Early DraftKings NBA picks January 15: Is Giannis finally worth playing?

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 30: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans and DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the New Orleans Pelicans talk during the game against the Orlando Magic at the Smoothie King Center on October 30, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Early DraftKings NBA picks January 15: Is Giannis finally worth playing again?

We have an even split on Monday for the most part. There are five afternoon games and four evening games on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. I love the way that the NBA has taken over this day for their own. It is a good honor for the man that worked tirelessly for equality. The five early games have a bulk of the talent in it. However, there is still some value around as well.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

John Wall ($9,700): Wall is riding a hot streak right now, putting up at least 5x value in seven straight games. One of those games was against Milwaukee. Wall’s minutes are up in the 40’s, so his chances of hitting value are among the best of the slate regardless of price. Perhaps the most impressive thing was Wall only going 5-19 in that game against the Bucks and still hitting value.

Goran Dragic ($7,200): Dragic had a nice game yesterday, and has another fantastic matchup with the Bulls today. Dragic has taken on the bulk of the scoring with Waiters out, which has made him worth going after in DFS play. Dragic was way too inconsistent earlier in the season.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,900): Bledsoe has 75.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Wizards so far this season. He held his own agianst Dragic and the Heat yesterday, so I don’t see any reason why Bledsoe would fail to get value today. Bledosoe is one of the few Bucks I would trust today.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,600): Dinwiddie has done well against the Knicks so far this season. How is 71.75 DraftKings points in two games? That is a hair below Bledsoe’s output against Washington, but Dinwiddie arguably has more upside with less talent on his team. Dinwiddie should also come at lower ownership.

Dark Horses:

Tyler Johnson ($5,000): Johnson returned to the court, and turned in his customary 5.5x value. This is another nice matchup for Johnson, who should see plenty of open shots against the Bulls bench. The minutes continue to be there for Johnson, and we all know the types of numbers he can put up.

Jarrett Jack ($5,000): This is a tougher matchup for Jack, especially when you consider the fact that Jack has not done very well against the Nets so far this season. Jack has been playing at a high level lately, so he is worth consideration. However, if Kyle Lowry is out again, I’m going with VanVleet over Jack or Delon Wright.

My pick: Dragic(PG), Bledsoe(G); Wall(PG), Johnson(SG), Jack(G), VanVleet(UTIL)

CHICAGO, IL – JANUARY 03: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the Toronto Raptors shoots a free throw against the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on January 3, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Raptors defeated the Bulls 124-115.(Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($9,100): DeRozan isn’t the most consistent guy around, but he has dominated the Sixers this year. DeRozan is averaging 47.4 DraftKings points over 33 minutes per game in the previous three meetings. Philadelphia obviously hasn’t figured out what to do with DeRozan yet. I don’t think they will today either.

Bradley Beal ($8,200): Beal struggled in the first two games against the Bucks this season, but with the recent run of numbers he has been putting up, I may be willing to ignore the earlier meetings. Beal has now scored 20 or more points in ten straight games. That means he only needs 20 points from somewhere else to hit value.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr ($5,900): Hardaway destroyed value in his return to the court yesterday. The Knicks didn’t limit his minutes, so I would expect the same treatment today. Unless something happens before game time, Hardaway is a lock for at least 6x value and likely more.

Josh Richardson ($5,800): Richardson continues to put up value every time he takes the court with Waiters out. At this point, it isn’t a fluke. There is also potential for a bigger game. We know that Richardson is capable of it. Don’t be surprised if he does it against a team like the Bulls.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Redick ($5,600): Redick struggled against the Raptors earlier this season, but he is back up to his old tricks lately. Redick has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. The sharpshooter is in a groove lately, but can he keep it up against Toronto? I’m not sure I’m willing to bet on that.

Danny Green ($4,500): Green put up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Atlanta. Green’s value in tentative due to the crowded San Antonio backcourt. However, Green is still starting, so he has the best chance to hit value of anyone in the Spurs backcourt.

My pick: DeRozan(SG), Hardaway(SF), Richardson(F); Hardaway(SF)

SAN ANTONIO, TX – MAY 03: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs drives against Clint Capela #15 of the Houston Rockets during Game Two of the NBA Western Conference Semi-Finals at AT&T Center on May 3, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,200): This is not just because of the short slate or the lack of depth at the position. Giannis put up 111 DraftKings points in two meetings against the Wizards earlier this season. The specter of about three weeks worth of subpar performances hangs over Giannis today, but there is more of a reason to take a flier on him today than anytime in the last couple of weeks.

Kawhi Leonard ($8,800): We all knew that this price jump was coming. I just didn’t expect it to be happen quite so quickly. Leonard’s price is up $2,500 since January 1st. That said, Kawhi still may be worth it. He appears to be fully healthy, and the Hawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Leonard is a viable pivot away from Giannis.

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($6,000): Porter is a very tough sell today. He did put up 38.75 DraftKings points in his game against the Bucks earlier this season. However, Porter has not hit 5x value since December 29th. On top of that, the Bucks are the second best team in the league in fantasy points allowed to small forwards. There is significant risk involved here, but Porter does have a track record against the Bucks.

DeMarre Carroll ($5,200): Carroll has performed well since his return from knee soreness. The Raptors are legit playoff contenders right now, and Carroll is a big reason why. He is a lock for value nearly every time he takes the court. Carroll also has ample upside for a GPP play as well.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Anderson ($4,900): Anderson backs up the point and power forward, so he should still see good run off of the Spurs bench. He was a good source of value earlier in the season, and could become that way again. Anderson’s upside is capped since he is back to a bench role, but 5x value should be pretty easily attained for Anderson today.

Justise Winslow ($3,900): Winslow was solid in his return from a knee strain yesterday. The Heat limited him to only 13 minutes. Whether the Heat will raise his minutes or not remains to be seen, but he came very close to value in just 13 minutes yesterday. Keep an eye out for any restrictions on Winslow, but he could be a sneaky value play if he is up around 20 minutes.

My pick: N/A; N/A

NEW YORK, NY – JANUARY 10: Kristaps Porzingis #6 of the New York Knicks blocks a shot by Lauri Markkanen #24 of the Chicago Bulls at Madison Square Garden on January 10, 2018 in New York City.The Chicago Bulls defeated the New York Knicks 122-119 in double overtime. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300): Porzingis did well against the Pelicans towers of terror last night. The Nets have held Porzingis pretty well so far this season, but I doubt that he plays only 23 minutes today, like he has against the Nets in the prior two meetings. The salary is tantalizingly low here once again, but Porzingis has not been the model of consistency this year. Oh, and there is no way I’m trusting Aldridge with Kawhi back.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,500): Hollis-Jefferson continues to put up really solid numbers on nearly a nightly basis. His 57 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks this year are below value at this price, but RHJ has only been that low once in the last six games. As usual, Hollis-Jefferson is a solid mid range option.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Markkanen has 71.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Heat this year. Somewhat surprisingly, Markkanen has been able to retain the starting power forward job on a team loaded with them. His price is low because the Heat are strong at the power forward spot, but Markkanen’s history against him makes him tempting at this price range.

Dario Saric ($6,200): Saric has performed well in all three games against the Raptors this season. He has averaged 34.6 DraftKings points per game over the three matchups. That puts Saric comfortably over 5x value. There are solid plays all over at the four tonight, but Saric is one of my favorites.

Dark Horses:

James Johnson ($5,200): Johnson put up 40.75 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes in the first running with the Bulls. When the matchup is right, Johnson has come up with some really big games. That first game with the Bulls was nearly 8x value at this price! I feel Johnson is underpriced in this one, and should be able to have a pretty strong game.

John Collins ($4,500): Collins put up 35.75 DraftKings points in the first game with the Spurs. That said, Collins has not been putting up anywhere near value lately. I don’t trust Ilyasova against the Spurs, and I don’t know that I really trust Collins either. However, if you trust past stats, they are there.

My pick: Johnson(PF); Markkanen(PF), Saric(F)

PHOENIX, AZ – DECEMBER 31: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts after a foul call during the first half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 31, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,300): Embiid has had a tough time since his sore back in December. Toronto is a decent team up front….sometimes. It’s a crapshoot. However, Embiid has not hit value since Christmas Day. Still, his upside is enormous and he can go off on any team at any time. You just have to pay a lot to find out if he can.

Hassan Whiteside ($7,500): Whiteside has been putting up huge numbers despite not playing more than 30 minutes per game. That puts Whiteside around 6x value! There is a chance that Whiteside can do it again tonight. Just keep in mind that Robin Lopez did a solid job on Whiteside in the first meeting.

Honorable Mention:

Enes Kanter ($6,100): Kanter has been one of the more reliable options of late. He has at least 28 DraftKings points in six straight games. The Nets have been a fairly tough matchup for him, but consistency with which Kanter has played lately makes him one of the better options in this price range, regardless of matchup.

Marcin Gortat ($5,400): Gortat had one of his best games of the season yesterday. Today he gets a team in the Bucks that he roughed up for 67.5 DraftKings points in the first two meetings with them. Gortat provides significant salary relief, and could produce well above his price range again in this one.

Dark Horses:

John Henson ($4,500): This is a tough matchup on paper considering Gortat’s defensive chops, but Henson has 66.75 DraftKings points in the first two meetings. Which is about even with Gortat and nearly $1,000 less. However, I think Gortat is a bit less of a risk.

Jahlil Okafor ($3,400): Okafor’s minutes have been hard to come by since he was shipped to Brooklyn, but he is still seeing more time than he was in Philadelphia. Due to his low minutes, the output has been sporadic. However, if you want a dart throw, Okafor is going to break out at some point. Will this be it?

My pick: Gortat(C), Henson(UTIL); Whiteside(C)

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