NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday January 15
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate was dominated by the early game Pelicans/Knicks stack as the top six scoring plays on the night came from that game with Anthony Davis putting up 83.75 as the top scorer on the slate! DeMarcus Cousins (61) and Jrue Holiday (52) rounded out the top 3 while Kristaps Porzingis (51), Jarrett Jack (43) and TIm Hardaway Jr. (41) all had big games in a OT loss for the Knicks!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to Start (Early Slate):
Welcome to a loaded Monday NBA DFS docket where we get two fun slates to play on as the early slate has six games on FantasyDraft starting at 12:30PM EST with 5 games starting at 1PM EST on FanDuel. Both sites are rolling out a four game late slate which kicks off at 8PM EST so this is a great day to load up on NBA DFS and get let loose on your bankroll a bit!
Interestingly enough, we do not have much injury news to monitor on the early slate with the biggest news being the status of Kyle Lowry who has missed the last three games for the Raptors. Lowry was able to do some light shooting work at practice Friday but still missed Toronto’s game against the Warriors and is officially listed as questionable for this game against the Sixers.
I certainly understand the appeal of DeMar DeRozan ($17K and $9.2K) who gets a massive usage bump and put up 60+ fantasy points against the Sixers earlier this year but the price is getting to a point where I think you simply have to jump off. In the three games Lowry has missed, DD has put up 30, 39 and 51 fantasy points with his best game being his last one against the Warriors where he shot the ball 31 times at nearly 60% from the floor and put up 42 actual points. My issue is – if DeRozan is taking 30+ shot attempts, scoring 42 actual points and still barely scraping by at value – isn’t there way more downside than upside here? DD is an all-out fade for me on this slate and I am actually hoping we get the early news that Lowry is out so people utilize their salary space on DeRozan.
The most interesting choice I think you have on this slate is how you intend to attack Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.9K and $10.5K) who is priced at drastically different levels between the two sites. On FantasyDraft Giannis is by far the most expensive player available at over $2,000 more than Joel Embiid and John Wall but on FanDuel he is actually cheaper than Wall and the same price as Embiid.
The question with Giannis is, are we paying top price for a guy who has failed to top 40 fantasy points in each of his last three outings or are we looking to attack the player who just dropped 66 against this same Wizards team a few games ago. On FantasyDraft the price is simply too high for me to take a risk, allocating nearly 20% of my salary cap but on FanDuel where he only costs 17% of your cap he is certainly playable especially since you need to roster two SF’s.
NBA DFS – New York, New York – Stack City
If you read my Picks and Pivots column on Sunday you know I was all in on a Pelicans/Knicks stack and today as the Knicks and Nets tangle in Brooklyn, I am going right back to the well. Now, I will say that there is risk here with the Knicks playing on a back to back after a OT game but with no travel involved this is about the “safest” back to back situation you could think of. This game has the second highest total and second fastest projected pace on the early slate while sporting a 1.5 point spread so it has all the check marks we look for when utilizing Vegas data – high scoring, fast paced and a close game!
For all the talk about a minutes restriction for our boy Tim Hardaway Jr. ($11,600) it sure didn’t seem like an issue as he logged 33 minutes and shot the ball 17 times including 10 3PA and 10 FTA on his way to 41 fantasy points. Lance Thomas may have drawn the start but make no mistake, Hardaway was the one playing starters minutes and started to OT frame against the Pelicans so feel free to go right back to THJ here in a pace up game environment where he can thrive while the price is simply too low relative to his upside!
Kristaps Porzingis ($15.5K) put up 51 fantasy points of his own and had 53 fantasy points against this very same Nets team earlier this season and with a team high 24 shot attempts against the Pelicans forms a formidable 1-2 punch in this up-tempo spot for New York. With 43 fantasy points on Sunday, Jarrett Jack ($9,700) has now averaged over 41 fantasy points in his last three outings and maybe most importantly logged 37 minutes of court time against the Pelicans. Jack is on fire right now and has left rookie Frank Ntilkina in the dust with only 16 minutes of court time on average over his last three games. Jack is under-priced for the match-up and his recent production and can be used in any format and even as a one-off play!
The Nets will remain without D’Angelo Russell again on Monday but that return is coming soon so this may be one of our last chances to ride Spencer Dinwiddie ($12.9K) in our NBA DFS line-ups. Dinwiddie has two 50 fantasy point games in his last four outings and dropped 50.25 against the Knicks the last time they met so the upside is very very real here. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($12,200) absolutely feasted the last time he faced the Knicks as he logged 48 fantasy points and has put up 33 or more fantasy points in three of his last four outings. DeMarrre Carroll ($9,800) has returned from injury in a big way, playing 27 and 30 minutes and racking up 30 and 36 fantasy points which puts him right at 3-3.5x value at this price point.
What is really interesting about this stack is that the price points all sit in an affordable tier that makes stacking this game and fitting in 1-2 high-end pieces a realistic approach or you can simply pick and choose your favorite spots and build a mini-stack around this under-priced plays in an elite game environment.
NBA DFS – Early Slate Pivot Plays:
So far we have touched on players in the Raptors/Sixers game (which has the highest projected pace), the Wizards/Bucks (which has the highest early total) and the battle in NY as our top spots but there are plenty of other favorable game environments to use as pivot plays today!
Kawhi Leonard ($16.1K) and the Spurs travel to Atlanta where they see the largest projected point increase, 6.5 more than their season average, and will take on a Hawks team ranked 28th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff. The Hawks rank dead last in DvP and Def-Eff defending the SF position which puts Kawhi in an interesting GPP spot here as he has put up between 43 and 49 fantasy points in three straight games while logging 28-30 minutes in each of those contests!
The last time the Bulls were on a slate we touched on the fact that they quietly rank 29th in Def-Eff on the season and in DFS circles it seems to me we do not treat them as a “must target players against” spot like we teams like the Suns/Nets because they play at a slower pace. The reality is, the Bulls rank 25th or worse in Def-Eff at the PG, SG, SF and PF positions which makes the Miami Heat one of my favorite pivot spots on the board today.
Hassan Whiteside ($13.4K) has yet to play over 30 minutes in the month of January, logging 25, 28 and 29 minutes in his last three outings but that has not stopped him from putting up over 41 fantasy points per game in those outings! Over the last two weeks, we have seen opposing Centers put up big games against the Bulls as Andre Drummond (59), Jusuf Nurkic (45) and Clint Capela (43) all had big nights racking up 15 boards each in their games. Whiteside has 15 rebounds in two of his last three games and this looks like an interesting spot to go back to him here as his price remains depressed and the rebounding upside is simply off the charts in this spot!
John Henson ($8.6K) is not a player that usually jumps out to me but it was interesting to me to see the success he has had against the Wizards so far this season – putting up double-doubles in both previous outings with two blocked shots in each contest while averaging 35 fantasy points per game! On paper this is not a match-up that would seemingly be all that favorable as the Wizards are a top 10 defense and 7th in DvP versus opposing Centers but the Wizards have been extremely vulnerable against opposing Centers the last two weeks!
Here are the lines and fantasy point outputs for starting centers against the Wizards the last four game:
- Bismack Biyombo – 51 fantasy points – 21 points and 13 rebounds and 3 steals/blocks
- Ekpe Udoh – 48 fantasy points – 16 points, 9 rebounds and 6 steals/blocks
- John Henson – 37 fantasy points – 11 points, 11 rebounds and 4 steals/blocks
- Marc Gasol – 50 fantasy points – 17 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocks.
Are you seeing a trend here? Do not overlook the upside that Henson has here as similar value centers like Biyombo and Udoh have dropped 50 spots against this same Wizards team in back to back games!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up (Early Slate):
PG. Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400)
PG: Jarrett Jack ($5,600)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500)
SG: Caris LeVert ($5,500)
SF: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400)
SF: DeMarre Carroll ($5,200)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900)
PF: John Henson ($5,100)
C: Hassan White ($7,700)
Note – still have $700 left in this build.
Slate Overview: The early slate looks like a great one to build around the mid-tier as if you opt to pay down from a star like Giannis, you have the ability to build a high upside balanced line-up. Personally, I am looking to build around the Knicks/Nets core as a result of the high projected total and pace and the price points make it very easy to stack this game and still grab 1-2 stars like Whiteside or Kawhi. If you are playing on DraftKings and want to dig into the Early Slate, head on over to our write-up for some more Early Slate NBA DFS ideas!
NBA DFS – Late Slate Overview:
Let me break down the late slate for you because honestly it seems as simple as this:
- Stack as many players in the Golden State – Cleveland game as possible
- Utilize the Clippers value in a huge pace up spot against the Rockets to make it work
This may be the chalk build as the day goes on but it also feels like the right path to attack this four game slate. The Warriors/Cavs game has a massive 231 total – nearly 20 points higher than any other game on the slate – and also has the second fastest projected pace on the late slate so you simply have to get exposure here in my opinion.
The Cavaliers side of the ball is easy – LeBron James ($20.1K) and Kevin Love ($13.9K) are the premier plays and you could argue the only legit options on a Cavaliers team that has lost three straight including two blowouts and a loss to the Pacers where they blew a 20+ point lead! These two teams played on Christmas Day and Love dropped 60 fantasy points on the back of 31 points and 18 rebounds and although he has been scuffling lately, the price point has come down with it which makes this a great spot to jump back on.
Outside of LeBron and Love, I am not going to try to force in any of the secondary pieces although on FanDuel where you need to roster two SG’s, you could make the argument for Dwayne Wade who put up 34 fantasy points against Golden State in their last outing.
The Warriors will come into this game full healthy against a Cavaliers team that is reeling defensively giving up 133 points to the Raptors and 127 points to Minnesota so getting Golden State exposure is the priority move on this slate. The issue with the Warriors when fully healthy is trying to figure out which stud(s) to target but for my builds I think I will look to prioritize Stephen Curry ($18.8K) who returned from injury and played 34 minutes against the Raptors. Curry missed the Christmas Day game against the Cavs where teammate Kevin Durant ($18.3K) went for 50+ fantasy points and either play can be used here but especially on FantasyDraft where guard seems weaker, I would rather utilize my salary for the top end guard!
Draymond Green ($14.1K) is a great second piece to pair with either Curry or Durant as his production comes from secondary stats that feed off the star players as he does not count on usage/volume for his fantasy stats! Green put up 51 fantasy points against this Cavaliers team on Christmas day with 12 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and 3 steals/blocks and makes for an elite forward play at a mid-level price with significant profit potential.
NBA DFS – Value in LA:
If you intend to stack up the Warriors/Cavaliers you are going to need value and thankfully the depleted Clippers offer that in droves! The Clippers are already without Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, C.J. Williams & Austin Rivers and DeAndre Jordan is questionable to play after missing the last game die to injury. Willie Reed ($8.3K) stepped into the starting line-up for the Clippers last game and went off, racking up 14 points, 13 rebounds and 42 fantasy points in only 26 minutes of action and would be an elite value play on this slate especially on FantasyDraft where you can play him alongside Kevin Love (Reed is C eligible on FanDuel).
The Clippers see the second largest pace boost on the late slate (behind Cleveland) and although I am not looking to pay up for Blake Griffin/Lou Williams as I allocate my salary elsewhere, I think the value plays in the Clippers backcourt are in a great spot tonight. Milos Teodosic ($9.9K) has played 23 and 25 minutes in each of his last two games since returning from injury while putting up 22 fantasy points per game. If Milos is only going to play 20-25 minutes then the price may seem too high but if we get word that his minutes will tick closer to 30 minutes tonight as a result of the Clippers injuries then I have no problem paying this freight.
Tyrone Wallace ($8.9K) has played over 30 minutes in four of his last five games and has mixed in three solid games (20-25 fantasy points) with one 40 spot against the Warriors. My interest in Wallace/Milos really is tied to the short-handed nature of the Clippers and the pace up environment of this game but if they become too chalky then I think there is a viable pivot!
The Pacers/Jazz game has the second slowest projected pace of any game in action today so this is not a spot we want to aggressively target but there are injuries on the Jazz side of the ball that put some interesting pieces into play.
We already know Rudy Gobert is out and the Jazz are now going to be without Thabo Sefolosha for the season which opens up a spot in the starting five for one of the Jazz wing players. The last few games we have seen Joe Johnson is the primary sub for Thabo and the fact he has played 25+ minutes in each of his last three games make him an interesting target. Rodney Hood ($9.4K) is the player I have the most GPP interest in as he will either be asked to join the starting rotation (where they move Ingles to SF) or he could be the high usage play off the bench! Hood has double-digit shot attempts in 9 of his last 10 games and could make for a sneaky GPP pivot on this slate at
If you need a pure punt play, take a look at Royce O’Neal who played 18 minutes off the bench when Thabo got injured and racked up a double-double in limited court time hitting 5-6x value on FanDuel in each of his last two games and will now get expanded run due to the injury to Sefolosha!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up (Main Slate):
PG: Stephen Curry ($10,200)
PG: Milos Teodosic ($4,800)
SG: Donavan Mitchell ($7,400)
SG: Rodney Hood ($4,600)
SF: LeBron James ($11,400)
SF: Royce O’Neal ($3,700)
PF: Draymond Green ($8,200)
PF: Montrezl Harrell ($5,400)
C: Willie Reed ($4,300)
Slate Overview: The late slate seems way more cut and dry – stack up Golden State/Cleveland studs and fill in value around them. The Clippers are spot #1 on my value tour but I do like the pivot to the Jazz who are short-handed and open up some interesting value on the wings with Thabo Sefolosha out. Enjoy the full day of NBA DFS action today and stay tuned to Twitter as we look to update the news and notes throughout the day!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!