Jaguars’ run, Vikings’ miracle and Patriots’ dominance
The Jacksonville Jaguars pulled the weekend’s biggest upset, and now are one win away from the first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.
Blake Bortles isn’t supposed to get to the AFC Championship Game. Hell, Bortles isn’t supposed to reach the playoffs, but here we are.
The much-maligned fourth-year quarterback has found his way to the doorstep of Super Bowl LII, largely because he’s avoided the big mistake, while the league’s best defense forced the Pittsburgh Steelers into two of them in a stunning 45-42 win.
Jacksonville finished the regular season with a two-game losing streak in which Bortles tossed five picks, reminding everyone to jump off the Jaguars’ bandwagon before the chips were all collectively pushed to the middle of the table. Instead of falling on their face, the Jaguars regrouped and survived an ugly Wild Card win over the Buffalo Bills before taking their attitude to Pittsburgh and displaying it in front of a startled nation.
The AFC playoffs were supposed to be a formality coming into January. Pittsburgh was to crush any opponent in the Divisionals before meeting up with the New England Patriots next weekend. Instead, Jacksonville turned the tables by hanging 45 points on a Steelers defense that ranked fifth in yardage and seventh in points allowed during the regular season.
The Jaguars have been slept on nationally and perhaps for good reason. Pittsburgh and New England are monoliths in the AFC, led by Hall of Fame quarterbacks and Super Bowl-winning head coaches. Imagining Bortles walking out of Heinz Field or Gillette Stadium with the victory was tougher than picturing Donald Trump gleefully agreeing to an interview with CNN.
Yet, here we are. Jacksonville is riding the best defense we’ve seen since the 2015 Denver Broncos, and everyone knows how that story ended. Denver rode an incredible unit to the promised land, surviving Roethlisberger and Tom Brady on the way to Super Bowl 50, where it beat the Carolina Panthers as decided underdogs.
Of course, the obvious caveat is the Broncos had Peyton Manning. Manning, even in his swan song, was superior to Bortles not in numbers but in intellect, getting his team into the right call on every call.
Still, Jacksonville is proving that it can win even when everything doesn’t go according to script. The defense, which this finished second in the league with 55 sacks and held opponents to an NFL-best 169 passing yards per game, surrendered 545 yards and six touchdowns. Yet it was a pair of forced turnovers and a third-down conversion rate north of 50 percent that led to an improbable win in a foreboding venue.
Now, the Jaguars go to Foxboro for a date with the Patriots, coming in as more than a touchdown underdog. Jacksonville draws a team that has been to the AFC Championship Game seven consecutive years and for the 12th time in the Bill Belichick era, looking to make its annual pilgrimage to the Super Bowl.
If the Jaguars can topple New England, they would have authored one of the most improbable runs to Super Sunday in NFL history.
Considering the kind of season we’ve seen both league-wide and from the Jaguars, anything feels possible.
Power rankings
10 best helmets in NFL history
1. Los Angeles Rams – (1950s, first logo on any helmet)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Bucco Bruce
3. Denver Broncos – Floyd Little era
4. Buffalo Bills – 1960s
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Indianapolis Colts
7. New England Patriots – Pat Patriot
8. Oakland Raiders
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Dallas Cowboys
Quotable
"“I have a desire to play football,” Roethlisberger said. “I don’t know about [player] contracts, who’s coming back, but I know the guys up front are, and that makes it good for me. And I look forward to next year with those guys.”"
– Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on his plans to play in 2018
Big Ben set a franchise postseason record with 469 yards and five touchdowns against Jacksonville, albeit in defeat. After the game, the future Hall of Famer satted his intent to play in 2018, giving Pittsburgh hope of another championship run.
Roethlisberger, 35, has two years and $46.4 million remaining on his current deal. Expect him to play through it.
Podcast
This week, Matt Verderame and Josh Hill will preview the conference championship games, along with a memorial for the high-powered Steelers and an update on the head coaching carousel.
In case you missed last week’s episode:
Random stat
The only two visiting teams to beat the Patriots in the postseason during the Brady-Belichick era are the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens. Those three losses all came between 2009-12. All told, New England is 17-3 at Gillette Stadium in the postseason.
Additionally, this will be the seventh AFC Championship Game held in that building. The Patriots only hosted one AFC title match in Foxboro Stadium, beating the Jaguars in Jan. 1997.
Info learned this week
1. Vikings turn table on history, win thriller
In an instant, everything changed. The Minnesota Vikings have long been the teacher of the NFL’s misery class, owning a masters degree in finding torturous ways to lose. On Sunday, Minnesota flipped the script, giving us one of the greatest endings to a playoff game in recent memory.
With 10 seconds remaining and the ball at Minnesota’s 39-yard line, Case Keenum found Stefon Diggs for an impossible 61-yard strike, putting the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and sending an entire region into delirium with a 29-24 win over the New Orleans Saints.
Longtime Vikings radio announcer Paul Allen dubbed the game the Miracle in Minneapolis, and it seems like a name that will stick, and rightfully so. What an incredible night for a fanbase that has suffered through decades of pain.
2. Eagles silence the doubters with win
The Philadelphia Eagles were the first No. 1 seed to ever be an underdog in the Divisional round. With Carson Wentz on the sideline and Nick Foles under center, it seemed highly unlikely that the Eagles could handle the Atlanta Falcons. Yet that’s exactly what happened, with Philadelphia winning 15-10 in an ugly, hard-fought contest.
Foles wasn’t great on Saturday night, throwing for 246 yards without a touchdown, but he avoided turnovers and managed what was a balance attack. The Philadelphia defense led the way, holding Atlanta’s potent offense to 281 yards, punctuated by a last-minute goal line stand.
Now the Eagles play host in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 2004, when they beat the Falcons to go to Super Bowl XXXIX.
3. Patriots continue making history
New England is going back to the AFC Championship Game after a 35-14 beating of the Tennessee Titans, doing what was expected of them. For Tom Brady, it was a typical day at the office, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed and undermanned Tennessee team.
With one more victory, the Patriots will earn their eighth Super Bowl trip in the Brady era and 10th overall. The Dallas Cowboys have the next-highest total with eight. Of course, most of those aforementioned appearances for Dallas predated the salary cap era, with all but one of New England’s coming after its advent.
Considering the Patriots are 8.5-point favorites over the Jaguars, there a good chance that Bill Belichick and his charges are back where they always are.
4. Giants, Lions, Cardinals and Colts still with vacancies
As we enter mid-January, the NFL coaching carousel is continuing to spin. Only two of the six head-coaching vacancies have been filled thus far, with the Oakland Raiders landing Jon Gruden and the Chicago Bears giving Matt Nagy the keys.
Of the four openings left, rumors are flying. The Arizona Cardinals reportedly have eyes for Pat Shurmur, while the New York Giants and Detroit Lions are sparring over Matt Patricia. The Indianapolis Colts are rumored to be enamored with Josh McDaniels, although that search has felt disjointed from the jump.
Look for Patricia to be the man in Detroit after the Patriots wrap their season up, leaving the Giants to focus on Shurmur or Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks.
5. Texans stay course with Bill O’Brien
On Saturday morning, the Houston Texans announced a five-year extension for head coach Bill O’Brien. O’Brien, 48, has been on the job for five years and won two AFC South titles and one playoff game, sporting an overall regular-season record of 31-33.
The decision is questionable, considering how O’Brien handled Deshaun Watson throughout his rookie year. Despite seeing him for four months in practice and preseason games, Watson rode the bench in Week 1 as Tom Savage was given the start. After 30 minutes, Watson replaced the overmatched Savage, staying in the lineup until his torn ACL sidelined him for the year.
There are cases to be made for and against O’Brien, but none of them matter now. Houston has tied Watson’s future to O’Brien’s ability, for better or worse.
History lesson
The only NFC teams to not reach the conference championship at least once since 1995 are the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins. Ironically, they played each other in the 1991 NFC Championship Game, the only such appearance for the Lions since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
Parting shot
The NFC saw massive turnover in its playoff field from last year to this. Only the Falcons were able to repeat, and they went from the top seed to the sixth.
Next year, something similar could happen. The Packers should be back provided Aaron Rodgers remains upright, while the Seattle Seahawks always remain a threat with Russell Wilson. Perhaps a longshot, but the San Francisco 49ers appear to have the pillars of a contender with Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo, especially if general manager John Lynch can add some weapons for them.
Factor in potential bounce-back campaigns from the Cowboys and Giants, and the NFC could be topsy-turvy once more in 2018.