Main DraftKings NBA picks January 13: A long awaited return

The seven Saturday games are evenly split with three in the afternoon and four in the evening. That doesn’t mean that the talent is evenly split though. Most of the stars are in the early slate, and they all have good matchups. The night slate is littered with injuries, and players that are still questionable. How do we handle this one?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kris Dunn ($7,300): The second year man out of Providence continues to impress in his first year with the Bulls. Dunn has at least 5x value in seven of the last nine games. He even topped 50 a couple of times in that span! Detroit is solid against point guards, but I still don’t see them slowing down Dunn.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400): Dinwiddie has 71 DraftKings points in two games against Washington this year. Wall has struggled against Brooklyn, so there is no reason to spend that kind of coin when you have strong options like Dunn and Dinwiddie.

Honorable Mention:

Delon Wright ($5,600): Wright will likely start if Lowry is out again, but VanVleet moved in on his action last game. It’s hard to gauge that since that was in a blowout, but when it comes down to it, Wright has the best chance to hit value. There isn’t much optimism about Lowry’s availability, so I’m all over the Toronto point guards tonight. Yes, both of them.

Ish Smith ($5,500): The Bulls are statistically the worst team in the league against point guards, so there is a lot of upside here for Smith. Smith hasn’t been all that consistent running the point with Reggie Jackson out, but he has put up some pretty good games. He should easily hit 6x value tonight, and there is potential for more.

Dark Horses:

Dejounte Murray ($4,900): Murray was spectacular with Tony Parker out on Thursday. In just 44 minutes over the last two games, Murray has 72.25 DraftKings points in that span. This is obviously a much better play if Parker is out again, but Murray is working his way into the regular rotation. Murray could hit value tonight regardless or Parker’s status.

Fred VanVleet ($4,200): VanVleet was amazing against the Cavs on Thursday. He scored 22 points in just 24 minutes. He is the scorer of the point guard platoon going on in Lowry’s absence, so there is more risk involved in deploying him. The upside on VanVleet is higher, but Wright is the safer play.

Dwight Buycks ($3,800): I’m late to the Buycks party, but he hasn’t produced eye popping numbers either. He is performing well as a backup, hitting at least 7x value in four of the last five games. Buycks is a strong value play if you aren’t taking the risk with Toronto guards.

My pick: Dinwiddie(PG), Smith(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Bradley Beal ($8,100): Stephen Curry is likely to take the court tonight, but I really don’t like the matchup with Toronto. It’s safer to go with Beal. Beal has struggled against the Nets some this year, but he has been on fire lately. Wall was awful against Brooklyn in the first meeting. That production has to go somewhere. Beal is the likely place.

Klay Thompson ($6,500): Thompson lit up the Raptors in the first meeting, and that was with Curry on the court. Thompson had 43.5 DraftKings points in that game. The production from Thompson has been consistent this year, but the problem is that he has been consistently under value. There is still some risk in using Thompson here.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($6,100): Murray was off last night with Gary Harris out, but the opportunities were still there. San Antonio is not a great matchup either. However, they aren’t horrible. If you are after low ownership with decent upside, Murray can be that guy. He can also come in at about 3x value at this price.

Caris LeVert ($5,300): LeVert has put up 60.25 DraftKings points in two games with Washington so far this year. It’s crowded there in Brooklyn with everyone healthy, but the team seems committed to LeVert for the future. They are going to keep giving him run regardless.

Dark Horses:

Zach LaVine ($4,400): The Bulls have already said that LaVine will start, but he will also be on a minutes limit. If you remember anything about LaVine in Minnesota last year, you remember that he is an elite talent. He can do a lot of damage in 20 minutes of court time. However, there is still risk here. LaVine could be a little rusty. But still, him not hitting 5x value would be a surprise. He just lacks upside on a firm minutes cap.

Joe Harris ($4,200): Harris is part of the crowd, but he keeps putting up solid numbers in solid minutes. There is little to no upside, but Harris usually provides a nice solid floor for cash games. He may be a little too plain for GPP play, even on a lighter slate.

My pick: Beal(SG), LaVine(UTIL)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,700): I will preface this by saying that I’m not wild about Durant. He was solid in a tough matchup last night, but another tough one comes his way tonight. When you add in the chance that Curry takes the court as well, that will reduce Durant’s value even further. So why is he here? Because small forward is very weak on this slate. There is no shame in paying for Durant since he put up 44.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Toronto.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($5,900): There is no official word on the status of Gary Harris yet, but most signs point to him being out again. I think we all expected a bigger game from Barton with Harris out. His 40 minutes and 17 points led the team in both counts. This is a tougher matchup with the Spurs, but expect Barton to lead the team in minutes and points again. That makes him worth the price.

Kyle Anderson ($5,200): The Spurs are saying that Kawhi Leonard has a 50/50 chance of playing tonight. If he plays, there is no way I’m taking a chance on Anderson. Anderson is the guy to use if Kawhi is out. Bertans was a non-factor on Thursday. I would expect that to be the case again.

Dark Horses:

DeMarre Carroll ($4,700): Carroll seemed fine in his return to the court last night. He has performed pretty well against Washington this season. Well enough that Carroll should have no problems hitting 5x value tonight. Or 6x for that matter.

Kelly Oubre ($4,400): What, no Otto Porter? Not a chance! Porter has not hit value since December 29th. Oubre is still a bench guy, but he consistently hits 5x value. He has no chance of taking Porter’s job. Just enjoy what he provides off the bench.

My pick: Barton(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,700): It is one of the world’s greatest mysteries why Aldridge was so awful against the Lakers on Thursday. That little hiccup should be nothing to worry about. Denver is undersized with Millsap out. I don’t really know how Lyles is going to stop Aldridge, so I see a strong night from Aldridge regardless of if Leonard plays or not.

Draymond Green ($7,600): Green was strong against Toronto in the first meeting. He put up 42.75 DraftKings points in that game. Green came close to a triple double last night. He could against Toronto tonight as well.

Honorable Mention:

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,700): Hollis-Jefferson dominated the Washington interior in two games earlier this year. He has 82.25 DraftKings points combined over those two games. The Wizards still don’t really have anything to contain RHJ, so expect another strong game.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,600): Markkanen destroyed the Knicks with Mirotic out on Wednesday night. Mirotic is back, and so is LaVine, so I don’t see Markkanen having a huge night like that again. However, Detroit’s sore spot has been power forward. The Bulls dynamic duo could both have big nights against the Pistons here.

Dark Horses:

Trey Lyles ($6,000): No matter the opponent, Lyles still keeps coming up with 5x value. He is going to have a tough time with Aldridge tonight though. Tough enough that I may just stay away from Lyles. That will be different since he has been a centerpiece for me for almost all of Millsap’s absence.

Pascal Siakam ($4,100): Siakam had a good game with Ibaka suspended on Thursday. He is still a backup, but Siakam put up good numbers against the Warriors in the first meeting. Siakam had 26 DraftKings points in just 21 minutes in that game. There is some upside here since Siakam wont have to deal with Draymond Green.

My pick: Green(PF), Markkanen(F)

Center:

Best Bet:

Andre Drummond ($9,400): Drummond is capable of putting up huge numbers because of his superhuman rebounding ability. Chicago is a pretty stout team, but they are undersized compared to Drummond. He may not score the points that he usually does, but the rebounds will be there and so will the value.

Nikola Jokic ($8,200): The Spurs are right in the middle as far as defense against centers. Jokic is not the most consistent guy around, but we have seen him have some huge games. i wouldn’t expect anything huge here, but there is a chance that he can score right up there with Drummond tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,500): Valanciunas was huge with Ibaka out. While he wont have as large of a role tonight, this is a good situation for him to succeed. It wont be Valanciunas that loses the minutes tonight. Can he coexist with Ibaka? That remains to be seen, but Toronto is going to find out.

Marcin Gortat ($5,100): The only reason that I am even considering Gortat is because of what Drummond did to this frontcourt on Thursday. This is still a tough sell though because of how little he has done for most of the season. Gortat was solid last year, but this year all he has done is take up space. This if for those of you looking for separation. Just be aware that this could separate you in a bad way as well.

Dark Horse:

Jahlil Okafor ($3,400): This is what we have been waiting for. Okafor racked up 16 points in just 12 minutes last night. Gortat is a strong defender, so this is not a fool proof play. However, with Okafor’s price this low, it could be worth the risk.

My pick: Valanciunas(C)

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