DraftKings NBA picks January 16: Stack the Pelican frontcourt!

OAKLAND, CA – DECEMBER 25: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks on while there’s a break in the action against Golden State Warriors during an NBA basketball game at ORACLE Arena on December 25, 2017 in Oakland, California.(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks January 16: Stack the Pelican frontcourt!

With only four games tonight, it is a stark contrast from the extravaganza for Martin Luther King Jr day yesterday. We still have some strong players out there, so even though this is a short slate, we still have to watch our dollars tonight.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,300): Lillard’s price is inflated on the short slate, but he does have a great matchup with the Suns. Lillard has 100.5 DraftKings points in two tries against the Suns so far this year. That put him close to 5.5x value. I would expect him at 5x value at the very least tonight.

Kyrie Irving ($8,500): Irving has carried the Celtics offense at times this year. He has also been far under value almost as many times. That said, Irving puts up enough stats in other categories that he is still a threat for 5x value even when his shot isn’t falling. I prefer Lillard, but this matchup with the Pelicans is a good one for Irving if he can shake his shooting woes.

Honorable Mention:

Elfrid Payton ($6,500): Payton is worth playing when the matchup is right. He put up 46.25 on the Wizards over the weekend. His matchup with Minnesota tonight may be even better. Payton put up 41.5 DraftKings points on the Timberwolves in the first meeting. I would expect somewhere around that again, which puts Payton well over 6x value. You don’t have to pay top dollar to get top value tonight.

Jeff Teague ($6,400): The Magic still can’t stop opposing point guards. It was evident in the first game against Minnesota this year. Teague scorched the Magic for 49.75 DraftKings points in that game. I stacked Teague with Payton the first time these teams played. That should be a lucrative stack again tonight.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,300): Smith is consistently putting up between 30 and 35 DraftKings points per game lately. Denver is a good matchup for Smith on paper, but he came in a shade under value at 30.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. If you are worried about high ownership on the others in this tier, Smith should at least be able to keep you competitive. However, you will have to hit somewhere else to catch up to Teague and Payton.

Dark Horses:

Jamal Murray ($5,700): Murray was right around 5x value for this price with 28 DraftKings points against Dallas in the first meeting. However, Murray did that in only 28 minutes. Murry has topped that minutes mark in eight of the last ten games. My concern with Murray is that he is just 2-14 from the floor over the last two games. If his shot is off, he has virtually no chance of hitting value tonight. The silver lining is that those games were against San Antonio and Memphis. Murray should get back on track tonight.

Yogi Ferrell ($4,500): Ferrell’s stock is trending upward again on the heels of three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. He has been playing big minutes due to J.J. Barea missing time with a groin injury. Barea has already been ruled out tonight, so its all systems go on Ferrell. He is a superb value play tonight!

My pick: Teague(PG), Ferrell(G); Lillard(PG), Payton(G), Teague(UTIL), Ferrell(SG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 25: Jimmy Butler #23 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball during the first half of the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center on December 25, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($9,200): Butler put up 39.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Magic this year, but that meeting occurred back in November when Butler was still getting integrated into his new team. For the last month, Butler has been dominant. Not many teams have been able to contain him lately. If you have the cash, pay up for Butler at a weaker position tonight.

Devin Booker ($8,000): I’m not crazy about this matchup for Booker, but he does have a few things going for him tonight. First off, his price is down to a more manageable level. It takes him 40 DraftKings points to hit value tonight, a mark that he has hit in six of the last 11 games. Booker also has 77.75 DraftKings points in two prior games with Portland this year. That is very close to value at this price. If T.J. Warren is forced to sit again with his balky back, Booker could be in for a bigger night as well.

Honorable Mention:

C.J. McCollum ($7,700): McCollum missed one of the prior games against the Suns. In the other, he put up 44.25 DraftKings points. That is well over value in this price range, and I feel a little better about C.J. than Booker. Both are mostly shooters, but McCollum’s lows don’t seem to be quite as severe as Booker’s. That said, Booker has more upside, especially if Warren sits.

Gary Harris ($6,000): Dallas is the best team in the league defending shooting guards, so why in the world would we use Harris? Well, Harris put up 37.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Dallas. Harris also has hit 5x value in five of his last seven games. Statistics say this is a risk, but bucking this trend could get you a little ahead of the pack if Harris comes through against the Mavs again.

Dark Horses:

Mario Hezonja ($4,600): There is still risk with using Hezonja since he is not that established as a bench commodity just yet. His minutes could dry up at a moment’s notice. However, his sojourn to the bench with the return of Gordon has gone pretty well so far. Hezonja has played at least 26 minutes in four of the five games. That gives him a good shot at value against Minnesota’s bench.

Jamal Crawford ($3,500): Crawford doesn’t play enough minutes to give you a monster game at this price, but he is a constant source of value lately. Crawford has at least 5x value in seven of the last eight games, but has only topped 6x value once. I prefer the consistency in cash games, but if you need to go this cheap, there really aren’t any other options.

My pick: Crawford(SG); N/A

NEW ORLEANS, LA – DECEMBER 29: Harrison Barnes #40 of the Dallas Mavericks shoots the ball over Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on December 29, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Harrison Barnes ($6,800): Barnes had a huge game against Denver in the first meeting, putting up 40.5 DraftKings points in that game. Denver is still a little beat up in the frontcourt. Enough so that I don’t think Lyles can handle Barnes by himself, and I don’t think it would do any good to put Jokic on him. Denver didn’t have an answer in the first meeting. Let’s see if they come up with a plan here.

T.J. Warren ($6,400): If Warren’s back is okay, he is worth a swing here. Portland is right in the middle of the league against small forwards. Warren has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of the last six games. However, the back issue worries me a little. I would prefer he sits so we could roll with Jackson again.

Honorable Mention:

Andrew Wiggins ($6,100): You have to come into this with the realization that Wiggins is not going to be the player that he was last season or the first six weeks of this season. His role has changed with the arrival of Butler. However, DraftKings’ adjusted pricing for Wiggins is pretty fair for Wiggins here. Wiggins has not been under 27 DraftKings points in the last seven games. He did well against Orlando earlier this season. There is potential here, but not the huge upside that we covet for GPP play.

Will Barton ($5,600): Again, Dallas is in the top five in defense of small forwards, but Barton torched the Mavs for 46 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Now the bad news: Harris has been playing far more consistent minutes than Barton has lately. With Denver healthy except for Millsap, the minutes aren’t freely available for Barton every game. Keep an eye on the lineups leading up to lock though. If any news comes through about Barton starting, lock him in.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($4,800): Jackson has played 30 minutes in each of the last two games. He put up 75 DraftKings points over those two games. If Warren returns, the Suns will likely send Jackson back to the bench even though they shouldn’t. If Jackson starts, start him. Otherwise there is too much risk involved. The problem is that the Suns lineup likely wont be resolved until long after the full slate lock.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700): Aminu has been struggling against bigger teams lately. He will get a reprieve tonight with the small Suns. Aminu has 52.75 DraftKings points in the first two meetings with Phoenix this year. That would put him right about 5.5x value. Ignore his inconsistency lately. Aminu will have a solid game against the Suns.

My pick: N/A; Wiggins(SF), Barnes(PF), Jackson(F)

DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 09: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic is fouled by Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks in the first half at American Airlines Center on January 9, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,200): Davis put up one of the biggest games of the season by anyone on the Knicks over the weekend. Boston is possibly even weaker defending the four. Davis has been huge over the last ten games for the Pelicans, averaging almost 30 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. When you add in the 2.5 blocks, it’s easy to see why Davis is putting up huge numbers. There is huge upside here tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,600): The Timberwolves have ascended to best in the league defending power forwards. So it is pretty surprising that Gordon put up 44.25 DraftKings points on Minnesota in the first meeting. We all know that Gordon is capable of putting up big numbers when the matchup is right. It doesn’t look right here, but the past stats tell another story.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($7,400): I don’t really like the matchup here for Horford, but Horford has hit 5x value in four of the last seven games. Several power forwards have managed to do well against Davis, but none of them have been quite as diminutive as Horford.

Trey Lyles ($5,500): Lyles has been outstanding with Paul Millsap out. He put up 22 DraftKings points in just 15 minutes in the first meeting with Dallas. Lyles should play about twice that much tonight, so 6x value is likely, and even more is possible.

Dark Horses:

Dragan Bender ($4,600): Bender did not hit a shot against the Pacers on Saturday. The minutes were still there, but Bender’s lack of production led to a bigger night for Alex Len. This is a situation that we most likely wont be able to decipher by the time the lineup locks. We really need late swap tonight! At any rate, if Marquese Chriss starts, use him. Otherwise, I would probably ignore this situation. There is probably a 50/50 chance that Len starts over Bender, but we wont know early enough.

Daniel Theis ($3,800): The German import has played at least 20 minutes in each of the last three games. He has responded with 70.25 DraftKings points in just three games! Theis should see decent run against the Pelicans tonight, and likely when one or both of the towers are out. There is still solid value here.

My pick: Lyles(SF), Davis(PF), Theis(F); N/A

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 06: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves scores over Danilo Gallinari #8 of the LA Clippers during the first half at Staples Center on December 6, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,500): Cousins has dropped 60 in each of the last two games. Cousins and Davis put up 145 DraftKings points combined on the Knicks on Sunday. There is a great chance that the two could get close to that tonight against the undersized Boston frontcourt. If you can afford both of them, go for it. If you can only go for one, I like Davis just a little bit more.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500): Towns isn’t always a lock for value, but against Orlando, who is still without Nikola Vucevic, I like his chances. Towns has nine straight double-doubles. That does not guarantee value, but Towns has the ability to dominate this game.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Jokic ($8,700): Jokic stuff the stat sheet most nights. This is a great matchup for him against Dallas as well, so Jokic should at least hit value for the fourth time in five games. Only Marc Gasol was able to contain him. Dallas doesn’t have anyone that can.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): Nurkic has lost minutes in some games recently, so he is more of a risk than usual. However, Nurkic did put up 59 DraftKings points in 50 minutes in the two games against Phoenix earlier this year. I would think that Portland would elect to roll Nurkic out there against Chandler, but this is another situation that we wont have solved before lineup lock.

Dark Horses:

Bismack Biyombo ($5,600): Biyombo has put in some work on the offensive end lately. He has poured in 35 points over the last two games. In one of those, Biyombo missed a double double in rebounds instead of points! If Biyombo continues with his newfound offensive prowess, which he should against Towns, he is a strong value play at this price.

Tyson Chandler ($4,500): Chandler has struggled against Portland in the two games this year. However, I don’t see the Suns rolling Greg Monroe out there anytime soon. That is very unfortunate for us DFS players. I actually think Monroe would do better against the Blazers. That said, Chandler is a good enough rebounder to hit value at this low price.

My pick: Cousins(C), Biyombo(UTIL); Biyombo(C)

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