DraftKings NBA picks January 17: Is Jokic the best option?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 17: Who is the best top option?
We are up to ten games tonight. Most of the league is in action, which means there are plenty of stars out. How can we afford the ones we want? Are we better off with a balanced lineup? Let’s check it out!
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The money line was at really high for a four game slate at 289. One lineup was destroyed by the Suns value and Trey Lyles. The other didn’t have Davis.
The winning lineup was way up to 370.5 DraftKings points. He hit it big with Devin Booker and the Joker and got value from Evan Fournier, Barton, and Gary Harris. Not to mention another big game from Biyombo.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,600): It’s hard to justify paying this much for Russ on a loaded slate, but you can’t argue with the production. Westbrook has only been under 50 DraftKings points once in the last 14 games. That game he still had 48. You are paying for one of the best floors around right now and the potential for 70 against the Lakers.
Stephen Curry ($10,400): Curry put up 52.75 DraftKings points in the first game with the Bulls. The Bulls have remained constant as one of the worst teams in the league defending the point. Curry’s floor is lower than Westbrook’s, but despite five of the last ten games being under 50, Curry has not been lower than 43 in that span. I tend to think that Westbrook will be enough above Curry against the Lakers to warrant spending the extra cash, but Curry isn’t a bust if you want to fade Westbrook.
John Wall ($9,700): The time off worked wonders for Wall. Wall has only been under 50 DraftKings points twice in the last nine games, and both of those were above 45. He also torched Utah in that span and put up 53.75 in the first game with the Hornets. Wall isn’t a step down tonight. He should be close to Curry’s numbers, but don’t expect him to catch Westbrook.
Honorable Mention:
Lou Williams ($8,700): Williams has been lighting up everyone lately. He has averaged 34 points per game over his last five games. Williams has a topped 5x value in all but one of those games. Denver is solid against the point, but when a pure shooter is on a hot streak like this, it’s worth taking notice. Williams can score on anyone right now.
Goran Dragic ($7,600): Dragic has been playing very well in the absence of Dion Waiters. He has picked up his scoring, and has been over 5x value in all but one of his last eight games. Dragic put up 34.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Bucks, and that was with Waiters in the lineup. He should have no problems hitting 5x value tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($7,500): Schroder has at least 5x value in three straight games, and is taking on a Pelicans team that gives up a lot of points to opposing point guards. He struggled with his shot in the first meeting with New Orleans, but it Schroder keeps his current hot streak going, 5x value is very likely tonight.
Kemba Walker ($7,500): Wall wasn’t the only one that had a big game in the first meeting. Kemba put up 38.25 DraftKings points on Wall, so if you are building a balanced lineup, Walker is a great play in the middle tier. He likely doesn’t have the upside of Williams or Schroder though, which may make Walker better suited for cash games.
Dark Horses:
Milos Teodosic ($5,200): Teodosic has been more consistent since his return from plantar fasciitis this time around. He even showed an improved shot last game against Houston. His stock is definitely trending in the right direction, though Teodosic has yet to post big numbers in any game thus far.
Josh Hart ($4,100): This is only in play if Lonzo Ball is out again. Ingram will be back, but I would guess that Hart’s performance on Monday would leave him with the start over Tyler Ennis. Fortunately, the Lakers are in Oklahoma City so we could have a starting lineup prior to the full lineup lock. If Hart is in there, use him. Even if only Ball sits, use Hart.
Andrew Harrison ($3,900): Harrison is still starting at the off guard, and is producing good numbers for his price tag. If you need to go this cheap, you aren’t going to find any guard with more potential than Harrison.
My pick: Walker(PG), Harrison(G); Wall(PG)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Tyreke Evans ($8,500): Evans has topped 5x value in nine of the last 11 games, even at this elevated price. The Knicks are not a great matchup for Evans, but I’m not a huge fan of any of the upper tier at the position. Evans provides the most upside because of his ability to do everything.
Bradley Beal ($7,700): Beal put up 36 DraftKings points in the first game against Charlotte, and he was just 7-22 from the field. If Beal can get his shot to fall tonight, he could be in for a big game. Beal has at least 5x value in seven of the last eight games.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,300): The Kings have actually defended the perimeter well, but Mitchell is such a good shooter that it may not matter. Only Denver has been able to hold Mitchell under 30 DraftKings points since Christmas, and it wasn’t that far under. Mitchell is good enough to hit value no matter what the Kings throw at him.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($6,700): Holiday has put up some really big numbers at times this season. Including last night. Holiday has three straight games of more than 7x value. The Hawks can’t defend the off guard well at all. There is a ton of potential here.
Klay Thompson ($6,600): Thompson has one of his best games of the year against the Bulls in the first meeting. Klay put up 40 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against the Bulls the first time around. It’s hard to predict just which one of the Warriors will go off with the whole team healthy, and this has blowout potential. That said, Thompson’s price is low enough to use him.
Gary Harris ($6,000): Harris played big minutes and put up big numbers again last night. Forget where the opposing team ranks defensively. Dallas is in the top three defensively against shooting guards, and look what Harris did there. I like him a lot against the Clippers tonight.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,900): Hardaway has 69.5 DraftKings points in his first two games back from injury. Memphis is not very good against shooting guards, and his price is still a lot lower than it should be. The potential far outweighs the price here.
Kent Bazemore ($5,500): Bazemore lit up the Pelicans for 44.5 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting. Bazemore’s inconsistency makes him hard to rely on, but he has hit 5x value in three of the last four games.
Tyrone Wallace ($4,600): Dallas is not one of the better matchups that Wallace will have, but he is getting the minutes. The production isn’t far behind either. Wallace only needs 23 DraftKings points to hit value, a mark that he has topped in four of his six games. If you need to go this cheap, there are worse options.
My pick: Hardaway(SG); Holiday(SG), Harris(G), Hardaway(F), Bazemore(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,600): Durant missed the first game against the Bulls this year, which is another reason that I am nervous about using anyone from this team. As far as ability goes, Durant has a great matchup and the ability to put up big numbers regardless of who else is on the court.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,700): The Spurs are letting Kawhi play around 30 minutes per game now. While it is a little harder for him to reach value at this price, it’s hard to pass on someone as talented as this in a solid situation. That said, Leonard has at least 40 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. He should hit that mark tonight, but will it be far enough over to hit value?
Honorable Mention:
Paul George ($7,500): George put up 37 DraftKings in just 27 minutes in the first meeting with the Clippers, but has missed 5x value in three of the last four games. However, we know the ability that George has. He can score at will even on this team.
Will Barton ($5,500): Barton also had a good night last night, but his production has been sporadic lately. That said, the Clippers are the second worst team in the league defending the small forward. This is a risk though considering this is one of the late tips. We may not know Barton’s status before lineup lock.
Dark Horses:
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,200): Bogdanovic has been rolling lately, putting up at least 25 DraftKings points in each of the last five games. Bogdanovic hasn’t dropped below the 20 point threshold in the last 15 games. That is a solid floor, and the ceiling is getting higher with Bogdanovic starting.
Marvin Williams ($4,300): Williams put up 26 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Washington. Both he and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have good matchup here, but Williams is the solid producer. In fact, Williams has over 30 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. MKG is more of a risk.
My pick: Williams(SF); Williams(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,500): Davis has shredded the last two opponents, and Atlanta is also a good matchup for the Brow. This is the same case as the last couple of matchups. Atlanta doens’t have anyone up front that can handle either of these beasts. If I have to choose one, it’s still Davis, but it may not be a bad idea to use both if you have the cash.
Blake Griffin ($9,000): This is going to be tough for Denver without Paul Millsap. Griffin is back to putting up big numbers, especially in good matchups. This one with Denver qualifies with Millsap out.
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($8,300): Green is questionable, so keep up with starting lineups prior to tip. If he is in there, I like the matchup for Green, and it doesn’t bode well for the Bulls’ three headed monster at the four. The status of Green will have an impact on DFS play tonight, so pay close attention.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000): Porzingis wasn’t great against Memphis in the first meeting, but this is still a good matchup. The Unicorn is going good right now, racking up five straight games of at least 5x value. He has burned us before, but he does have the hot hand.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Okay, I just can’t justify a fade here. Markkanen put up 26.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Markkanen has been over 5x value in eight of the last ten games. There is some risk involved here, but it’s a solid calculated risk.
Dark Horses:
Kyle Kuzma ($5,900): Does it even matter who the Lakers a playing? Kuzma put up 26.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder this season. Kuzma now has a streak of five straight games at 5x value or more. His upside isn’t as high with Larry Nance and Brook Lopez back, but Kuzma still has the highest upside of any of them.
Jordan Bell ($4,500): Bell did very little with his spot start on Monday, but there is potential here. Bell put up 36 DraftKings points on the Bulls in the first meeting with Pachulia out. If the Warriors start Bell again, he could come pretty close to those number again. There is also a bit of upside if this turns into a blowout.
Skal Labissiere ($4,300): The Kings have announced that they are going to reduce the role of the veterans for the rest of the season. That’s bad news for Zach Randolph, who has had some big games this year. Labissiere will start if he shoulder is okay, and if he does, Labissiere is a good play at this price. If Skal sits, then Randolph is a superb play at his price with an expanded role.
My pick: Davis(PF), Bell(PF); N/A
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,800): Boogie bullied the Hawks for 58 DraftKings points in the first meeting. The Hawks do have Dedmon back, but I’m not sure how much that will help. I’m still mostly on Davis, but ownership will be lower on Boogie if you are after low owned players.
Nikola Jokic ($8,900): Jokic had a monster game against Dallas last night. The Clippers aren’t that great defensively even when Jordan is in there. With Jordan out, Jokic may be the top play of the night. He has that much upside.
Andre Drummond ($8,800): Toronto doesn’t have the size to handle Drummond here. With so many good option at center, I don’t really see the reason to pay up for Cousins. For me, Jokic and Drummond are probably going to come pretty close to Boogie’s output. On a night with so many options to choose from, saving money is likely a good idea.
Honorable Mention:
Hassan Whiteside ($7,400): Whiteside racked up 39 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against the Bucks earlier this year. The Heat have upped Whiteside’s minutes to around 30 per game now. If he plays 30 against the Bucks, I see Whiteside at 6x value. He is a viable option if you can’t afford the upper tier.
Steven Adams ($6,500): This is a really good matchup for Adams. He put up 30.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Lakers. When you add in the fact that Adams has turned in 79.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, Adams makes a strong value pick tonight.
Derrick Favors ($6,400): Favors has been a solid value play with Rudy Gobert out. He has a dozen straight games of 24 DraftKings points or more. Cauley-Stein is a solid defender, but I still don’t see Favors being completely shut down.
Dark Horses:
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,200): Cauley-Stein has been strong since the Kings have given him consistent minutes. The Jazz are tough up front, so there is more risk involved with WCS than any of the other options so far.
Montrezl Harrell ($4,500): We should feel fortunate that the Clippers are decent individuals and already ruled out Jordan. That means Harrell should see plenty of run tonight. Harrell has four straight games of 22 or more DraftKings points. He should be able to do that with ease tonight.
My pick: Jokic(C), Harrell(UTIL); Whiteside(C), Harrell(PF)
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