Early DraftKings NBA picks January 14: Look out for Boogie and Brow

We have an even split on Sunday as well. There are only four games, so we have two in the early and two in the late slate. There talent is up front early. Which ones should we use?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Goran Dragic ($6,900): Dragic has had some low valleys this season, but he has turned it on lately. Dragic has at least 5x value in five of the last six games. This is a solid matchup for Dragic that is magnified by the shallow player pool this afternoon. Dragic is also cheap enough to wedge into any lineup.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,700): Bledsoe has a tough matchup in this one, but if he is playing off the ball, this becomes a much better matchup. I would probably shy away from Brogdon in this one, but Bledsoe contributes enough on offense to keep him around 5x value.

Honorable Mention:

Rajon Rondo ($5,500): Rondo is a huge risk anywhere right now. The Pelicans have seen his impressive passing skills, including a franchise record a few weeks back. However, Rondo’s limits are still mostly limited. However, Rondo put up 27 DraftKings points against the Knicks two weeks ago. That would leave him right at 5x value.

Tyler Johnson ($5,000): Johnson has a pinched nerve, but is expected to be ready for this afternoon. If he plays, Johnson is a good flier as a value pick. He always picks up around 30 minutes per game, which gives him plenty of time to hit value.

Dark Horse:

Jarrett Jack ($4,700): Jack put up 33 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Pelicans. Jack is a safer option than Rondo and a preferred value pick, but Rondo probably has more upside. Still, Jack did all of that in just 24 minutes. Jack is riding a streak of three straight games of more than 5x value.

My pick: Jack(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

Jrue Holiday ($6,800): Holiday has put up some big numbers here and there, but he is far from consistent. This is a pretty good matchup so long as Holiday plays off the ball, which he should with Rondo around. I wouldn’t expect a huge game, but Holiday has potential at a reasonable price.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($5,800): Richardson continues to play at a high level and nearly 40 minutes per game. For the number of minutes that Richardson will play and the potential that he has to score, I would consider Richardson a borderline elite play on a short slate. There is a ton of potential here.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,600): Hardaway put up 28.25 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in his first game back from a six week stress fracture. Hardaway’s return can be considered a success, and he has a very nice matchup tonight against the Pelicans. He should have no trouble hitting value tonight even if Hardaway doesn’t play more than 30 minutes just yet.

Dark Horse:

Courtney Lee ($4,800): Lee’s production suffered a little with the return of Hardaway, but not enough to push me off of him. Lee’s price is still low enough to put him into your lineups with the New Orleans bigs.

Tony Snell ($3,500): Snell has actually played better off the bench than he did as as starter. Snell still gets enough minutes to give him a chance at hitting value at this price. The bargain tier is tough when it gets down here. I don’t trust Ntilikina’s minutes with Hardaway back. Snell has no upside, but he is a safer cheap pick.

My pick: Hardaway(SG), Snell(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100): Honestly, there is little reason to play Giannis today. He has only hit value twice in the last 11 games. In fact, he has only hit 50 DraftKings points three times in that span. The Heat are a pretty good defensive team, but they are a little thin up front. With Giannis as the four, he could get somewhere close to value today, and there are very few players that can hit 50 on this slate.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($6,400): Middleton is a much safer option than Giannis due to the lower price. And honestly, his production hasn’t been much below Antetokounmpo lately. This is a pretty shallow position today, but most of the good SG plays are eligible here as well.

Michael Beasley ($5,700): Beasley put up 20.75 DraftKings points in just 16 minutes against Minnesota on Friday. I don’t know if the return of Hardaway is going to limit Beasley’s minutes going forward, but his per minute output is elite. If the minutes are there, Beasley is a great play. However, there is risk involved with the Knicks finally getting healthy.

Dark Horse:

Wayne Ellington ($4,600): Ellington has played very well in the absence of Dion Waiters. Ellington has averaged 24.4 DraftKIngs points per game with Waiters out. That puts him well over 5x value on average. This is not a great matchup for Ellington, but it is good enough for him to retain value.

My pick: Beasley(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($9,800): On paper, this is not a good matchup. Paper doesn’t matter much with an elite talent like Davis. Davis put up 52.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Knicks. The Knicks have held their own with opposing frontcourts lately, but they haven’t had to deal with anything like what’s in store for them today. Davis is likely worth paying for.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100): Porzingis could be an even better value today. He managed 51.75 DraftKings points in only 31 minutes against the Pelicans in the first meeting. I’m not opposed to paying up for both of the top power forward options tonight. Just keep in mind that a lot of other people will do the same.

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Olynyk ($5,400): There is plenty of risk here as Olynyk has seen his production slip lately. Milwaukee is not a strong team up front, but if Olynyk gets stuck dealing with Giannis, he has no chance. Olynyk could still be strong off the bench though.

Dark Horse:

Bam Adebayo ($4,200): There is a new bargain darling up front for the Heat. Adebayo has 77.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. The Heat are going to find ways to keep him in the rotation, so I think the value play is safe here. Much safer than Olynyk.

My pick: Porzingis(PF), Adebayo(F)

Center:

Best Bet:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): Boogie put up 63.25 DraftKings points on the Knicks the first time around. The Knicks can’t handle him. I’m not all that sure that they can handle Anthony Davis either. Stacking the Pelican frontcourt looks like the best idea this afternoon.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,300): Whiteside has 120 DraftKings points in just 84 minutes over the last three games. With the emergence of Adebayo, the Heat have the best of both worlds. They can limit the minutes on Whiteside’s balky knee and keep him at peak effectiveness all while giving the rookie plenty of run. This limits Whiteside’s value a little, but if he is producing those big numbers at this low price, do we really care that he is only playing 28 minutes per game? I don’t!

Enes Kanter ($5,900): Kanter struggled in the first meeting against the Pelicans, so there is risk here. However, Kanter has four straight games of at least 5x value. He may be able to keep that streak alive tonight, but this is still a tough matchup.

Dark Horse:

John Henson ($4,600): Henson has provided good value since the Bucks dealt Monroe, but he may have his hands full with Whiteside. Still, his chances of hitting value at this price are solid, though you could probably find better value in the guards for the same price.

My pick: Cousins(C), Whiteside(UTIL)

Next: Main Slate DraftKings NBA Picks

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