FanDuel NFL Lineups: Divisional Playoffs 2018

Welcome to the 2018 Divisional Playoff edition of the FanDuel NFL Lineups column.  We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups.  We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.

If there’s one major theme in the four games played during this year’s NFL Divisional Playoff games, it’s defense.  And that is going to make building FanDuel NFL lineups very difficult this week.  In fact, don’t be surprised if you see low-scoring winners in cash and GPP games this weekend.

Looking back to last week, Derrick Henry ($6,500) was one of the top running backs of the week, against the Chiefs.  Henry piled up 156 rushing yards, an additional 35 receiving, had two receptions, and a rushing touchdown for 26.1 FanDuel NFL points.  With the match up against the Patriots defense, it’s possible Henry could have another good week.

Julio Jones ($8,500), a wide receiver many NFL DFS players have been frustrated with this season, had nine receptions, 13 rushing yards, and 94 receiving yards.  Julio also hauled in Matt Ryan‘s only passing touchdown of the game.  Maybe we’re overlooking a great opportunity with Jones each week?

While many were trying to find ways to pay for Michael Thomas last week, Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,900) grabbed three receptions for 115 yards and a touchdown.  Ginn ended the weekend with 19.5 FanDuel NFL points, one of the best wide out bargains of the weekend.

While the Bills offense sputtered, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense continued to roll.  Holding the Bills to only three points, snagging two interceptions, and compiling two sacks totaled the Jags defense with 13 FanDuel NFL points.  Along with Matt Bryant‘s two 50-yard field goals, this combination of players developed some of the best lineups last week.  And each of these players, or defenses, will be back again this week.  So who continues to roll?

With those look-back points in mind, here’s a look at whose on the 2018 Divisional Playoff schedule:

Saturday

Falcons at Eagles (4:35pm ET NBC)

Titans at Patriots (8:15pm ET CBS)

Sunday

Jaguars at Steelers (1:05pm ET CBS)

Saints at Vikings (4:40pm FOX)

Each of the home teams this weekend are solid favorites, with the surprising exception of the Eagles.  Due heavily to Carson Wentz‘s injury, but also because of the great play from the Falcons in the second half of the season, Philly is the first team in NFL history, during the Super Bowl era, to be a top seed in the Playoffs at home and be the underdog.

However, there could be other surprises.  There’s turmoil, at least according to the media, in the Patriots organization, and the Titans run defense has looked tremendous.  The Steelers are rolling, but they looked great the last time the Jags came to Heinz Field, stopping them in their tracks.  And while the Vikings are the NFL’s top defense, the Saints have some unique offensive weapons to deploy this weekend.

With those thoughts in mind, we’ll start your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Divisional Playoffs 2018 – Quarterbacks

Top Picks

There has been a lot of press around the internal issues between Tom Brady ($8,800) and Bill Belichick this week.  But while there may be drama around the Patriots organization, I’m not sold that Bilichick and Brady suddenly don’t connect on the field anymore.  The Pats have a favorable match up at home against the Titans this weekend.

Tennessee’s run defense is one of the best in the NFL, but their passing defense is one of the leagues worst.  Coach Bill and Tom will expose the Titans this weekend.  If Brady doesn’t throw a pick on Saturday night, he could have around 250 passing yards with two or more touchdowns and around 20 FanDuel NFL points.

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Marcus Mariota ($7,500) may fall off the radar for a lot of FanDuel NFL players this weekend.  And if he does, that’s a mistake.  The Patriots defense isn’t as bad as their yards ranking indicates.  The Pats are only giving up touchdowns 39.13% of the time in the Red Zone at home, fifth best in the NFL.  But they’re giving up the 11th most rushing yards and 2nd most passing yards, giving teams ample opportunity to score.

Mariota has been inconsistent this season, but has several 18+ FanDuel NFL results.  Last week against a similar Chiefs defense, in arrowhead, Marcus threw for 205 yards with 31 attempts, and had two touchdowns.  Mariota threw a pick, but also had 46 rushing yards totaling 26.9 FanDuel NFL points.  Marcus should have a similar outcome this week

Other Top Option

This final top pick is going to sound ludicrous, given the general consensus about the Falcons and Eagles game.  Nick Foles ($7,200) could be a sneaky value pick for Cash and GPP games.  Foles’ salary opens the door for a lot of top picks at running back or receiver.  But there’s obviously risk.  Nick struggled against the Raiders, at home, throwing for only 163 yards and a touchdown, along with a pick.  And while he only played two drives, Foles threw eleven times for only 39 yards and and an interception against the Cowboys to close the season.

But, we all quickly forgot the 237 yard and four touchdown effort from Foles against the Giants on December 17th, in New York.  At the time, Foles didn’t have a lot of first-team reps, and was just getting used to the leading role, again, for the Eagles.  So there was plenty of pressure.  In the final two games of the season, Foles and the Eagles had little to play for, with a Divisional home game already wrapped up.

In his first two seasons, Foles actually has a higher completion percentage than Carson Wentz.  The difference, Wentz is better at using his feet and body to create plays, and doesn’t buckle as quickly under pressure.  But in 2013, Nick threw 27 touchdowns downs and only two interceptions.  At the time, there were rumors he could be an MVP candidate.  Also that season, Foles experienced his first playoff game, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints in Philly.  The game ended with a game-winning field goal for New Orleans, who were eventually knocked out of the playoffs by the Super Bowl winning Seahawks.

Eagles coach Doug Pederson mentioned last week that his coaching staff was reviewing tape from Foles best season, and they would tweak the offense to fit Nick’s strengths.  If they’re successful, Foles could have around 15-20 FanDuel NFL points on a cheap quarterback salary.

Fades

Blake Bortles ($7,100) – We’re not down on Bortles just because he had more rushing yards, 88, than passing yards last week, 87.  Blake did protect the ball passing, but fumbled twice and had only one touchdown pass against the Bills defense.

Even worse, the Steelers defense is top five against the pass, and absolutely locked down Blake and the Jags passing game when they faced off earlier in the season.  During that game, Bortles once again threw for less than 100 yards, had no touchdowns, and a pick for a pathetic 3.7 FanDuel NFL points.

Ben Roethlisberger ($8,000) – Big Ben has been solid over the last two months.  In his last four games, he’s thrown eight touchdowns with only two interceptions.  But worries me is the results from a similar match up in early October.  The Steelers were rolling and played the Jags top-ranked passing defense in Pittsburgh.  While Roethlisberger threw 55 times for 312 passing yards, he had no touchdowns and five interceptions.  Ben ended the game with a miserable 7.58 FanDuel NFL points in that game.  The Jags pass defense is still for real.

Matt Ryan ($7,700) – Given the hype around the Falcons over the Eagles right now, I’m sure many FanDuel NFL players will grab Ryan for their lineups.  But I’m not convinced.  Matt doesn’t have over 19 FanDuel NFL points all season.  In fact, when not playing the Carolina Panthers, Ryan doesn’t have more than 17.94 points in any one game this year.  While Ryan is throwing to Julio Jones in the end zone often, he’s only hit Jones once.  Over his last seven games, Ryan doesn’t have one game with more than one touchdown.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Divisional Playoffs 2018 – Running Backs

Top Picks

With DeMarco Murray ruled out again this week due to a knee injury, Derrick Henry ($6,700) provides enormous value at his salary.  Last week, on 23 carries and again without Murray on the field, Henry piled up 156 rushing yards and a touchdown.  Derrick added a fumble, but also had two receptions and 35 receiving yards for a total of 26.1 FanDuel NFL points.  The Patriots aren’t giving up a lot of touchdowns this year, but Henry should compile another 100+ yards against the leagues 21st ranked run defense.

The Tennessee Titans run defense is good, very good.  So we can expect most FanDuel NFL players to fade the Patriots running backs, like Dion Lewis ($7,600).  But the Pats are using Lewis as the premiere back right now with Mike Gillislee very like out.  James White and Rex Burkhead are also on the injury list.

Lewis is in the best shape, and is a consistent duel threat.  Over the last two weeks, Dion had 28+ FanDuel NFL points, thanks to 25 carries a game, a rushing touchdown each game, and 12 total targets.  Even if Lewis has a rough day on the ground, Brady will be looking his way often in the air.

Other Top Options

The last time the Saints played the Vikings was September 11th.  At the time, the Saints had three running backs, including Adrian Peterson.  So Alvin Kamara ($8,900) only saw the ball eleven times, seven carries for 18 rushing yards and six targets for four receptions and 20 receiving yards.  Since then, things have changed.

Last week, against a very good Panthers defense, Alvin had only ten carries for 23 rushing yards, but one of those carries was a touchdown.  Kamara also saw three targets, for one reception and ten yards.  In total, Kamara had 9.8 FanDuel NFL points, a disappointing outcome for many FanDuel NFL players.  This week, the Saints have another tough opponent.  But with their season on the line in Minnesota, Kamara should be a huge part of the game-plan for Brees and company.  He’s worth a flier in all formats, or if you’re not convinced about Henry or Lewis.

The Steelers struggled significantly against the Jaguars in early October.  Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) only had 47 yards on 15 carries in the game.  But with ten catches from ten targets, Bell had another 46 yards receiving, totaling 93 yards from scrimmage.  Since September 17th, Lev has at least 20 touchdowns in every game, which is likely why he’s averaging around 20 FanDuel NFL points-per-game.

In his last four games, Bell has six touchdowns.  While the Jags will do a good job of impeding on Big Ben’s passing game, they will struggle to stop Bell from compiling over 100 yards from scrimmage.  Also, a touchdown or two from Le’Veon isn’t out of the question.

Fades

Leonard Fournette ($7,900) – I’ve been watching Fournette since his senior year in high school and love watching him run.  Leonard is a beast, and once he gets into open space or begins to roll down hill, he’s very difficult to stop.  But throughout his collegiate career, Fournette was injury prone, and that appears to carry over into his NFL career.

Last week against the Bill, Fournette seemed tired.  He squeezed out 57 yards on 21 carries, along with three receptions for an additional 21 yards.  Against a poor rushing defense, Fournette only provided 9.3 FanDuel NFL points.  The Steelers are more stout with their pass defense, but also have a top 15 run defense, and 2.7 yards against Pittsburgh will lead to a horrendous day for Fournette.

Devonta Freeman ($7,200) – If you flip through Freeman’s game long this season, you’ll notice a trend.  When playing top rushing defenses, Freeman’s game falls apart.  When playing terrible run defenses, Devonta looks spectacular.  The Eagles have the NFL’s top run defense, but some issues with the passing game.  That could be an opening for Freeman, but there’s too much risk to play Devonta over the other options this week.

Mark Ingram ($8,200) – Against the NFL’s top defense, the Saints are going to struggle to find their offense.  As discussed, New Orleans likely looks to Kamara to find offense on the ground and air, with his unique abilities.  Like last week, Ingram will be part of the game plan, and could steal a rushing touchdown, but he’ll see the ball much less than Kamara.  Mark isn’t worth this price against the Vikings.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Divisional Playoffs 2018 – Wide Receivers

Top Picks

There is a lot of disappointment in the Fantasy Football world about Julio Jones ($8,800).  But most of the disappointment is the result of high expectations heading into this season.  Jones saw 16 touchdown targets this season, third most in the NFL.  The problem, is that Julio only hauled in one of those targets for a touchdown, just over 6%.  That’s terrible end zone efficiency, but bucks the narrative about the Falcons never going to Jones for a touchdown.  That’s simply not true.

This week, the Falcons are facing a tough defense.  The Eagles have the best run defense in the NFL, but their pass defense isn’t at the same level.  That being said, the Eagles pass defense has appeared better in the second half of the season, as their corners are feeling more confident about cheating routes, with such a strong run defense.

But the Eagles pass defense still struggles with deep passes, especially to bigger-bodied receivers like Jones.  This weekend, Jone will definitely see more than ten targets, and could have nearly 100 receiving yards.  The big question is touchdowns.  Including the playoffs, Julio only has four touchdowns this season.  And Ryan isn’t throwing more than one per game.  But if Matt hits a target in the end zone this weekend, it’s likely Julio, with this match up.

Brandin Cooks ($7,700) is awfully cheap having the best passing defense match up this weekend.  As we mentioned earlier, we’re not buying the narrative that internal issues could bleed onto the field this weekend for the Pats.  Expect Tom Brady to be sharp Saturday night, maybe even pissed off which is worse for opponents, and Cooks has the least imposing defensive backs to manage this weekend.  The Pats will take some home-run shots, and if Brandin gets one, he’ll have a huge game this weekend.

Either Stefon Diggs ($7,300) or Adam Thielen ($7,600) is a great pick this weekend for receiver.  During the first game of the season, the Vikings hit Thielen nine times, with ten targets, for 157 yards.  Since then, Adam is still a big target for the Vikings, but Diggs is emerging as a more consistent target for Case Keenum.  With six to ten targets per game, Stefon is consistently getting 60+ yards and now has seven touchdowns on nine TD targets, which emerged in the latter part of the season.  Between the two, we love Diggs over Thielen.

Other Top Picks

Antonio Brown ($9,000) and Alshon Jeffery ($7,200) each have 17 touchdown targets for six touchdowns this season.  That may seem surprisingly considering how much work Brown sees throughout the rest of the field.  Big Ben will look Brown’s way often, but Jeffery is an overlooked option in fantasy football this season.  Alshon quietly piled up nine touchdowns on 120 targets this season, and may be a big part of the the Eagles offense this Saturday.

One of the stories I read this week was that Nelson Agholor ($6,400) is seeing a performance drop-off since Wentz left the field.  That’s an odd statement, considering he saw an average of over eight targets per game, in three of the last four games of the season.  Even in week 17 against the Cowboys, when the starters left the field early, Agholor saw three targets, for three receptions and 11 yards.  That may not seem like much, but they only had two drives together.

The Falcons have great defensive backs in the two-wide sets.  Where they have struggled is in the slot.  Brian Poole has been an average, at best, slot corner this season and is one of the few weak links in the Falcons defensive backfield.  The Eagles will likely expose the Falcons slot troubles, as well as their right-side linebacker hole, which we’ll cover with the tight end review.

Fades

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,000) – Over the last three weeks, Smith-Schuster over 300 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns.  With 23 targets, JuJu had 21 receptions and averaged around 20 FanDuel NFL points-per-game.  But this week, the Steelers are facing the top passing defense in the NFL.  With Bell and Brown on the field, it’s likely Big Ben and the Steelers offense will continue to target their top offensive players, and Smith-Schuster should be a focus of the Jags.  There are better options at this salary level.

Martavis Bryant ($6,700) – Bryant is a home run target.  He will be hit or miss this weekend, with the potential to have little or no points.  Martavis isn’t worth the pick.

Michael Thomas ($8,200) – This may seem risky, but against the top NFL defense, I’m comfortable fading Thomas.  In the first game of the season, the Saints silenced Michael with eight targets, five receptions, and 45 yards with no touchdowns.  For $8.2K, Thomas may not even hit 10 FanDuel NFL points.

FanDuel NFL Lineups: Divisional Playoffs 2018 – Tight End / Kicker / Defense

The Patriots are playing against one of the worst passing defenses on the field this weekend.  So Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) is an obvious 15+ FanDuel NFL point play this week.  Gronk likely sees around ten targets, with over 100 yards, and a touchdown.  If you can afford to pay up for Rob, do it in all formats.

If you can’t afford Gronk, Zach Ertz ($7,200) is another must play.  As we began to address earlier, the Eagles will likely have Foles playing a faced-pace offense, with quick throws, some deep down field.  Ertz has been a great target for the Eagles in the middle of the field all season.  One of the Falcons biggest holes on defense is on the right side of their line-backing core.  Ertz could have a big day on Saturday.

Picking a kicker in the Divisional Playoffs is a little weird.  All of these kickers average around, or above, ten FanDuel NFL points-per-game because their offenses are winning games.  You can comfortably pick any one of these kickers, depending on availability.  But if you’re struggling to pick one, Matt Bryant ($4,800) is hot right now and could have a great game on Saturday afternoon.

On defense, it’s risky to pick the Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700) against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  But earlier in the season, the Jags had two sacks, five interceptions, and two defensive touchdowns for 28 FanDuel NFL points.  They likely won’t duplicate that effort, but ten-plus points is very likely.

So after reviewing all of the options, we put together our favorite lineup for the NFL Divisional Playoff weekend in 2018. Here’s a look:

QB    Mariota (TEN $7,500)

RB    Henry (TEN $6,700)

RB    Lewis (NE $7,600)

WR   Cooks (NE $7,700)

WR   Diggs (MIN $7,300)

WR   Agholor (PHI $6,400)

TE     Ertz (PHI $7,200)

K       Bryant (ATL $4,800)

Def   Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,700)

This leaves us with $100 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.

Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week.  You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups.  We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.

Next: NBA DFS Picks and Pivots

Enjoy the NFL Divisional Playoffs weekend and good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays.  Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!