Matchup Breakdown: Jaren Jackson vs. Moritz Wagner
Michigan upset Michigan State on Saturday, handing the Spartans their second loss in three games with an 82-72 victory in East Lansing. The Wolverines dictated the pace of play and were able to generate quality offensive looks consistently against one of the best defenses in college basketball. The game unveiled some problems that the Spartans have to sort through, and was Michigan’s signature win on the year.
The matchup was a good one from an NBA Draft scouting perspective, as it featured two of the Big Ten’s best NBA prospects: Spartans lottery prospect Jaren Jackson Jr. and Michigan center Moritz Wagner.
Jackson is one of this year’s most unheralded prospects, a stellar modern big man with strong NBA potential as a rim protector, perimeter defender and offensive outlet man at the five. He’s been overshadowed by the big names in this draft like Trae Young and DeAndre Ayton, but he ranks fourth on the Step Back Big Board due to his rare combination of two-way intelligence, physical tools and upside.
Read More: The Step Back’s 2018 NBA Draft Big Board
Wagner, a German-born junior who ranks 35th on the Step Back’s latest Big Board update, has quietly been one of college basketball’s best offensive centers this year, averaging 14.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game on 63.5 percent true shooting. While he is a below-average NBA athlete, his shooting, strength and perimeter fluidity are draws for NBA teams looking for offense-focused fives.
Wagner won the individual comparison Saturday with a dominant showing — 27 points on 8-for-13 shooting, four rebounds and two blocks in 27 minutes. But Jackson didn’t struggle, finishing with 19 points and six blocks in 27 minutes of his own. The game was a nice showcase of both players’ strengths and weaknesses, and their matchups on individual possessions did a nice job of highlighting both Wagner’s NBA value and Jackson’s potential strengths and weaknesses regarding him playing the five at the next level.
An important caveat in assessing this matchup is that Wagner and Jackson barely spent time defending each other directly. Michigan relies heavily on small-ball lineups, while the Spartans boast the monster frontcourt of Jackson, Miles Bridges and Nick Ward. So while Wagner played exclusively five, Jackson was tasked with defending the perimeter for much of the game, leaving Wagner to Ward and backup center Gavin Schilling.
Wagner dominated these matchups, dragging the slower Ward through pick-and-pops and consistently generating easy open shots out of these looks.
Jackson likewise found much of his success playing to his strengths against Michigan’s other frontcourt players. He generated 13 free throw attempts, mostly off dump-offs or out of face-up looks, where Michigan lacked the athleticism to contest without fouling.
Jackson only faced one possession with his Wagner as his primary defender, and it is a good starting point for this discussion because it makes it perfectly clear why Jackson is a lottery pick and Wagner’s probably a future 2nd-rounder — athleticism. Jackson gets Wagner isolated in a face-up opportunity, and Wagner never has a chance against Jackson’s fluid mobility off the dribble.
Most of Wagner and Jackson’s interactions took place in help defense, with Wagner contesting Jackson twice and Jackson facing three possessions of Wagner coming at him. Both had hits and misses in these possessions for different reasons. Let’s start with Wagner’s defense.
On this possession, Jackson gets a drop-off pass close to the rim, defended by Duncan Robinson. Jackson easily uses his size to leverage inside position, but Wagner rotates from the weak side and gets the block through his length. Wagner has a 7-foot wingspan and he’s very well-coordinated, able to contort away from contact, removing the chance of a foul as he gets a quality contest. While he’s not quick enough to stay with Jackson on the perimeter, he can reach up and still bother a player with Jackson’s frame from the weak side.
However, Wagner wasn’t as successful when facing Jackson directly. Wagner’s had flashes of high level interior defense, particularly against Mohamed Bamba earlier this year. But in one attempt to stop Jackson on a drive, Jackson was able to use his advanced body control to change trajectory, finish and draw the foul.
On the opposite end, Jackson’s rim protection was a more demonstrable threat. Only one of his six blocks came against Wagner, and he is much more threatening in terms of deterrence than Wagner can ever hope to be. The psychological aspect of his ability to come out of nowhere and reject a shot away from the rim is very enticing to NBA defenses. Wagner thinks he has an advantage against Ward thanks to his shooting, but never sees Jackson coming.
You can see this threat manifest itself later in the game, when Wagner gets a free lane downhill against Ward but panics when he sees Jackson rotating over.
Jackson did have one mental lapse, misreading his help assignment and neglecting to rotate, allowing an easy Wagner dunk.
But overall, Jackson did well to deter Wagner at the rim and from the mid-post. Most of Wagner’s 2-point baskets came with Jackson on the bench, and his impact elsewhere helped bail out Michigan State’s guard play, which was mostly bad on the defensive end throughout the game. Jackson is a legitimate threat to protect the rim at the four in the NBA, similar to Paul Millsap. His timing and use of his frame in contesting shots is arguably the most advanced in this class, far ahead of Ayton and Marvin Bagley and even slightly ahead of Bamba in terms of technical skill.
Wagner, meanwhile, showed once again that he can at least compete on the interior with NBA level bigs. Consistency and athletic mismatches are weaknesses for him here, but he’s a high intelligence defender and knows his limitations. Wagner’s never going to be a plus defender in the NBA, but he showed that there’s at least hope he can contribute, which makes him playable when combined with his offensive game.
The other area where these two matched up was in rebounding, where the matchup identified a potential issue for Jackson. Neither player was prolific in this department (four boards for Wagner, three for Jackson) but Wagner had the clear advantage when it came to their fights for box outs under the basket. Jackson often let Wagner get inside position on him, and while Jackson did establish a few seals, Wagner often was able to shove Jackson off the spot to put himself into solid position.
Jackson is a decent offensive rebounder, but he struggles with battling bigger opponents for positioning on the defensive glass. He doesn’t appear to have the lower body strength to be able to be effective on the glass in the NBA at this point. This is fine — he’s one of the youngest players in the class, after all — but Wagner isn’t the strongest nor the quickest big man, and it was worth noting that Jackson was only able to seal Wagner off for a rebound once in five tries throughout the game.
Overall, this was a strong performance from both team’s best draft prospects. Jackson demonstrated his finishing ability and rim protection at a high level, and the game definitely had the impression that he carried Michigan State when few of his teammates outside of Bridges stepped up. Jackson is one of the best pure athletes in this class, and he demonstrates game-in and game-out that he’s a high-IQ player, even if he makes the occasional mental lapse. At his young age, he should be considered a high-upside proposition worth long-term focus, similar to what Jonathan Isaac showed last season.
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But more than Jackson, I came away from this game encouraged by Wagner. I am higher on Wagner than most, but his combination of feel, shooting and handle on the offensive end is a nice package for a stretch five. The defense is a concern, but seeing him have some bright spots against Jackson and Ward on the glass and on the interior was encouraging. Wagner also shows high IQ on the defensive end, and that’s going to play well with NBA teams, especially as his offensive value is quite high with his shooting touch and potential as a handler. He has a chance to be an effective situational big at the next level, and this performance helped solidify that feeling.