Welcome back to FanDuel NFL Lineups. This is our 2018 Conference Championships edition, likely the last of the 2017-2018 season. We’re a Daily Fantasy Football column focused on top picks and best value for your weekly FanDuel NFL lineups. We arm you with information for a big FanDuel NFL payday each week.
Some of the best offensive points for FanDuel NFL last week came from the Steelers. Unfortunately, they didn’t survive another Jaguars visit to Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger had five passing touchdowns, 469 passing yards, and a total of 37.36 FanDuel NFL points. If you stacked Big Ben with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, you likely not only had a winning cash lineup, but were in competition for GPP wins.
Brown racked up 132 receiving yards from the nearly 500 passing yards fro Roethlisberger. While Lev Bell only ran for 67 yards, he had two touchdowns and added another 88 yards receiving from Big Ben. In total the three had over 97 FanDuel NHL points. In a week where under 200 points wins you a GPP, you’re immediately set up well with that stack.
Oddly, our big play at defense was the Jacksonville Jaguars. Considering the Steelers offense we just discussed, you’d imagine the Jags defense had a terrible day for FanDuel NFL, but they didn’t. Even though they received -4 FanDuel NFL points for points scored by the Steelers offense, they had two sacks, one interception, one fumble recover, and the big defensive touchdown. So even if you stacked the Steelers offense, but somehow also plugged in the Jags defense, you were immediately in a cash-game winning position.
Our lineup suggestions did OK, but not ideal. We wish we would’ve pushed the Steelers offense more, and focused on stacking the Jags/Steelers game. Even with hindsight, that would be hard conclusion to obtain, as the Jags have one of the best defenses in the NFL, as do the Steelers. So we weren’t expecting a 45-42 type of outcome.
With those look-back points in mind, here’s a look at whose on the 2018 Conference Championship schedule:
Jaguars at Patriots (3:05pm ET CBS)
Vikings at Eagles (6:40pm FOX)
With just two games, and four teams, on the slate this weekend, likely the last for FanDuel NFL of this season, we have a brief list of suggestions. It’s hard to come up with many options with only four NFL teams, and unfortunately three of these four teams have top-five defenses. So finding the best offense is going to be challenging, and there’s a high likelihood the GPP winners this weekend will be with random, or surprise, picks.
Looking back to last week, we know Stefon Diggs had a solid game, winning the day for Minnesota with the game winning touchdown, but also six receptions and 137 yards for a total of 22.7 FanDuel NFL points. Can that carry over to Philadelphia? And while the Jags passing defense has been outstanding this season, they could have holes for Dion Lewis to fill with the run game, and the passing game, after his 18.6 FanDuel NFL performance last week.
So with last week in mind, and the slim slate looking forward, we march toward our top options, and fades, of this 2018 Conference Championship weekend. We’ll start your NFL DFS optimal lineup with the Quarterbacks…
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Conference Championships 2018 – Quarterbacks
Top Pick
Since December 11th, Tom Brady ($9,000) has only seen two top-ten ranked defenses, the Steelers and Dolphins. During those games, both road games, Brady threw for under 300 yards each game and a total of two touchdowns and three interceptions. Still, Tom had over 16 FanDuel NFL points per game.
We know Brady’s story by now. He’s a future Hall of Famer still on the field. But, while the Jags struggle with the run defense, they’ve been consistently great against the pass all season, including a dominating performance from the Steelers last week. And while everyone’s worried about Brady’s hand over the last week, I’m worried about more.
Tom is a 40-year-old man who appeared hobbled at times over the last four weeks of the season. With two weeks rest, Brady looked outstanding against the Titans mediocre pass attack. Then Rex Burkhead supposedly rammed into his hand during practice this week.
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The Pats haven’t made any move at quarterback in the case of an emergency, so they don’t seem too worried and it’s likely Brady plays. But if this injury report is true, Brian Hoyer would be quarterbacking the Pats quickly, and you’re down to less than ten points for a $9K salary pick in your lineup.
There are too many warning signs with the Brady pick for FanDuel NFL. Instead, deep breath…a gulp…OK, let’s do this, pick Blake Bortles ($7,600). You may need to take a few shots before, and after, you take him, but Bortles is oddly a smart pick this week.
We’ve heard the joking, and complaining, and taunting about Bortles inconsistent play every season. For the most part we agree with it. However, over his last eight starts, Blake has 16+ FanDuel NFL points in seven games. That’s more than any other starting quarterback this week.
Bortles struggled against the Titans on December 31st, throwing for only 158 yards and two interceptions. But outside of that game, Blake has found ways to advance the football and score touchdowns for the Jags. Again the Bills, the common joke was that he rushed for more yards than passing. Well, he did, but what everyone overlooked was that he had over 170 yards and a touchdown, now interceptions, and 16.28 FanDuel NFL points that week. Oh, and he won the game.
The Patriots defense has been stingy with points this season, especially in the red zone. But they’ve consistently given up enormous yardage gains to offenses all season. They’re demonstrating the bend-not-break method, but bending a little too often. For a Bortles, and Jags, offense who finds ways to score with yards, that’s dangerous for the Pats this weekend. We know it sounds crazy, but we’re rolling with Bortles over Brady this weekend.
Other Top Option
Sorry, but here comes another crazy pick at quarterback. We were big on Nick Foles ($7,100) as a sleeper pick at quarterback last week, and it didn’t quite pan out. Foles never completed a pass for a touchdown. Nick also had some dangerous plays throughout the game that just happened to work out for the Eagles.
However, I was at the game. And everyone in Lincoln Financial Field noticed a turn in Foles passing ability mid-way into the third quarter. After throwing errant balls often in the first half, Nick began to hit his targets quickly and often, right on the money. In fact, after having several in-completions throughout the game, Foles ended the game with 23 completions in 30 attempts, better than Matt Ryan. Still, he only had 9.64 FanDuel NFL points.
But with one or two touchdown passes last week, that total would’ve been significantly better. So now you’re likely thinking, yes but the Vikings passing defense is incredible. They are. And Nick Foles is no Drew Brees, but the Saints found passing lanes in the second half last week, with ease. Also, while the Vikings passing defense has been incredible in Minnesota this year, they’ve performed worse on the road.
Fade
Case Keenum ($8,000) – First, a warning. This fade call could be suicide for your FanDuel NFL lineups this week. But we aren’t confident with Keenum’s fantasy value against an Eagles defense in Philly on Sunday. There are reasons.
Since December 10th, the Eagles have giving up more than 210 passing yards and more than two passing touchdowns only once, to Eli Manning. In that time, Matt Ryan threw for 210 yards last week, Dak Prescott compiled 179 yards, Derek Carr a miserable 140 yards, and Jared Goff 199 yards. Somehow, a reeling Giants team found a way to get Eli over 400 yards against the Eagles defense. That’s an anomaly.
While everyone is talking about the Eagles secondary this week, two things seem to be consistently overlooked. The Eagles have one of the best defensive lineman, and pass rush, in the NFL, and the Vikings have a mediocre pass blocking group. That doesn’t bode well for Keenum’s pocket timing.
Second, while the Eagles secondary has struggled this season, they have been more aggressive since the emergence of the dominating Philly run defense. Case could still hit Diggs once, or twice, for a long touchdown, but don’t expect Keenum to be sitting pretty in the pocket making easy passes all game.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Conference Championships 2018 – Running Backs
Top Picks
The Steelers defense was good against the pass and rush this season. And they were better in Heinz Field than on the road. But Leonard Fournette ($8,500) didn’t get the memo. With a monstrous 24 carries, Fournette barreled his way to 109 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns in Heinz Field. Leonard also had four targets for two receptions and ten receiving yards. In total, Fournette had 30.9 FanDuel NFL points.
This week, as we mentioned earlier, the Jags are facing a very good bend-don’t-break type of defense in the NFL. The Pats are giving up enormous amounts of yards each game, but less so touchdowns. But even if Fournette sees the end zone less, he’s likely to rack up enormous yardage against a team ranked 31st in the pass and 21st in the run game.
The Jaguars passing defense and uncertainty around the Patriots passing offense could put Dion Lewis ($7,700) at risk, but it’s unlikely. The Jags run defense has been near the bottom all season, while improving in the last two months of the season. With injuries plaguing the Pats backfield, Lewis likely continues to see 15 to 25 carries this weekend, and will get five to ten passing targets. So Dion is a solid double-digit FanDuel NFL play at running back, with 20 to 30 point potential.
Other Top Options
At first glance, Jay Ajayi ($7,200) seems like a terrible pick. The Jay-Train had only 54 rushing yards on 15 carries last week, and a fumble. But Jay also saw five targets for three receptions and 44 receiving yards. Ajayi ended the game with only 9.3 FanDuel NFL points, but he was very close to having significantly more points, including Blount robbing a touchdown.
This week, the Eagles running game faces a very good Viking run defense. But the Vikings run defense hasn’t been as great as their pass defense on the road. In fact, they’re often vulnerable in this situation. Meanwhile, we know the Eagles will have Ajayi taking the majority of the snaps, and see the ball around 20 times during the game. This is a low-owned top pick.
If you watched Tevin Coleman against the Eagles last week, you love the FanDuel NFL potential from Jerick McKinnon ($6,800) this week. Against the Saints, McKinnon only had eight carries, but picked up 34 yards and a rushing touchdown. Jerick also saw four targets for three receptions, but only six yards. Still, that was an 11.5 FanDuel NFL result. From what we’ve seen last week, the Eagles will mostly be focused on Murray, exposing a speedy McKinnon around the edges, in the screen game, and in the mid-range passing game. Jerick is the best value of all running backs this weekend.
Fades
Latavius Murray ($6,900) – We saw it last week. While Tevin Coleman was a threat against the Eagles defense, especially around the edges, Freeman struggled to gain yards all game, even in the passing game. Murray is a Freeman-type player who could have a rough game against the Eagles.
T.J. Yeldon ($5,200) – After getting a touchdown in a high-scoring affair in New England last weekend, many FanDuel NFL players will be tempted to grab Yeldon as a ‘value play’ this week. Don’t do it. The odds the Jags are in a shootout with the Pats are low, and T.J. won’t see many carries around the end zone.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Conference Championships 2018 – Wide Receivers
Top Picks
While we think Keenum struggles this Sunday, Adam Thielen ($7,400) and Stefon Diggs ($6,700) could still have solid games against this Eagles secondary. Case is going to complete several passes and may have a touchdown or two, and he likely hits Theilen or Diggs for most of them. Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills were tough last week, but they still allowed several down-field passing plays to the Falcons. I’m more worried about any slot platy from either of these guys, with Robinson defending so well in the slot.
We’re not going to be huge fans of Jeffery this weekend, but we do like Nelson Agholor ($6,200). If there’s a weak link in the Vikings DB corps, it’s Terence Newman. The 39-year-old former Cowboys corner has been mediocre, at best, covering the slot receivers this season, and Nelson is a dangerous one. Agholor was also an interesting part of the Eagles run game last week.
We don’t love Cooks this week, but we do love Danny Amendola ($6,400). Averaging only 7.23 FanDuel NFL points-per-game this season, Amendola has been hot since December 11th, piling up six receptions and 76 yards against a solid Dolphins pass defense. Last week, Brady threw to Danny 13 times, for eleven receptions and 112 yards. Again, if there’s a weak link in the Jags defensive back corps, it’s the slot receiver, where Amendola will spend most of his time Sunday.
Other Top Picks
If you’re over the shock of liking Bortels against the Pats this weekend, you should consider Marqise Lee ($6,100) or Dede Westbrook ($5,500) at receiver. While Keenan Cole had the best reception of the game last week, a 45 yard pass from Blak, he wasn’t the most targeted receiver. Cole only saw two targets, while Lee saw six and Westbrook saw three. Dede is the home-run threw for the Jags, while Lee is the consistent workhorse, or target machine, for the receivers.
Fades
Alshon Jeffery ($7,300) – Supposedly Jeffery has a great historical record against Xaiver Rhodes, the Vikings cornerback. That may be true, but Rhodes is have a career season. The 27-year-old Miami, Florida native will likely shadow Alshon all game, and we suspect the Eagles will minimize their targets to Jeffery this week.
Brandin Cooks ($7,000) – If there’s one receiving talent we expect the Jags passing defense to shutdown this week, it’s Cooks. The Jags will likely try to contain the receiving targets ‘within the box’, and force the Pats to avoid throwing downfield. Any time Cooks tries to break for a long stride, the Jags will be ready, and they’re one of the best in the league.
Chris Hogan ($6,100) – We realize Hogan had a touchdown last week, but since his injury issues plagued his season, Chris hasn’t been a high-numbered target for Brady. Paying $6.1K is a gamble for someone who could only see two to four targets this weekend, without a touchdown. You have better options.
FanDuel NFL Lineups: Conference Championships 2018 – Tight End / Kicker / Defense
At tight end this weekend, there are three options. Rob Gronkowski ($8,400) is the clear favorite and if you can afford him, make sure you have him in your lineup. In fact, if you can’t afford him, adjust your lineup until you can fit him in. In the NFL playoffs, Gronk is a result-setting type of pick at tight end.
Rob is consistently averaging almost 15 FanDuel NFL points-per-game, and has a touchdown in each of the last two games, including against the Titans last week. Brady looks Gronk’s way seven to 15 times per game. He’ll big a big part of their offense this weekend.
If, for some reason, you refuse to pay up for Gronkowski, Zach Ertz ($7,000), Kyle Rudolph ($6,100), or Trey Burton ($4,800) are in play. Ertz had been consistently dominate throughout the season, even with Foles taking snaps, but was quiet last week with only three receptions and 32 yards on five targets.
One of the big problems with Ertz this week, is that we think the Eagles could try to spring Burton off the line often, as a surprise against the Vikings. If that’s the case, Trey is a huge value play over Ertz, and Zach could be the waste of a pick. Finally, we don’t love Rudolph this week, but he’s been a big part of the Vikings offense this season, so we can’t ignore him. Still, while the Eagles have been historically terrible against tight ends, they reversed course this season. So Kyle is at the bottom of our top four list.
At kicker, you literally only have four options. Pick one. But we like Jake Elliott ($5,100) the most with some long-range shots, like last week, in play. Oddly, after Elliott missed his only extra point attempt, he was a huge part of the Eagles win last week. Making a 53 yarder at the end of the first half, and a 37 and 21 yard field goal in the second half, Jake provided eleven FanDuel NFL points to lineups, and handed the Eagles a win.
Finally, defense is tough this week. The Vikings, Eagles, and Jaguars defense are all top-five options. While the Patriots giving up a lot of yards, they don’t give up a lot of points and could be a sneaky play, especially if you’re fading the Jags offense. That being said, we’re favoring the potential turmoil in New England and the consistent flow of points from the Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400) defense all season.
So after reviewing all of the options, we put together our favorite lineup for the NFL Conference Championship weekend in 2018. Here’s a look:
QB Bortles (JAC $7,600)
RB Fournette (JAC $8,500)
RB McKinnon (MIN $6,800)
WR Diggs (MIN $6,700)
WR Amendola (NE $6,400)
WR Lee (JAC $6,100)
TE Gronkowski (NE $8,400)
K Elliott (PHI $5,100)
Def Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400)
This leaves us with $0 left, maximizing our picks using value in two receiver positions, defense, and kicker and loading up on some big point potential at quarterback, running back, and receiver.
Note: This is a recommended lineup after discussing our top options for the week. You should use this as a guide, and provide your own input when building FanDuel NFL lineups. We are not telling you, or selling you, to use this lineup.
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Enjoy the NFL Conference Championship weekend and good luck with your FanDuel NFL plays. Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!