Main DraftKings NBA picks January 15: Point guard is stacked!
By Mike Marteny
Main DraftKings NBA picks January 15: Point guard is stacked!
We have an even split on Monday for the most part. There are five afternoon games and four evening games on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. I love the way that the NBA has taken over this day for their own. It is a good honor for the man that worked tirelessly for equality. There are only four games at night, but there is a ton of talent here.
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The money line was only 215.25 DraftKings points. Most everyone underachieved, namely Nurkic and Dragan Bender.
The winning lineup was the lowest of the season at just 266.25 DraftKings points. He hit value with Suns players and Jeff Teague and was able to survive a terrible night from Bojan Bogdanovic.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Chris Paul ($10,300): Paul has not been below 48 DraftKings points since James Harden went down. Point guard is so loaded that I’m not even considering Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has been on fire lately, but it is really hard for him to hit value at his price. As far as the points per dollar goes, I would much rather have Paul or….
Stephen Curry ($10,200): Curry has only missed 5x value once in the last eight games. That was in the last game against a pretty solid Toronto team, and Curry still had 47.5 DraftKings points. Curry and Paul’s output has been practically identical lately. However, I think I like Curry against the Cavs more, particularly since Cury missed the first one on Christmas.
Honorable Mention:
Lou Williams ($8,900): Williams destroyed Houston in the first meeting, racking up 54 DraftKings points. LouWill could rival the output of any of the three ahead of him, and at a much lower price. That said, Williams’ high level game is the average output of those three on a regular basis.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,100): Mitchell has become the best sharpshooter that Utah has. This is what the team envisioned Rodney Hood or Dante Exum turning into. Well, Mitchell did that in just a couple of months. Mitchell is worth using just about anywhere because of his ability to put up a lot of points on any given night.
Dark Horse:
Milos Teodosic ($5,100): Teodosic has intoxicating upside, but in all actuality, he has not hit value all that much. On top of that, you are looking for someone that can hit 6x value or higher in this price range. You wont find that tonight. If you get 5x value from Teodosic, that will have to do.
My pick: Williams(PG); Curry(PG), Paul(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Eric Gordon ($7,200): Gordon continues to be reliable source of value with Harden out. This is a pretty favorable matchup for Gordon tonight, but as usual, when you are relying on someone who is nothing but a shooter, there is always risk involved. If Gordon goes cold, your lineup is in trouble.
Klay Thompson ($6,400): Thompson put up 37.75 DraftKings points on Christmas Day against the Cavs. His output may suffer a little with Curry back, but Cleveland has been so poor defending the perimeter that Thompson should have no issues hitting value. Thompson even has suitable upside for GPP usage.
Honorable Mention:
Gerald Green ($5,300): Green has been an excellent source of value since Harden went down. He has taken over Eric Gordon’s role as the primary scorer on the second unit. So long as Green is in that role, he is a strong value play at this price point.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,200): Bogdanovic is the only consistent source of value in the Sacramento backcourt. Bogdanovic is the reigning starter, and has at least 20 DraftKings points in each of the last nine games. The last four of those have been at 5x value or better. He should be right in that area against the Thunder tonight.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($4,500): There is always upside with Hield, but he is also one of the biggest risks on the slate. That said, he put up 35.75 DraftKings points in 27 minutes against the Thunder in the first meeting. Hield is back to his college stomping ground. He has some huge games a few miles down I-35 in Norman. I have a good feeling about Hield’s return to Oklahoma tonight.
Raymond Felton ($3,400): Felton has stepped up in the absence of Andre Roberson. Terrance Ferguson has really slipped since his one strong start. The Thunder need production from Felton, which makes him a pretty solid value play on a night where you will likely need some value in this range if you play on paying up at point guard.
My pick: Gordon(SG), Green(SF), Hield(G); Bogdanovic(SG), Hield(SF)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,100): LeBron was terrible in the Christmas day matchup with the Warriors. Could tonight be different? It could, but I’m not sure I want to spend this kind of money to find out. There are a few point guards that I would take over LeBron today. There is no middle tier at the position today, so if you’re desperate for separation, James could provide it.
Kevin Durant ($9,800): Durant was the one who was the king on Christmas Day. KD put up 51.75 DraftKings points on the Cavs in a win. I definitely think that Curry being present could cut into Durant’s value, but Durant still has a great shot at value here. Probably better than LeBron does.
Honorable Mention:
Paul George ($7,400): George has struggled over the last three games, but Sacramento is much better against guards than forwards. If the Kings do manage to hold Westbrook in check again, George will have to step up. That said, George didn’t in the first meeting.
Lance Stephenson ($5,100): I don’t trust any of the high priced guards against this Oklahoma City defense, but Stephenson has been playing at a high level lately. Stephenson has at least 5x value in each of the last four games. I like him against the Thunder second team.
Dark Horses:
Joe Ingles ($4,700): Ingles has only been under 20 DraftKings points once in the last dozen games. He rarely gets out of the 20’s but the consistency of Ingles is a blessing in cash games, and can help you cash in GPP formats as a low priced punt play.
Wesley Johnson ($4,100): Johnson’s versatility gives him plenty of bench minutes with the Clippers, and he almost always gets 5x value. He is a value play in the vein of Ingles except that Johnson doesn’t start.
My pick: N/A; Stephenson(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,700): Griffin’s production has been all over the board since he came back, and I don’t trust him at all against the Rockets. Houston is the second best team in the league defending the power forward. I would much rather go with Green. Green was a monster against the Cavs on Christmas with 53 DraftKings points and a triple-double. I wouldn’t count on Green putting up another triple-double, but he should easily hit 5x value.
Kevin Love ($7,600): Love dropped 60 on Golden State on Christmas while LeBron was struggling. Don’t count on Love picking up 18 rebounds again. I wouldn’t count on another 60 DraftKings point night either. 40 in very possible though, and that would put Love comfortably over 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Domantas Sabonis ($6,400): Sabonis was a non-factor last night. Myles Turner is likely out again, which means Sabonis will get good run against a Utah team that is still without Rudy Gobert. Sabonis’s price is still low enough that he will hit value in most games. Yes, even tonight against Utah.
Derrick Favors ($6,000): Favors continues to be a strong value play with Gobert sidelined. That isn’t going to change tonight against an Indiana frontcourt that wasn’t all that strong when Turner was healthy. Favors is a stronger play than Sabonis at this point.
Dark Horses:
Montrezl Harrell ($4,600): Harrell has been outstanding with DeAndre Jordan limited or out. There is no official word on Jordan’s status yet, but even if Jordan plays, I can see Harrell having an expanded role after his recent run. However, I likely wont use him if Jordan plays his full compliment of minutes.
Skal Labissiere ($3,900): Labissiere has been playing nearly as many minutes as Zach Randolph lately. That makes Labissiere the guy you want from this situation. His price is nearly $2,000 less than Randolph, and their production has been nearly the same over the last few games.
My pick: Green(PF), Favors(F); Favors(PF)
Center:
Best Bet:
Clint Capela ($7,200): Capela could dominate the inside tonight if Jordan misses this game. Even if Jordan is in, he is not a particularly great defender. There is plenty of potential here for the Rockets big man, especially if he plays 36 minutes again like he did against Phoenix.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Adams ($6,200): Adams put up 32 DraftKings points on the Kings in the first meeting. Adams really took it to the Hornets in the last meeting. If he can tear apart Dwight Howard, then Adams shouldn’t have much of a problem with anyone right now. If you can’t afford Capela, Adams in nearly as strong of a play.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,700): Cauley-Stein has been playing at a pretty high level lately. However, he still lacks consistency. That makes him less than ideal for DFS play under normal circumstances. A light slate is not a normal circumstance. WCS is cheap enough that he is at least worth a flier tonight.
Dark Horses:
Willie Reed ($4,300): Reed was outstanding filling in for DeAndre Jordan on Saturday. If Jordan is out again, Reed is an even better value play than Harrell so long as he starts the game again. Current word from the Clippers is that Reed will start if Jordan can’t go.
Ekpe Udoh ($4,100): Udoh is going to be a spectacular value play with the news that Rudy Gobert is out for at least another week. Indiana is weak up front, so I will have Udoh in all lineups. He provides the value that you will need on this slate.
My pick: Adams(C), Udoh(UTIL); Reed(C), Udoh(UTIL)
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