DraftKings NBA picks January 21: All in on Drummond!

We only have four games on Sunday, and they start early! I am considering fading the entire slate because the late tip is seven hours after the first, and includes the lineup jostling Spurs. With no late swap, this slate is a disaster for us and a nice way for DraftKings to take our money!

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Kyrie Irving ($8,600): This is a great matchup for Irving, but there are a couple of things that could work against him. First off, Irving is coming back from a shoulder injury. Also, Irving only has 62 DraftKings points against the Magic this year. That would be awesome if it was in one game, but it’s in two. There is sizeable risk here. A risk you don’t like to take at this price. But wow, the upside is definitely here.

Honorable Mention:

Elfrid Payton ($6,600): Payton is not a very consistent play, but I’m willing to take the chance if Irving is out. With Irving in there, this is not a great play. The Celtics have handcuffed Payton in both games this year.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,800): Clarkson was a monster with Lonzo Ball out on Friday. He put up 51.75 DraftKings points on the Pacers. This is a really good matchup for Clarkson again tonight with the Knicks on the left coast. Even though Clarkson doesn’t start, he could be the highest scoring point guard of the slate.

Dark Horses:

Josh Hart ($4,900): Hart wasn’t the value play that we hoped for with both Ingram and Ball out, but he was close. Close enough that he may be enough of a value pick to take a chance on today. However, you likely wont need to go this cheap.

Jarrett Jack ($4,800): The Knicks point guard situation is still pretty defined with Jack as the starter. With Ball out, I love his chances of hitting at least 6x value against Ennis and whoever else they throw out there. There is risk involved because, you know, it’s the Knicks. However, the upside is clear.

My pick: Clarkson(PG), Jack(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,800): Oladipo is one of the higher priced plays today, but I’m not using him against the Spurs. Hardaway went off on Utah on Friday in just 27 minutes. The Knicks may be limiting Hardaway still, but he can clearly produce with as little as 25 minutes. Hardaway is a low risk option for me in a really good situation. He may even outscore Oladipo!

Jaylen Brown ($6,400): Brown has almost as many DraftKings points as Irving against Orlando at a far lower price. In fact, he has hit value in those games! Brown is a strong play here. Orlando is still one of the worst defensive teams around. There is a lot of potential for most Boston players tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Evan Fournier ($5,900): I’m not a fan of using people against Boston, but you can’t deny just how well Fournier is playing lately. Fournier has averaged 33 DraftKings points per game over the last four games. This is a tough matchup, but if you ride hot hands, here is one.

Avery Bradley ($5,500): Ish Smith is not a reliable scorer in the Detroit backcourt most nights, so Bradley has been called on to pick up the slack with Jackson out. Smith has a tough matchup, so that could spell success for Bradley. He is cheap enough to take a chance on, and should have a solid floor.

Dark Horses:

Caris LeVert ($5,100): LeVert has at least 6x value in four of the last five games, so there is value to be had here. The Pistons have struggled defensively against most other positions, so a Nets stack could work out. At most positions, anyway.

Trey Burke ($3,100): Burke seems to have taken all of the thunder from Frank Ntilikina lately. The Knicks are giving Burke plenty of run lately. If you need to really go cheap today, this is the most suitable place to do it. I don’t trust Ntilikina right now.

My pick: Hardaway(SG), Burke(UTIL)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Tobias Harris ($6,500): Harris had 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Nets. Harris’s production has leveled off lately, but the consistency has been under 5x value at this price. This is a pretty light slate, so Harris is worth a look. If you can stomach his poor shooting and struggles to hit value.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,200): Kuzma put up 33.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Knicks. That was with Nance out, but if Ingram misses this game, there is a lot of potential for both of them. We can only hope that we have some news before the first game tips.

Honorable Mention:

Michael Beasley ($5,900): Beastley has a somewhat consistent role for the Knicks now. He really only has great value if someone sits, but Beasley’s production off the bench has been solid. Solid enough that he warrants using on lighter slates, and even in some better matchups as well.

DeMarre Carroll ($5,700): Carroll has at least 6x value in four of the last five games. This is a great matchup for Carroll against the Pistons, who are one of the weakest teams against either forward position. Carroll is one of the only stress free plays of the day.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Anderson ($5,000): Anderson is clearly the guy for the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard out for the foreseeable future……again. The minutes are there for Anderson first. Everyone else could be a filler play until something better comes along, but Anderson is clearly the main beneficiary.

Larry Nance ($4,800): I really only like this play if Ingram is out again. Otherwise there isn’t enough minutes to go around for Ingram and Kuzma as well. There likely wont be any news before the early tips, so I would avoid this entirely.

My pick: Carroll(SF), Anderson(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,900): Aldridge only had 38 DraftKings points in the first matchup with the Pacers. This is a great matchup on paper for Aldridge, and he has been huge over the last three games with Leonard and Manu both out. There is some risk here with Aldridge being so expensive, but guys who can hit 50 today are few and far between.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700): Porzingis absolutely dominated the Lakers in the first meeting with 66.75 DraftKings points. I would pretty much say that Porzingis is elite today. There is no reason that you can’t afford both him and Aldridge or go for the trifecta with Drummond. There are so many ways to build this afternoon, but Porzingis should be a cornerstone.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($7,500): Horford has a really nice matchup with the Magic tonight, but he doesn’t always hit value. That has been the hitch with using Horford, or any Celtic for that matter, all season. This team is so balanced that it’s hard to rely on just one player.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,100): Go ahead and fade RHJ. He will just put up his 30 DraftKings points and be on his merry way. There is little upside here, but Hollis-Jefferson is a cash game stalwart. Against Detroit, he has decent GPP upside as well if you step out of the upper tier.

Dark Horse:

Daniel Theis ($3,800): Theis was a non-factor against the Sixers. Will that trend keep up, or will Theis continue the way he was before the Philadelphia game? Theis was outstanding over the first game before that. I still think there is value to be had here if you need it.

My pick: Porzingis(PF)

Center:

Best Bet:

Andre Drummond ($10,000): Drummond put up a 20/20 game on the Nets in the first meeting. There is a good reason to expect more of the same. The Nets are undersized, and have no one that can bang around with Drummond here. He is the top play of the day, and it’s not all that close.

Honorable Mention:

Pau Gasol ($6,700): Gasol put up 43.75 DraftKings points on the Pacers in the first meeting. The general rule is that Gasol and Aldridge don’t both have a good game on the same night. The Pacers aren’t anything special up front, so there is potential with both. I would lean more towards Gasol though, and a lot of that is based on price.

Domantas Sabonis ($6,300): Sabonis has been very solid with Myles Turner out. Sabonis is never going to be the guy that goes well over 40 on any given night. He is the guy that is going to be in the 30’s every night. That makes him a nice cash game play, and decent enough for GPP usage.

Dark Horse:

Bismack Biyombo ($6,000): Biyombo has been really good with Vucevic out, but Boston provides a whole new set of problems. This is a risky play today. I’ve been all over Biyombo with Vucevic out, but I think I’m going to pass today. Which means you should probably use him.

My pick: Drummond(C)

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