FanDuel EPL DFS: Fixtures, Flyers and Fades – Jan 20 2018
By David Gate
Welcome to the FantasyCPR Fanduel EPL DFS column. We’ve got all the fixtures, flyers & fades you need to cash on this Premier League slate.
We have another seven game slate on Premier League DFS to dissect. Last week was great for this column on FanDuel EPL. ‘Fixture’ picks Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen and Abdoulaye Doucouré did the business and built a solid core. The top pick was Wilfred Ndidi who had 29 FanDuel points without a goal or assist and had criminal low ownership. My tip for West Brom headed goals against Brighton as a ‘Flyer’ really paid off as they scored two!
However it was the ‘Fade’ picks that really helped readers. I picked the Chelsea/Leicester game as one to avoid. Morata, Hazard, Vardy and Mahrez all underperformed. My only regret was not being on Kasper Schmeichel. The Leicester goalie put up a huge 35+ FanDuel points and was a staple of every lineup at the top of the GPPs.
This week we have seven games in the reverse fixtures from Boxing Day less than four weeks ago. This is the closest that teams will play each other twice all season. That means we can trust the results and performances a little more than usual.
I break down this column into three categories: Fixtures are those you need to build your lineups around. Flyers are the gambles and the punts; cheaper or lesser known players in great positions for a break out game. Fades are those you need to avoid; I think who you choose to fade in soccer DFS is more important than in any other DFS sport.
I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups changes and team sheet surprises from 9:00am ET. Last week you would have missed out on my Twitter picks of Arnautovic and Bartley who led my lines to cashing.
FanDuel EPL: Fixtures
Marko Arnautovic (10000) is the hottest player in the Premier League. He has six goals and three assists in his last seven games. That can’t continue forever but I am not picking Bournemouth as the team to stop it. Especially when he bagged two goals against them a month ago. His price has jumped this week by $2k which takes a little off his value. But in some ways I *like* that his price has gone up – might scare a few punters away and makes him impossible to include in a Man City stack with Aguero.
Speaking of Sergio Aguero (12000) he is part of a Man City side that will be desperate to win after their first loss of the season against Liverpool last week. Back at home they should beat Newcastle easily and this game as the shortest odds for being over 2.5 goals. I love Raheem Sterling (10000) to bounce back from last week’s dud. All of Man City should be on your radar fro this one.
Arsenal are in a good spot at home to Crystal Palace who will give up possession to the Gunners. I love the Arsenal midfield trio of Mesut Ozil (10000), Granit Xhaka (8500) & Aaron Ramsey (8500). Ramsey should return from injury. Despite a good matchup I can’t get excited about Alexandre Lacazette (10500) at his price. Only use in an Arsenal stack and not as one of play.
FanDuel EPL: Flyers
The West Ham v Bournemouth game is my favorite to target this week for value. When the two sides met a month ago they played out a 3-3 draw. Since then every Bournemouth game has had at least three in goals and West Ham have scored 7 in the next 3 EPL games.
My favorite pick is Callum Wilson (8000) is the best player on the Bournemouth side and an underrated EPL forward. He is also on a hot streak scoring in three of the last four games including against the Hammers.
Jordan Ibe (6500) is in the best run of his Cherries career so far. He has broken 26+ FanDuel points three times in recent weeks and his price has not yet jumped to reflect that. High upside play for Saturday.
There are so many defenders I like at $5k or under this week that I will not be paying up for the position. Bruno Martins Indi (4500) was back in the side after Mark Hughes sacking last week and is in a good spot to make value against Huddersfield.
Arthur Masuaku (5000) is in the West Ham/Bournemouth game I am targeting. He is still listed as a defender despite playing as midfielder for the last month (thank you FanDuel for not paying attention!). He has a great shot at a goal or assist this week which is fantastic upside in GPP for a defender.
Lastly I really like Chris Smalling (5000) going up against Burnley. He has been injured so his price is a little lower than it should be. I will like this pick even more if Sam Vokes starts up front for the Clarets as that will mean they’ll be lots of long balls for Smalling to clear and intercept.
FanDuel EPL: Fades
The Burnley v Man Utd game is one of the predicted lowest scoring games of the weekend – only Everton v West Brom is lower. And barely. I agree with the bookmakers on this one and will be fading both attacks and midfield in cash and GPP.
Romelu Lukaku (11500) and Paul Pogba (10500) are priced at a premium yet only put up 4.5 and 17.5 FanDuel points respectively the last time the teams met. There is very little upside at this price. Name recognition and Burnley’s poor form should attract a fair few punters too making it not worth it even as a contrarian play.
While I am not going to advocate a fade of the Leicester v Watford game I will advise some caution. This match could easily be a crazy goal fest but I think there is also a fair chance it fizzles out. That means I am avoiding it in cash games. If you are using it in GPP I recommend going ‘all-in’. Stacking Jamie Vardy (9000), Riyad Mahrez (10000) and Marc Abrighton (6500) is a good start.
If you are even thinking about using Everton, West Brom, Stoke or Huddersfield attackers this week then I’m sorry I just can’t help you. It’s chronic for you.
FanDuel EPL DFS: Lineups
Note: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
Lineup 1:
FWD: Arnautovic – West Ham
FWD: Wilson – Bournemouth
MID: Ozil – Arsenal
MlD: Sterling – Man City
MID: Ibe – Bournemouth
DEF: Smalling – Man Utd
DEF: Masuaku – West Ham
GK: Pope – Burnley
Lineup 2:
FWD: Arnautovic – West Ham
FWD: Aguero – Man City
MID: Gundogan – Man City
MlD: Xhaka – Arsenal
MID: Ibe – Bournemouth
DEF: Smalling – Man Utd
DEF: Masuaku – West Ham
GK: Butland – Stoke