 at 302.5. He rode the value of VanVleet, Siakam, and Kosta Koufos. Lonzo Ball was the high scorer at 48.5.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Chris Paul ($10,600): I will admit. I have a hard time paying this much for Paul. However, Phoenix is awful defending the point. Paul put up 37 DraftKings points on the Suns in just 20 minutes of court time earlier this season. He is going to see a lot of minutes with Harden still out. Paul has topped 50 DraftKings points in four of six games with Harden out, including the 70 he racked up on Portland on Wednesday. Paul should have no issues hitting value here.
John Wall ($9,400): Wall struggled with his shot and only played 30 minutes in the first tilt against Orlando, but I’m still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Orlando is still the second worst team in the league defending the point. The possibility of a blowout worries me a little, but this is still a great matchup. The potential is there for Wall to have a big night.
Damian Lillard ($8,600): All signs point towards Lillard making his return to the court tonight, and it’s a great matchup for him. Lillard has 80 DraftKings points in two meetings with the Pelicans this season. That said, there is a good possibility that Lillard is on some sort of minutes limit here. If the Blazers are going to allow Lillard to play more than 30 minutes, this still looks like a solid play. If not, it’s too much of a risk for me.
Honorable Mention:
Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): Obviously, I like this play more if Curry is out. However, even if Curry is in there, Bledsoe could still be a solid play. This team is loaded with scorers going up against a team that ends up running/scoring a lot. Bledsoe is not the most consistent guy you can buy, but he has a lot of upside. Yes, even on this loaded team. He still sees double digit shot attempts every game.
Elfrid Payton ($6,500): Payton absolutely abused the Wizards in his only game against them this season. He racked up 61.25 DraftKings points in that one, including scoring 30 from the field. I don’t imagine Payton will have that great of a game again, but 6x value could be his floor. That’s how good this matchup is.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,500): The ineffectiveness of Tony Snell has opened up more minutes for Brogdon lately. Brogdon has responded with at least 25 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. Brogdon is a heavy piece of this rotation, and continues to put up solid numbers. He even had seven assists on Wednesday! Brogdon is a strong mid range pick right now.
Dark Horses:
Darren Collison ($4,900): We just saw the Cavs get decimated by two backup point guards last night. Collison has 63.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Cavs this season. He should be able to hit 6x value with ease tonight. Collison has been money in favorable matchups this year.
Jarrett Jack ($4,600): Jack was huge against the Bulls on Wednesday in a double overtime thriller while Ntilikina played just 18 minutes. That is back to back strong games for Jack. Another should be in store against the Timberwolves tonight. Yes, the Timberwolves have Teague back, but he is not known for his defense either. The Wolves are still a bottom five D against the point.
Andrew Harrison ($4,100): So long as the Grizzlies are going to keep starting Harrison, he is a decent value play in DFS. Harrison played 30 minutes in his return to the court earlier this week and put up 28.5 DraftKings points. He appears to be a safe pick against a Denver team that has plenty of wings, but none of them play defense.
My pick: Payton(PG), Collison(G); Jack(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($9,200): Can anyone stop Butler right now? Well, besides Boston. The Celtics are the only team to hold Butler under 40 DraftKings points in the last month. He has back to back games over 50. I would say that Butler has a strong chance at putting up another 50, even against a solid Knicks squad.
Victor Oladipo ($9,000): Oladipo has faced the Cavs twice already this year and come away with 93 DraftKings points. That has him a shade over 5x value. Of course, the Cavs looked awful against the Raptors last night, and DeRozan didn’t even play in the fourth quarter. The same may happen here, but I wouldn’t bet on it. LeBron is going to be pissed, and the Cavs are going to show up. That said, they still can’t defend the perimeter.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. McCollum ($7,700): The return of Lillard is going to hurt his value some, but I tend to think that the Blazers are going to take it easy on Lillard. He will be lucky to play more than 25 minutes tonight, which still leaves plenty of time for McCollum to get a bunch of good shots on a shoddy perimeter defense. McCollum has more than 40 DraftKings points in five of the last seven games, so he was doing this even with Lillard in there. I trust C.J. more than a lot of others in this tier.
Eric Gordon ($7,400): Gordon has been outstanding with Harden out. He has averaged 43.4 DraftKings points per game with the Beard out, and has a superb matchup with Phoenix tonight. Gordon is running along at 6x value anyway. He could be even higher than that tonight!
Donovan Mitchell ($7,000): Mitchell’s shot has gone a little cold lately, but Charlotte rolls out the red carpet for perimeter shooters. The Hornets are soft on the outside, so Mitchell may see more than 20 shots for the third straight game. I’m guessing that he hits a lot more than seven of them tonight.
Dark Horses:
Gary Harris ($5,800): Harris continues to see consistent minutes for Denver whether he starts or not. Lately it has been at the expense of Will Barton. So hop off that Barton train and come over the Harris Locomotives, where he has 74.25 DraftKings points over the last two games and put up 32 against Memphis in the first meeting.
Allen Crabbe ($5,100): It’s really a tossup between Crabbe and LeVert at this point. Crabbe has back to back games of over 6x value with DeMarre Carroll out, and LeVert has been hovering around 4.5x value. There is a chance that Carroll plays and muddles this whole situation even more, so keep an eye on that development. However, Crabbe is my pick of them right now.
Mario Hezonja ($4,900): Hezonja has either started or been first off the bench in every January game. He has responded with four straight games of 5x value or better. Hezonja lit up the Wizards in the first meeting starting for Gordon, and while he wont be starting tonight, I can see Hezonja at or above 5x value once again.
My pick: Gordon(SG), Crabbe(UTIL); Hezonja(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,500): I got called all sorts of colorful names for stupid last night for fading LeBron. It turned out to be a pretty good decision. Tonight he has another tough matchup, but I am all over him. First off, Cleveland got blown off the court by the Raptors. LeBron was visibly upset in huddles, so you can only imagine what it was after the game. Even if he doesn’t light a fire under the rest of them, I see a huge game for the King. When you take into consideration that he has put up 121 DraftKings points in two games against the Pacers already this year, that just solidifies my pick more.
Devin Booker ($8,200): If you are among those fading LeBron, I would just jump right out of the upper tier all together. Giannis against Draymond? No thanks. Giannis hasn’t hit 5x value in more than a week anyway. KD against the best SF defense in the league and with Curry likely back? I’ll pass on that action too. That leaves Booker the sharpshooter taking on a below average Houston perimeter defense. I’m not all that hot on Booker either, but he is capable of putting up huge numbers in this situation if you are willing to take the risk.
Honorable Mention:
T.J. Warren ($6,200): Warren has been lights out lately. The Grizzlies are the only team that has been able to hold him under 30 DraftKings points in the last dozen games. You can gamble with the upside of Booker all you want, but I will take the consistency of Warren, and he still has very good upside.
Michael Beasley ($5,900): How about Beastley, huh? Three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. Six games of at least 5x value. Minnesota is a tougher matchup, but can anyone stop Beastley right now? We will find out tonight. The Timberwolves are very good against both forward positions.
Trey Lyles ($5,800): Atlanta was the only team that has held Lyles under 5x value since Lyles took over the power forward starting gig. Memphis has struggled against power forwards all season long. Lyles should be manning the four again, so he has very good upside tonight.
Dark Horses:
Gerald Green ($5,500): If you can’t afford Gordon, Green is an outstanding value pick yet again. Green has averaged 33.8 DraftKings points since the Rockets made him a part of the rotation six games ago. Green has been even better with Harden out. He continues to be a strong value at this price.
Thaddeus Young ($5,400): Young had a couple of rough games, but Cleveland has been shredded by Young this season. Young has 75.5 DraftKings points in just two games against the Cavs this season. He is seeing a few less minutes with the emergence of Sabonis, but Young should still see enough action to get close to 6x value.
Joe Ingles ($4,800): As per usual, Ingles doesn’t have much for upside. However, he has topped 20 DraftKings points in seven of the last eight games, but has only been in the 30’s once in that span. Ingles is a cash game staple because of his consistency, but he lacks the upside that most want in a GPP play.
My pick: Warren(SF); James(SF), Warren(UTIL), Gerald Green(G), Lyles(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($7,900): Love has done well against Indiana this season. In two games, Love has 72.5 DraftKings points. That would get Love close to 5x value. Honestly, the top of this position is really overpriced, which makes it really weak. I do like Anthony Davis if he is a go, but that is far from a sure thing. I do expect a better showing from the Cavs tonight, but there is a ton of risk here. Love hasn’t hit value since Christmas Day.
Aaron Gordon ($7,700): Washington is very weak against both forward positions, but Gordon carries a large amount of risk none the less. He is trending in the right direction, but Gordon is still very inconsistent. I probably paying down at the position due to the inconsistency at the top.
Honorable Mention:
Domantas Sabonis ($6,400): Sabonis has at least 25 DraftKings points in seven straight games. That is below value for his current price, but Sabonis has 62.75 DraftKings points in just 56 minutes against the Cavs this season. I prefer Sabonis over Young if you can afford him.
Markieff Morris ($5,200): Morris has been on a roll lately aside from the hiccup against Utah. The big minutes are Morris’s for the taking, but we have yet to see a big line from him yet. It may come against a somewhat thin Orlando frontcourt.
Dark Horses:
JaMychal Green ($4,700): Green turned in arguably his finest performance of his NBA career against the Pelicans on Wednesday. Green put up 27.25 DraftKings points on Denver in the first meeting. There is a chance for a lot more tonight if he continues to get minutes. Honestly, Memphis doesn’t have a reason not to play him right now.
Dragan Bender ($4,300): Bender is drawing the start at power forward with Chriss out. Bender was outstanding on Sunday playing in place of Chriss. He put up 43.5 DraftKings points on the Thunder, who are pretty solid up front. It’s chalk night for Bender, but I may have to use him anyway.
Tristan Thompson ($3,900): Thompson is a solid value play at this price. He is getting almost his full compliment of minutes. On top of that, Indiana is pretty weak up front. Thompson isn’t going to have a monster game, but 6x value should be easily attained if you need a value pick.
My pick: Bender(PF), J. Green(F); Bender(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,800): Cousins has 116.75 DraftKings points in just two games against the Blazers this year. Regardless of if Anthony Davis plays or not, Cousins should be in for a huge game. It will just be better if Davis sits. Cousins hasn’t topped 5x value in the new year, but I think that changes tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,900): The Knicks are pretty strong up front, but Towns has been playing at a high level lately. Towns has a double double in every game since the calendar turned to January. His price is still low enough that it doesn’t take a huge game for him to hit value. I still like Cousins a lot, but Towns is a suitable pivot play.
Honorable Mention:
Clint Capela ($7,100): Capela put up 33 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes against Phoenix in the first meeting. He is still not the most consistent guy out there, and honestly, Capela’s value is limited a little because he rarely plays more than 28 minutes. However, if Capela plays 28 against the Rockets, 6x value is a distinct possibility.
Derrick Favors ($6,300): Favors has been really good with Rudy Gobert sidelined. Favors has at least 28 DraftKings points in all but one game since Gobert’s latest injury. If Favors is playing the five tonight, this is a rough matchup for him. Dwight Howard is a tough guy to move, but Favors is strong enough to at least get close to 5x value.
Enes Kanter ($5,800): The struggles of Towns defensively are well pronounced, so there is a chance that Kanter can have a game well above his price point. Favors will likely be the more popular value pick, but I think I like Kanter more based on the matchup.
Dark Horses:
John Henson ($4,800): Henson has been putting up solid numbers since Monroe was dealt. Lately he is riding a streak of three straight games with at least 5x value. This is a decent matchup against the Warriors. Henson matches up better with the Warriors than Thon Maker does, so he should get as many minutes as he can handle.
Ryan Anderson ($4,600): Anderson put up 33.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Phoenix. It’s really hard to use Anderson anywhere due to how inconsistent he is. However, considering how he did in the first meeting, Anderson could be a sneaky value play
Jahlil Okafor ($3,500): The Nets are starting to give Okafor more minutes. His production has been hit and miss, but the Nets didn’t bring him in for decoration. They got him back into shape, now just watch the minutes roll in. It may be a bit premature to use Okafor, but there could be value here.
My pick: Cousins(C); Capela(C)
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