DraftKings NBA picks January 18: Should we pay for LeBron?

We are up to ten games tonight. Most of the league is in action, which means there are plenty of stars out. How can we afford the ones we want? Are we better off with a balanced lineup? Let’s check it out!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Chris Paul ($9,500): The Beard is supposed to be back, but he will also be limited to around 25 minutes. Now, Harden can do a lot of damage in 25 minutes, but not enough to justify his price. Paul’s numbers will likely slump a little, but I am going with Paul here based on the horrible Minnesota point defense.

Kyrie Irving ($8,300): Irving has put up 120.5 DraftKings points on the Sixers in three games this season. Watch out for status updates since Irving didn’t practice yesterday, citing shoulder soreness. There is a chance that he could be held out of this one. If he is, a lot of value opens up on the wing for Boston.

Honorable Mention:

Elfrid Payton ($6,400): Cleveland’s perimeter defense is improving, but not enough for me to move off of Payton for this price. His inconsistency is still maddening, but Payton has the upside you want in a GPP play. He put up 35.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland. Just be aware that Payton has bene below 20 DraftKings points three times in the last four games. That puts a lot of risk into this bargain pick.

Jeff Teague ($6,300): The matchup is nowhere near as appealing, but Teague has not been below 22 DraftKings points in the last dozen games. He provides the consistency that we wish Payton had, but Teague also has no chance at dropping 40. Payton has done that three times in the last ten games.

Dark Horses:

Isaiah Thomas ($5,700): Lost in the game against the Warriors was the fact that Thomas played a season high 32 minutes in that game. His ceiling isn’t nearly what it was in Boston, but Thomas is still capable of putting up numbers in the range of what Kyrie did last year. If he is going to play 30 or more minutes again, Thomas is a solid bargain play with his price this low.

T.J. McConnell($4,400): With J.J. Redick out for at least a couple of weeks, McConnell has made his case for an extended run. McConnell has 75 DraftKings points in 58 minutes over the last two games. I would expect to see T.J. out there a lot more with Redick out, which makes him a superb value as long as his price remains this low.

My pick: McConnell(PG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 25: Jimmy Butler #23 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball during the first half of the game against the Los Angeles Lakers at the Staples Center on December 25, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Josh Lefkowitz/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($8,800): Butler turned in yet another strong game against Orlando. That was Butler’s sixth game over 50 DraftKings points in his last 12 tries. Butler gets another friendly matchup with Houston in basketball’s version of the run and shoot. There are going to be a lot of points scored in this game. It stands to reason that Butler would have another strong showing here.

C.J. McCollum ($7,300): You may be a bit surprised to not see Oladipo here, but McCollum shut him down in the first meeting. Meanwhile, McCollum put up 43.75 DraftKings points in that game. That’s not to say that Oladipo will struggle as much as he did in the first meeting, but I would still expect McCollum to be pretty close to what he did in the first game. That makes C.J. the far better value.

Honorable Mention:

Evan Fournier ($5,500): There are some pitfalls here in the middle tier. I’m not a huge fan of Eric Gordon with Harden back and against a team that defends the wing pretty well. Andrew Wiggins is third or fourth in the pecking order in that offense, so trying to rely on him is risky. Then we see Fournier with a good matchup against Cleveland, one in which he put up 28 DraftKings points on them in the first game. Fournier looks like a solid value pick here.

Terry Rozier ($4,700): If Irving can’t go, the start will fall to either Rozier or Shane Larkin. Rozier has been playing well off of the bench for the Celtics lately, so Boston could decide to leave him there. Even if Rozier doesn’t start, I see him getting a sizeable minutes bump if Irving is out. If not, Rozier has still hit value in three of the last five games, so there is potential there either way.

Dark Horses:

Jonathon Simmons ($4,600): Simmons is still seeing good run with the Magic with Terrence Ross out of the picture. Simmons put up 28 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland. Considering that Simmons has played at least 30 minutes in each of the last two games, I would say that his back issues are behind him. Simmons is an intriguing value play tonight, but lacks considerable upside.

Jamal Crawford ($3,500): There is no upside here, but Crawford keeps scoring in double digits off the bench. That makes him a solid source of 15-20 DraftKings points per night. Crawford is a safe pick if you need to go really cheap, just don’t expect a miracle.

My pick: Butler(SG), Simmons(G)

BOSTON, MA – NOVEMBER 16: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the third quarter against the Golden State Warriors at TD Garden on November 16, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the Warriors 92-88. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($11,300): The King is high priced, but his talent is magnified by the short slate. James has 109 DraftKings points in two games against the Magic so far this season. That would leave him a little under value for his price tag, but the fact remains that LeBron is the only player on this slate who is a guaranteed 50. If you have the money, pay up for the King!

Honorable Mention:

Jaylen Brown ($5,900): Brown hasn’t been anything special against the Sixers in three games this year, but there is some intrigue to this play. However, some pieces have to fall into place first. Both Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart are questionable, so if both sit, I really like Brown. If only Irving sits, I like Smart more. If Smart sits, Brown is a strong option. At least this is the early game so we know what’s going on before the entire lineup locks.

Thaddeus Young ($5,300): The Pacers let Young work through an awful slump at the end of December, and that seems to be paying dividends now. Young has at least 5x value in for of the last five games. This looks like a good place to use Young since the short slate leaves few viable options at this tier tonight.

Dark Horses:

AL-Farouq Aminu ($5,000): Aminu ate the Pacers alive in the first meeting. He put up 45.5 DraftKings points in that one playing mostly the four. If that is where Aminu starts this game, this is a dream matchup once again. A double double is imminent for Aminu tonight.

Pat Connaughton ($3,500): Connaughton has been very good over the last couple of weeks. He has scored in double digits in four of his last eight games. The Blazers have started to give Connaughton more run due to his instant points off the bench. There is some value here with Connaughton’s price this low.

My pick: James(SF)

DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 09: Aaron Gordon DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 09: Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic takes a shot against Harrison Barnes #40 of the Dallas Mavericks in the first half at American Airlines Center on January 9, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Aaron Gordon ($7,500): Gordon put up 44 DraftKings points on Cleveland in the first meeting. The Cavs aren’t any better than they were then up front either. Gordon may not hit 40 again, but I would expect him to be close. Gordon will be a solid value tonight with the potential for more.

Kevin Love ($7,400): Love has been far more consistent this year than last year, but he still doesn’t always hit value. Love has 72.5 DraftKings points in the two meetings with Orlando this year. That would put Love a little under value. However, the floor is good enough to roll him out there if you are worried about high ownership on Gordon.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($7,000): Horford has 112.25 DraftKings points in three prior games with Philly this season. That puts him a little above value for this price. Horford held his own against those New Orleans mammoths in his last outing. This could seem like a leisurely stroll compared to that game.

Dario Saric ($6,100): Saric has been right at 5x value in the three games with Boston this season. Saric has slowed down a little recently, but he is not far removed from three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. He has a solid floor, but the upside on Saric is magnified by this short slate. Just be careful against Boston’s stout defense.

Domantas Sabonis ($6,000): Sabonis has been very good with Myles Turner out. He has a dozen straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. His price actually dipped a little despite a solid performance against Utah. It shouldn’t have. This is a good matchup against Portland.

Dark Horses:

Jayson Tatum ($5,400): Tatum has performed well against the Sixers this season. The rookie has 79 DraftKings points in three games against them this year. Tatum isn’t the most consistent guy around, but he has a nice history, no matter how brief, against Philly.

Marcus Morris ($4,900): Morris has racked up 64.75 DraftKings points in his two games against the Sixers this year. His game a week ago resulted in 35.5 DraftKings points. It seems as though the potential is back for Morris, but it’s hard to put a lot of stock into just two games.

My pick: Gordon(PF)

CLEVELAND, OH – OCTOBER 5: Bismack Biyombo #11 of the Orlando Magic is blocked by Chris Andersen #00 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half of a preseason game at Quicken Loans Arena on October 5, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,400): Embiid’s price is down $700 from the game against Boston last week. Embiid only went for 41 DraftKings points in that game. We all know that the sky is the limit for Embiid, but Boston is tough on centers. I don’t see Embiid getting value tonight, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it did happen.

Clint Capela ($6,700): This is more based on what Towns has allowed this year. Capela’s inconsistency is a problem, but I would rather use Capela than Towns. The Rockets are pretty tough in the middle. There may be better options in this range, but Capela does have pretty good upside for GPP purposes.

Honorable Mention:

Bismack Biyombo ($6,200): Biyombo has 126.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. He is finally getting a chance to show the promise that the Magic thought he had. Biyombo has improved his offensive game and is still a beast on the boards and with blocked shots. There is no reason not to use Biyombo right now.

Dark Horses:

Daniel Theis ($3,800): The German import is progressing quite well. Theis has 86 DraftKings points over the last four games, which makes him a superb value right now. He put up 20.75 of those on the Celtics last Thursday. If you are paying up for LeBron tonight, you need this strong of a value pick.

Khem Birch ($3,300): Birch turned in a double double in just 19 minutes against Minnesota on Tuesday. Birch has played sparingly as the backup to Biyombo so far, but with Marreese Speights sidelined again, Birch could be in for another good night off the bench.

My pick: Biyombo(C), Theis(F), Birch(UTIL);

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