Early DraftKings NBA picks January 13: Westbrook rules the early slate

The seven Saturday games are evenly split with three in the afternoon and four in the evening. That doesn’t mean that the talent is evenly split though. Most of the stars are in the early slate, and they all have good matchups. Is it the time to check back on previous game logs? Maybe that can help us pick the right players.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,900): Russ is priced where it pretty hard to cram him in a lineup, especially this loaded early slate. Westbrook “only” had 51 DraftKings points against the Hornets in the first meeting, but he has at least 60 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games. That alone makes it really hard to fade Westbrook. As usual, Westbrook has the highest upside on the slate. With there only being three games, prepare for high ownership.

Lou Williams ($9,000): Has anyone been hotter than Williams lately? The return of Teodosic didn’t slow him down either. Williams has three straight games of more than 30 (regular) points. In fact, only James Harden has more 40 point games this season than Williams’ three. I would count on LouWill starting this game. I don’t see how the Clippers can afford to not let him play 35-40 minutes until he cools down.

Honorable Mention:

Lonzo Ball ($8,000): Love him or hate him, it’s hard to deny Ball’s ability. He has put up 48 DraftKings points in each of the last two games. He may not be able to do that to Dallas, but 40 is still on the table. Ball has nine steals over the past two games, and stuffs every category. That gives him a very solid floor.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,600): I’m not touching Kemba against the Thunder. He struggled against them in the first meeting, so it seems logical to look towards Smith. Smith has only been under 30 DraftKings points once in the last seven games. The rookie is back up to the level that he was at pre-injury, and this is a great matchup against the Lakers. If you aren’t paying up for a PG, I like the value that Smith can provide today.

Dark Horses:

De’Aaron Fox ($5,600): Fox continues to chew up a majority of the minutes at the point for the Kings, but unlike earlier in the year, he is actually doing something with them now. Fox is averaging 28.3 DraftKings points per game over the last five games. The Clippers are a solid defensive teams, but even if Fox is a little below where he has been lately, it’s still a 5x value day for him. On a light slate, Fox makes a suitable G or UTIL play.

Milos Teodosic ($5,500): Teodosic put up 5x value in his first game back after missing a week. It seems as though he is ready to pick up where he left off. That leaves Jawun Evans expendable, and should mean a lot of Teodosic and LouWill time together on the court to maximize our DFS dollars if we choose to go that route.

My pick: Ball(PG), Williams(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Brandon Ingram ($6,900): Do you want to fade Ingram right now? The Lakers are on a roll, and Ingram is the main reason why. Ingram has averaged 35.1 DraftKings points over the Lakers current winning streak. Dallas is fairly tough defensively, but with the way the Lakers are playing right now, and the affordability of their key players could leave most of them as good values.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400): The Sacramento guard situation is a mess, but in the middle of all of that is a very reliable Bogdanovic. His minutes have not fluctuated like those of Hield, Hill, Mason (when healthy), and Justin Jackson. Bogdanovic’s role is safe, and he is producing 25-33 DraftKings points like clockwork. I’ll take that on a short slate!

Honorable Mention:

J.J. Barea ($5,300): I rave about constants on this page all the time, so it’s only fair that Barea gets some press time. Though Barea doesn’t start, he is still one of the most consistent DFS commodities out there. I prefer him in cash games, but he has ample upside for GPP usage against the Lakers today.

Wesley Matthews ($4,900): Matthews continues to produce at a solid level most nights. The minutes are there for Matthews, so you do have to fight through the occasional off shooting night. Matthews seems to have gotten that out of his system against Charlotte. I’m expecting him to be back on track against the Lakers tonight.

Dark Horses:

Buddy Hield ($4,800): Hield is capable of big things, but that wont happen without him consistently getting big minutes. The Kings have been rolling Hield out there for 25-35 minutes per game lately, and there is a direct correlation to his early production leading to bigger minutes. The Lakers don’t defend the perimeter all that well, so Hield should be in for a 30 minute night. If that happens, 6x value is likely with even more possible.

Tyrone Wallace ($4,400): Wallace has been a DFS darling of late. The Clippers are starting to get healthy, but with the way Wallace is playing, the Clippers will likely keep rolling him out there. He has 104.5 DraftKings points over the last four games. Wallace will once again be a widely used value play.

My pick: Bogdanovic(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($7,700): The Hornets are the worst team in the league defending the small forward position, so it looks like George is in for a huge game. Of course, George only had 28.75 DraftKings points in the first game because he didn’t do anything besides score. However, George’s price is not so high that he can’t reach value here. The Hornets likely wont hold him to five rebounds and nothing else this time around. I expect to see George somewhere near 40 DraftKings points today.

Kyle Kuzma ($5,700): The Lakers are giving plenty of run to both Nance and Kuzma, and both are responding with a nice run of games. Kuzma has 81.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. With his ability, 5x value is pretty tough for him to miss at this price. I still like Kuzma as a middle tier value play with decent upside.

Honorable Mention:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,100): With Batum still scuffling on the offensive end, the Hornets have needed Lamb to provide quick points off the bench. He has excelled at doing that this season. Lamb gets a crack at his former team, who is still without defensive wunderkind Andre Roberson. Look for Lamb to be somewhere near 6x value tonight, if not higher.

Larry Nance ($4,600): Nance has 86.5 DraftKings points over the last three games, which means that he has even outperformed Kuzma at over $1,000 less. Kuzma has more upside, but you can’t argue with what Nance is doing lately. He has been the more reliable value play, so if you only have room for one, use Nance for comfort and Kuzma for upside.

Dark Horse:

Wesley Johnson ($4,200): Even when Johnson starts, he has little upside. That said, he is a solid producer when the minutes are there. Johnson doesn’t have the floor that you usually like in cash games because sometimes he just disappears. He is a lot of risk for a little upside. That makes him particularly hard to use in cash games, but if the minutes are going to be there, Johnson is sure value.

My pick: Nance(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,200): Griffin showed no ill effects from his latest injury, putting up 44.5 DraftKings points in his return on Thursday. That marked his eighth straight game of more than 40 DraftKings points not counting the Warriors game in which he got concussed after just ten minutes. Griffin has 92 DraftKings points against the Kings this year, including the 44.5 on Thursday. He is a safe player to build around this afternoon.

Harrison Barnes ($7,300): Barnes has topped 5x value in four of the last six games, so this price increase is warranted. Playing the opposing power forward against the Lakers has been a good bet lately as the Lakers still don’t really defend well anywhere. However, power forward seems to be the worst. Barnes should easily hit 5x value tonight with the possibility of more.

Honorable Mention:

Carmelo Anthony ($6,100): The Hornets are marginally better against the four, but not enough to keep me off of Melo here. However, Anthony has been struggling lately. He is just 19-50 from the floor over the last three games, only hitting 5x value in one of those. This matchup should be enough to get Melo back into the swing of things, but with so many stars on this team, Anthony is still clearly third in the pecking order.

Dirk Nowitzki ($4,700): The ageless wonder has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. Seven of those games have gone for 6x or more. Nowitzki isn’t anything flashy anymore, but he is still a great value play at this price. Don’t go into this expecting huge upside, but 5-6x value is likely.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($4,600): Harrell was amazing against the Kings on Thursday. Guess who tonight’s opponent is? That’s right…the Kings! Want to know the best part? Harrell did all of that with Blake Griffin back in the lineup! Harrell looks like the best value play on the afternoon slate. Prepare for high ownership.

Marvin Williams ($3,800): Williams put up 31.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder this season. Williams’ hallmark is his inconsistency , so there is significant risk involved here. Williams does have two straight games with 5x value, so there is hope, I guess.

My pick: Griffin(PF), Harrell(F), Nowitzki(UTIL)

Center:

Best Bet:

Dwight Howard ($7,400): Howard put up 36.75 DraftKings points against the Thunder in the first meeting. Howard has been dominant against undersized teams, and that should apply again tonight. Expect a big rebounding night from Howard. Everything else is just a bonus.

Julius Randle ($6,300): Was anyone else surprised by Randle’s sorry game against the Spurs? You shouldn’t be. Randle is in a much better situation tonight against a Dallas team that got eaten alive by Dwight Howard in the last outing. Even if Randle doesn’t start, I like his chances for a good game.

Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,900): Steven Adams was solid against Howard in the first meeting, but the chances of him hitting 5x value against Howard are pretty slim. I would much rather go with Cauley-Stein. However, if Jordan misses this game and Griffin mans the post, this becomes a much worse play.

Dark Horse:

Brook Lopez ($4,500): For some reason, BroLo is still starting. So long as he is, Lopez is a strong play against Dallas. I still think Randle is a better option, but if you need to go cheap, Lopez should have no issues hitting 5x value.

Kosta Koufos ($4,300): Koufos went berserk on the Clippers on Thursday. He actually ended up playing more minutes than Cauley-Stein. Koufos has been a monster on the glass lately, hauling in 29 rebounds in 46 minutes over the last two games. He looks like an outstanding value play once again at this price.

My pick: Koufos(C)

Next: Main Slate DraftKings NBA Picks

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