Main DraftKings NBA picks January 20: Which big man do you want?

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 2: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns carries the ball against the Boston Celtics during the second half at TD Garden on December 2, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Celtics defeat the Suns 116-111. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Main DraftKings NBA picks January 20: Which big man do you want?

There are seven games in the main Saturday slate. We have a lot of stars on display tonight, but Giannis is already ruled out. We still have five others above $10k, and all of them have good matchups. Which is the best way to go?

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($10,300): Curry has been a little under value against the Rockets this year, but the potential is there for him since this is going to be a very fast paced game. Curry’s low mark in his last 12 games is 43.5 DraftKings points, and he put up 50.25 DraftKings points on Houston in that span. Don’t worry too much about this one. You are going to get 5x value if you are willing to pay up.

Chris Paul ($9,400): Paul’s production was identical to Curry’s in the meeting on January 4^th. However, the Beard was sidelined for that game. Paul’s production could take a bit of a hit with Harden back, but the Rockets are still holding Harden on a 30 minute limit. What that essentially does is makes it impossible for Harden to hit value at his price, and makes it unlikely that Paul will with Harden on the court with him more.

Honorable Mention:

Tyreke Evans ($8,700): Evans put up 42.5 DraftKings points on the Pelicans last Wednesday, so there is little reason to believe that he wont be around 5x value in this one. The return of Gasol has hurt his value a little, but not enough to move me off. The guard situation in New Orleans is in flux, so Evans remains a strong option here.

Damian Lillard ($8,500): Lillard has five straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points since his return after missing two games. Dallas is middle of the road against point guards. With the way that Lillard is playing right now, there is quite a bit of potential here. He isn’t going to outscore Curry, but he could outdo Paul and/or Evans for a lower price.

Kyle Lowry ($7,500): Lowry’s price is staying down at the level that it was at when he got hurt. Mostly because he has done nothing in his two games back to cause it to rise. That will likely change tonight against Minnesota. They are still one of the worst teams in the league defending the point. Lowry should be back up to his full minutes load tonight. That puts him in a nice spot to go well over 5x value.

Dark Horses:

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,500): Lillard is a solid defender, so I am a little nervous about this one. However, Smith has topped 30 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. He is back to the level that he was at before missing a month. The price reflects that now, but Smith has a solid floor and decent enough upside. Some with shy away because of the tougher matchup, but I still think you’ll see somewhere in the 30’s with the possibility of low ownership.

Milos Teodosic ($5,500): Teodosic has back to back 30+ DraftKings points games for the first time this season. He is growing more accustomed to the NBA, and could be a good value pick at this price. Teodosic is never going to light up a scoreboard or stuff a stat sheet, but he is a solid contributor across the board. That gives him solid value with a high floor.

T.J. McConnell ($4,800): McConnell has been very good with Redick out even though Bayless is cutting into his minutes. McConnell has 100.5 DraftKings points over the last three games. That puts him firmly at 6.5x value for that span. As long as Redick is out, McConnell is a great value play.

My pick: McConnell(PG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 6: Eric Bledsoe #6 of the Milwaukee Bucks dribbles the ball against John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on January 6, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($9,200): Butler is capable of putting up numbers as big as the high priced guys, but he is not nearly as consistent. Some of that has to do with all of the talent on this team. The rest of it is just due to relying mostly on scoring to get points. This is a solid matchup against Toronto, but with so many other places to pay up, I don’t expect ownership to be very high on Jimmy tonight.

Eric Bledsoe ($7,600): I am guessing that Bledsoe will operate mostly with the ball since Brogdon is out. That also could result in Bledsoe getting more run than usual. However, Milwaukee is still pretty loaded at guard. The really tempting thing about Bledsoe is that with Giannis and Brogdon both out, someone has to pick up the scoring. Bledsoe is a prime candidate.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,500): Mitchell continues to put up big numbers for Utah. Mitchell has a little more upside than most shooting guards since he contributes across the board in most games. This is a decent matchup against the Clippers, but I don’t think that Mitchell has quite the upside that Bledsoe does.

Klay Thompson ($6,800): Thompson put up 77.75 DraftKings points in the first two games against Houston. Thompson doesn’t have huge upside, but he is a strong bet to hit value tonight. I like Thompson more in cash games based on this, but he is still a threat for 6x value for GPP usage as well.

Josh Richardson ($6,000): Richardson continues to put up strong numbers across the board with Waiters and Tyler Johnson out. Richardson racked up 66 DraftKings points in two games against Charlotte so far. I don’t think that Richardson has a ton of upside, but he will easily hit 5x value against Charlotte.

Dark Horses:

Rodney Hood ($5,300): Hood is about as inconsistent as they come, but his upside is enormous. Just look at what he did to the Kings, a team that was in the top ten against shooting guards, on Wednesday. Hood was 9-16 from the floor with 44 DraftKings points. Hood doesn’t do much other than score, so he is a risk, but how many guys can hit 8x value from this price?

Yogi Ferrell ($5,100): Ferrell has been a great value play with J.J.Barea out. Barea was upgraded to questionable yesterday, so keep an eye on this one. Hopefully we get news before the full lineup locks. If Barea is out again, Ferrell is a great bargain play once again. He has at least 5x value in every game with Barea out.

Dillon Brooks ($4,100): Brooks has at least 7x value in each of the last three games. Find someone to top that! Brooks remains a superb value play. He may be chalk tonight, but his upside is so high that I don’t think it’s a good idea to fade him.

My pick: Brooks(SG), Ferrell(G), Richardson(UTIL)

OAKLAND, CA – DECEMBER 25: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors looks on while there’s a break in the action against the Cleveland Cavaliers late in the fouth quarter of an NBA basketball game at ORACLE Arena on December 25, 2017 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($10,300): Durant missed the tilt with Houston a couple of games ago. On paper, this is a great matchup for Durant. Especially since Ariza and Gerald Green are still out. The Warriors have so many weapons that no one is guaranteed to come through. However, with the Warriors at full strength, Durant is usually the one that hits 50 if anyone does.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($7,900): The last time Giannis was out, Middleton had a somewhat disappointing game. That said, he was still over 5x value. Middleton is higher priced now than he was then. There is definitely potential with Middleton here, but there is also the possibility of another disappointment here.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,600): Aminu has a pretty strong matchup against Dallas here. His rebounding prowess keeps Aminu with a solid floor, and his larger role in the offense gives him ample upside to use in GPP formats. This is a game where Portland could decide to go small again. If they do, the upside is considerable.

Dark Horses:

Todd Wallace ($4,500): Wallace continues to be a solid source of value for the Clippers lately. The Clippers are starting to get healthy, which will likely lead to a diminished role for Wallace. However, there is no shame to riding the hot hand.

Luc Mbah a Moute ($4,200): Mbah a Moute put up 27.25 DraftKings points against the Timberwolveswith Ariza and Green out. Both of them are serving their second game of their two games suspensions. That makes Mbah a Moute one of the best value plays around. For one more night, anyway.

My pick: Mbah a Moute(SF)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dribbles the ball against the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on December 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,600): Davis put up 57 DraftKings points on Memphis in the first meeting. Ownership may be a little bit down after the egg Brow laid against Atlanta. That was on the heels of back to back 75+ DraftKings point outings. I would go with Davis over Boogie tonight, but playing them both isn’t a terrible decision. There is plenty of value around to make it happen.

Blake Griffin ($8,600): Griffin is back to doing what he does. Putting up 40-something DraftKings points per night. This is a somewhat difficult matchup for Griffin with Utah on the docket. If you can’t afford Davis, Griffin is a solid option.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($8,200): Green has destroyed Houston for 101.25 DraftKings points in two games. That would put him well above value. However, Green is carrying a questionable tag on his bum shoulder for this one. Keep an eye on updates throughout the day on Green’s status. If he is playing, I think he is a better option than Griffin.

James Johnson ($5,200): Johnson was a bust last night. Again. He has not been the same since his return. This is a huge risk here. Charlotte is the worst team in the league defending either forward position. Johnson does have 57.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Hornets this year. But oh man, it’s difficult to play Johnson right now. There is upside, but the risk……wow.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($4,800): The absence of DeAndre Jordan showed the Clippers what they have in Harrell. He has been superb with Jordan out. If Jordan is out again, I’m all over Harrell here. If Jordan returns, there is some risk involved. I still think that the Clippers like what they have in Harrell and will give him solid run, but his days of putting up 30’s in DraftKings points end when Jordan returns.

David West ($3,800): Jordan Bell is going to be out for a while, and there is a chance that this job doesn’t automatically fall back to Zaza Pachulia. Not that Pachulia did a lot with the job to begin with. At any rate, West has been a really good value play, but the upside is capped on this talented team. There is a chance that West gets a lot more run. If that happens, there is finally some upside here.

My pick: Davis(PF), Harrell(F)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 19: DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the New Orleans Pelicans looks on against the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on December 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700): Cousins has 106 DraftKings points in two games against Memphis. That would actually put him under value for this price tag. Cousins has proven that he can hold his own against the Memphis front, but we want more than just holding his own. We want to see domination if we are paying this price. Davis has a better chance of doing that than Cousins tonight.

Joel Embiid ($10,400): Embiid dominated Boston, a really good defensive team, on Thursday. That is two huge games now for Embiid, and now he gets a Milwaukee team that has been crushed by opposing centers. The upside on Embiid is enormous tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300): Towns has a tasty matchup with an undersized Toronto team. Center is loaded with good matchups tonight, but Towns is more hit and miss with Jimmy Butler blowing up other teams. If you can’t afford Embiid, Towns is a solid play.

Rudy Gobert ($6,500): Gobert put up a double double in his return to the court last night. Tonight he gets a Clippers team that may be without DeAndre Jordan again. If Jordan is out, Gobert becomes a really nice option in this price range.

Dark Horses:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,400): Valanciunas has some upside here because he is going against Towns. He is still one of the more inconsistent commodities out there, but Valanciunas has cracked the 40 threshold twice in the last five games. That’s the kind of potential he has again here.

John Henson ($4,600): Henson is never going to put up big numbers. Teams have been taking it towards Embiid lately with solid results. The loss of Giannis could open up some more scoring opportunities for others such as Henson. Don’t expect a huge night, but he could approach 6x value or better.

My pick: Embiid(C)

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