NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday January 13
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Friday Night’s DFS slate was a high scoring one dominated by DeMarcus Cousins who came in as the top fantasy point producer with 64 fantasy points even with the return of Anthony Davis who put up 53 fantasy points of his own. The PG’sin Atlanta both landed in the top 5 as well as Spencer Dinwiddie (49) and Dennis Schroder (54) matched eachother in big time pace up spot for both the Hawks and Nets!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate?
The four game Main Slate tonight has some interesting roster choices and I actually think you have multiple paths to profit here depending on which strategy you want to take. We still have a good amount of injury news to sort through as only two of the four games have Vegas information out as of 6AM EST (as I write this) so as always with the NBA, monitoring and reacting to news will be critical.
Stephen Curry is the biggest domino we need to fall after sitting out the last two games with an ankle injury and although he is questionable to play, it is interesting to note he was lobbying Coach Steve Kerr to play last night which gives me optimism he will gut it out tonight against the Raptors. If Curry does not play then you just go right back to the well with Kevin Durant ($20,200 on FDR and $10,600 on FanDuel) as a premier play on this slate and you can make the same argument for Draymond Green ($13.K and $7.8K).
On FanDuel where the roster construction is more rigid, I would actually put Durant as a core play regardless of whether Curry is in or out as Small Forward is relatively weak on this slate. Draymond comes into this game with 46 and 54 fantasy points outings in two of his last three games and would be in play on any format as the cheaper alternative if you want to get some Golden State exposure.
Even though this is the fastest paced game on the slate, it is worth noting that the Raptors rank 6th in Def-Eff as a team so outside of Curry/Durant/Draymond, this is probably not a spot we necessarily want to pick on Toronto’s defense with fringe pieces from the Warriors.
On the Raptors side, Kyle Lowry remains questionable and it sounds like he is far more likely to sit than Curry on the other side of this game. After missing the last two games I think we all know what to do is Lowry is out – you can fire up DeMar Derozan and his massive usage rate (40 plus percent with Lowry off the court) and easily pair him with Delon Wright who will step into the starting line-up for the third straight game. Do not worry about the game logs here as both starters saw minimal court run in their blow-out win against the Cavaliers last time out!
These two teams played earlier this season and with Lowry on the floor, DD still dropped a 50 spot on the Warriors so the upside is clearly there to make him a priority play. In that game, the Warriors were at full strength and we saw all four member of the Warriors “Core Four” put up 40+ fantasy points so there is massive game stack potential here and the necessary value to make it work if we get news that Curry and/or Lowry sit out!
NBA DFS – Bulls Get a Core Piece Back!
The Warriors and Raptors game is going to be the chalk stack of the night especially if we get news that Lowry or Curry sit out as the pieces simply become way too obvious – you play DeRozan, Durant, Draymond and Delon Wright and move on. On FanDuel, Durant and Draymond because of the positional format are top plays regardless but I think you can make the case for a pivot in game stacks tonight.
On a four game slate we have to find ways to differentiate and the pricing, especially on FantasyDraft makes me far more interested in stacking the Bulls-Pistons. The Vegas data here most certainly does not scream stack as we have a 207 game total which is 9 points lower than the Nets-Wizards (the only other Vegas data we have at the moment).
The Bulls rotation also gets a bit more jumbled as they welcome back Zach LaVine who will step right back into the starting line-up albeit with a 20 minute restriction with makes him a tough play to build around outside of a GPP dart. If you want some narrative to help give you the courage to make this play – realize it is Zach LaVine bobble head night in his first game back – you know you want to!
Kris Dunn ($13.4K and $7.4K) sits at a mid-level price point that I believe is not only perfect for cash games but has ample room for profit as we have seen Dunn put up 45+ fantasy points in two of his last four games which would return 6x value at this price point on FanDuel and 3.3x value on FantasyDraft! Take a look at Dunn’s recent game logs and you will see 8+ assists in each of his last four games while grabbing 3 or more steals in three of his last four outings which when combined with his high level of volume of FGA (17+ three of his last four) and we start to get an idea of just how much upside is really here.
It would stand to reason that Justin Holiday ($10.3K and $4.9K) would take a hit with LaVine back but I think that perception makes him an interesting GPP play tonight as people take a wait and see approach on the Bulls rotation. Holiday has already been confirmed in the starting line-up as the Bulls will go with a Dunn, LaVine, Holiday starting trio which plays in perfectly to attack the Pistons biggest weak spot on defense – defending the wings – where they rank 28th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff.
The Pistons side of this game however is where I honestly have the most interest and I am wondering if they get a bit over-looked tonight. Hear me out for a second – the Raptors/Warriors are the sexy game stack, the Bulls are going to create buzz with LaVine back and we haven’t even talked about the Wizards and Nets which will get billed as a great spot due to the fast paced nature and defensive shortcomings of Brooklyn.
I may be late to the party here – but did you realize that the Bulls have the second worst Def-Eff of any team defense in the NBA this season, ranking 29th as compared to the Nets 22nd ranking. The Bulls rank 26th or worse at defending the PG, SG, SF and PF positions and although the Pistons do not get a big time pace boost it would be hard to argue that any team has a better on paper defensive match-up to exploit than they do!
Not only do the Pistons have a great defensive match-up but Detroit is also a team that plays a tight rotation and leans heavily on their starters so considering this is a 1 point spread, I like the prospects of this game staying close and the Detroit starting five all playing major minutes.
Andre Drummond ($17K and $9.9K) is coming off a 60+ fantasy point outing against Brooklyn and now gets to face one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA….yeah, where do I sign? You want your high dollar pivot off DeRozan/Durant with the ability to be the top raw point performer on the slate? This my friends is your guy!
Ish Smith ($10.6K) and Avery Bradley ($11K) are simply priced too low for this spot against a Bulls back-court that ranks 23rd and 25th in DvP defending the PG and SG positions and the fact we can lock them in for 30+ minutes on most nights makes them safe cash game targets with GPP profit potential due to their prices.
Tobias Harris at $6.9K on FanDuel is one of my favorite plays tonight as this is a player who has put up 40+ fantasy points in two of his last three outings and priced below the bigger names, he offers a similar ceiling at an affordable price.
Dwight Buycks ($3.8K FD) is best reserved for large field GPP’s but it is worth noting that over the last two weeks he leads the Pistons in usage at 30% while putting up over 1 FP/M and has put up 20 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
The Wizards may end up bein a popular target against the Nets but if you look back at the last two meetings between these two, the fantasy output for the Wizards simple has not been there as over two games only one player (Bradley Beal) has put up over 30 fantasy points in either game! Now listen, last time out John Wall was only slowly coming back from an injury and the Nets blew the doors off this game in the second half so box score watching may not be predictive in this case but it is always worth noting the past performance in what I am sure many will look to as a can’t miss spot.
The one player I do have some interest in tonight is Marcin Gortat ($10,300 on FDR) and sure you can point to the match-up against the Nets who rank 29th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff against opposing Centers but I would be lying if I said this pick wasn’t fueled by a narrative that “The Seige” from RotoGrinders put me on to a few days back and I have had the not on my desk ever since. Tonight is Polish Heritage Night for the Wizards – a night where Gortat typically crushes – as he put up 12 points and 17 rebounds last year and 8 points and 17 rebounds the year before! Sometimes Picks and Pivots is all about the metrics and the data – other times it is about narratives – in this case we get the perfect alignment of both!
The Nets side of this game is interesting as well as Spencer Dinwidde will likely be a popular target tonight after his big outing last night and game log watchers will see the 50+ fantasy points in two of his last three outings and head back to the well. On FanDuel specifically where he is priced at $6.5K he is going to be extremely popular which makes me love Ish Smith even more at the same price point in my Pistons stack! If I was looking at anyone from the Nets, I would target Rondae Hollis-Jefferson who has averaged 40 fantasy points in two meetings with the Wizards this season!
Lastly, I guess I have to mention the Nuggets and Spurs but frankly I do not want to. It sounds like Kawhi Leonard could be back tonight which would kill all the fun recent Spurs value and I suppose we could see Gary Harris sit again which would make Jamal Murray and Will Barton popular again but the Nuggets on a back to back, flying to San Antonio sounds like an awful spot all around. This game is a stay away for me – I have no interest in targeting the slowest paced game of the night and trying to sort through the David Bertans of the world for value – I have tried that ride and it did not end well.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Kris Dunn ($7,600)
PG: Ish Smith ($6,500)
SG: Avery Bradley ($5,300)
SG: Justin Holiday ($4,900)
SF: Kevin Durant ($10,600)
SF: OG Anunoby ($3,500)
PF: Tobias Harris ($6,900)
PF: Bobby Portis ($4,800)
C: Andre Drummond ($9,900)
Slate Overview: For a three game slate I really think you could go a variety of different ways and outside of the Spurs/Nuggets all three remaining games are viable game stack spots. The Curry/Lowry news will dictate much of where people go today but while you are watching the NFL Playoffs, do not forget to keep an eye on the news to see if we get any more value to open up!
Next: FanDuel NFL Divisional Round Playoff DFS Picks
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!