NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday January 19
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Thursday Night’s NBA DFS slate was dominated by two big men as Karl-Anthony Towns (62) and Joel Embiid (60) were the top scorers on the slate and the only two players to top 50 fantasy points on the night. The biggest surprise to me was that the LeBron James fade was actually the best non-play as the “premier play” on the slate only managed 30 fantasy points in what ended up being a closely contested game against the Magic!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots as we break down an interesting seven game slate that on the surface has some clear spots to attack, a bunch of underwhelming game environment and a whole lot of injury news to sort through!
The one game with the most amount of news also happens to have the fastest projected pace as the Pacers and Lakers square off and frankly this needs to be a wait and see spot because the sheer amount of news we are waiting on could alter how we approach this slate. What we do know already is that Myles Turner will continue to be out for the Pacers while Lonzo Balland Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have already been ruled out for the Lakers. What we are waiting on however is the status of both Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma who are questionable to play in this game!
So how do we attack this? Victor Oladipo ($17.4K, 9.3k) is the second highest priced player on FantasyDraft and the highest priced shooting guard at a LOADED SG position on FanDuel and although the spot would appear to be elite against a Lakers team ranked 26th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff, I am finding myself going other ways in my roster build because of the pivot options available.
If you are not playing the Pacers star then the secondary pieces like Damontas Sabonis ($6K) and Darren Collison ($5.3K) feel like solid value plays especially on FanDuel but as a whole this feels like a spot where I view the Pacers as a secondary option even thought they have the largest projected pace increase on the slate. There is blowout risk in this spot and I struggle to make guys like Sabonis or Collison “core plays” because of the lack of upside as over the last three games these are guys who are not even cracking 30 fantasy points. I could see th Pacers becoming trendy today but outside of a game stack or “fill in plays” on FanDuel, I struggle to see them as guys I am starting my roster with.
The Lakers side is interesting but I can already see Josh Hart ($9K, $4.5K) chalk night unfolding and I am ready to play the fade right off the bat. The price point is intriguing and the starting line-up is all but assured with Lonzo and KCP out but in 8 previous starts this season, Hart is averaging only 25 fantasy points per game which leaves him WAY overpriced on FantasyDraft and only a 5-5.5x value on FanDuel. The issue for me is upside – the only two games where Hart went for over 30 fantasy points was against the Rockets (massive pace up spot) and the Cavs (one of the worst defenses in the league) and tonight against a Pacers team ranked in the middle of the pack defensively that plays at a slower pace, this feels like a game environment where we see a floor game from Hart.
I talked about this the other night with Jordan Bell as the day unfolded and people were wondering if you should fade him because of the ownership – in that case I was willing to eat the chalk because of the upside. Here tonight with Hart if/when he becomes the chalk value play you have to ask yourself – is Josh Hart putting up a massive game that I simply have to have to be above the cash line? If we assume all four Lakers are out and run the numbers, Hart is sitting with a 20% usage rate as a .69 FP/M player – hardly a must have and an interesting GPP fade if he becomes the chalk I expect early on.
On the surface the Lakers SHOULD be a team we have interest in and if all four guys sit I could talk myself into Julius Randle ($12.1K) on FantasyDraft but not on FanDuel where he is Center eligible and will not make the cut for me at that position. With all four guys off the court (if indeed they all do miss), Randle has a 36% usage rate and 1.2 FP/M in a small sample size (30 minutes). The issue for me with the Lakers right now is that even when they are short-handed as they were against the Grizzlies when Lonzo and Ingram sat out, only two players saw 30+ minutes of court time.
For a game with so many injuries and the fastest projected pace game I was expecting to find this a core spot tp build around but the more I peel away at it, the less interested I become and the more this seems like an interesting fade spot in GPP’s if it indeed does become popular!
NBA DFS – Core Build
When I opened up this slate initially the Nuggets and Suns game stood out to me as THE spot I wanted to build around and when the Vegas data was released it confirmed what I expected as it has by far the highest total available at 218 which is 10 points higher than the next closest game, and has the second fastest projected pace. This is where my roster builds start today and whether you choose to pick 2-3 core pieces or full on game stack, I think this is where you plant your flag as the core of your line-ups across all formats and platforms today.
The Nuggets have the highest implied team total (113), which is over 7 points higher than their season average and will take on a Phoenix team ranked 30th in DvP and 29th in Def-Eff this season while ranking either 29th or 30th in DvP against three of the five starting positions on the floor!
Nikola Jokic ($17.6K, $10K) is priced up but without any other studs to pay up for tonight (we have no Giannis, Boogie, Brow, LeBron etc), he is the guy I am most willing to spend up on tonight. Jokic has the pure upside to be the night’s top raw points performer in this spot as he has topped 60 fantasy points in two of his last six games and I see no reason to think in a massive pace up spot he cannot approach that kind of upside tonight.
Jokic has put up over 40 shot attempts in his last two games and with Jamal Murray doubtful, Jokic will see an additional usage bump (2% over the last month) which further adds to his upside. In the last game with Murray out, Jokic put up 8 three-point attempts and when combined with his rebounding/block upside he makes for a high ceiling DFS target!
If you look at the last game the Nuggets played without Murray on the court, we saw Mike Malone run an incredibly tight rotation as the starting five all played 31 or more minutes and the only bench player to play over 20 minutes was Trey Lyles. Will Barton ($12.2K, $7.7K) will run point with Murray out and his multi-category upside is really intriguing in this spot against a Suns team ranked 29th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff against the PG position. Last game out against the Clippers, Barton put up 40 fantasy points on the back of 17 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 blocks/steals.
Mason Plumlee ($8.9K) becomes a great play on FantasyDraft where we can roster multiple centers as he is coming off a 30 minute, 16 point, 14 rebound, 42 fantasy point outing against the Clippers. In the earlier season match-up (January 3rd) against this Phoenix team, Plumlee put up 7 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 blocked shots in only 23 minutes for 35 fantasy points. The price point on FantasyDraft is simply way too cheap for any player who is going to play 30+ minutes against the Suns!
Wilson Chandler ($8.5K, $5K) is another player who seems locked into 30 minutes in this spot and I expect him to be a popular play, especially on FanDuel where we need to roster two SF’s! Chandler is an incredibly low usage player, putting up only a 14% usage rate over the last two weeks with Murray off the court but Chandler much like Plumlee, the sheer number of minutes makes him a great value play against the worst defense on the slate. The last time these teams faced off, Chandler played 34 minutes and racked up 36 fantasy points so the upside to crush at this price point is very real!
With basically all the Nuggets starters in play tonight (Gary Harris is fine for cash games but not a GPP target IMO) we will want to run it back with the Suns and frankly that is an easy spot to identify. Devin Booker ($15.5K, $8.5K) is sporting a near 40% usage rate over the last month while putting up 1.23 FP/M and will likely be a popular play after his monster 67 fantasy point outing last time out. T.J. Warren ($13.2K, $6.7K) is expected back tonight for the Suns and excelled in this match-up versus Denver a few weeks back when he put up 40 fantasy points on the back of 13 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 blocks/steals.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
Keep an eye on the status of Marc Gasol who is questionable for tonight’s game against the Kings due to an injury which would catapult Tyreke Evans ($16.9K) into must play status for me. Tonight looks like a great night to load up on FantasyDraft as we have four top end SG’s – Evans, Oladipo, Barton, Booker – which will make the decision on FanDuel a very difficult one.
With Gasol off the court this season, Evans sees a 4% usage increase and leads the team with a 34% usage read while putting up 1.3 FP/M. It may seem obvious on this slate to target the Suns defense but the reality is, the Kings defense is the second worst on this slate in terms of Def-Eff ranking 24th as a team so I have no issue prioritizing the Grizzlies. Evans put up 43 fantasy points in only 25 minutes of court time against this same Kings team on New Years Eve and makes for an elite play regardless of Gasol’s status but becomes perhaps my favorite play behind Jokic tonight if Gasol is ultimately ruled out.
If Gasol is ruled out – the secondary pieces on the Grizzlies become interesting, especially guys like Deyonta Davis ($7.4K) who would likely draw the start at Center while Jarrell Martin ($8.3K) who put up 30 fantasy points last game and Dillon Brooks ($3.9K) who put up 27 against the Knicks make for interesting salary saving pivots.
The Miami Heat see the third largest pace boost on the slate as they take on the Brooklyn Nets and with injuries to Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters, we should get some interesting value plays from the Heat side of the ball. Goran Dragic ($7.5K) seems very fairly priced on FanDuel considering the match-up against a Nets team ranked 27th in DvP and Def-Eff versus the PG position but paying up for any member of the Heat tonight gives me pause as there are better spots to allocate the salary and it is interesting to note that not a single hear player has topped 40 fantasy in either of the first two meetings with the Nets.
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-up:
PG: Goran Dragic ($7,500)
PG: Darren Collison ($5,300)
SG: Devin Booker ($8,500)
SG: Will Barton ($7,700)
SF: T.J. Warren ($6,700)
SF: Dillon Brooks ($3,900)
PF: Damontas Sabonis ($6,000)
PF: Jarrell Martin ($4,300)
C: Nikola Jokic ($10,000)
Slate Overview: Looking at this slate I love the stack that Denver/Phoenix provide and regardless of which platform you play on, the pricing is reasonable enough to fit the top plays easily as we do not have “other stars” we need to worry about paying up for. The Marc Gasol injury news will be key to watch as it could boost Tyreke Evans into must play territory and open up some interesting front court value against a bad Kings defense. Tonight looks like a night honestly I will play most on FantasyDraft as we have so many SG’s I want to roster and I can also utilize a Jokic/Plumlee stack in that format.
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings!