Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Saturday Night’s NBA DFS slate was incredibly top-heavy from a top performer perspective but it was not James Harden, Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant who led the way – it was Chris Paul who was the top performer on the night with 65.75 fantasy points! Lou Williams was not far behind with 65 fantasy points of his own while Khris Middleton continued to shine with Giannis off the court as he racked up 59.5 fantasy points of his own!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
While the sports world and DFS community may have its eyes on NFL Championship Sunday – and do not worry, we have you covered there as well with our top NFL DFS plays – we have a three game NBA slate with some interesting games to break down!
The three game slate kicks off at 3:30PM EST with the Knicks and Lakers and ends with the Spurs and Pacers at 7PM EST. Of all the three games on this slate, the Pacers and Spurs game is the one I have the least amount of interest in as we have a 199 game total with two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The Pacers get a brutal match-up against a Spurs team that is ranked 2nd in the NBA in team Def-Eff while the Pacers themselves have been playing at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA in recent weeks.
With Kawhi Leonard out, the case can certainly be made for LaMarcus Aldridge ($16.9K) who is averaging 48.4 fantasy points per game over his last three outings but I am finding myself looking to spend up in other places which leads me away from LMA. The Spurs and Pacers played earlier this season in a game where Kawhi was also out so we have a similar game script to look through here and in that game LMA played 36 minutes, racking up a solid 26 points, 8 rebounds and 37 fantasy points. The floor is as solid as you could possibly ask for but on a three game slate I am not seeing the raw points ceiling that makes LMA a must play for me.
The Lakers continue to be a mess injury wise and although we already know Lonzo Ball is OUT, we will have to wait on the official status of Brandon Ingram and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who although they are both listed as questionable, practiced in full on Saturday so appear to be on track to take the court against the Knicks.
The issue with the Lakers is that we have a team that is simply playing too large of a rotation to count on any singular player from a DFS perspective. Last time out, the Lakers rank a 9 man rotation where 8 of the 9 players (only Brook Lopez is excluded) played 20 or more minutes and that was without Brandon Ingram and KCP on the court. If Ingram and KCP return to the court this team just becomes untouchable in my opinion – even on a three game slate.
I am sure people will chase the Jordan Clarkson 50 burger but keep in mind the Lakers were short-handed in that game and he shot 14 for 19 (73%) in that game – you want to count on that again? This Lakers-Knicks game has the highest projected pace on the slate and we only have 6 teams to choose from so it feels odd to cross off a team in this kind of game environment entirely but go ahead and look back at the Lakers-Thunder box score when they were fully healthy (without Lonzo) and tell me you want to sort through THOSE rotations. No thank you!
NBA DFS – All the Pistons?
It may seem odd that on a three game slate I am essentially crossing off three teams from my player pool but this is where we are in Picks and Pivots today. I will let others target the slowest paced game on the slate and a Lakers team that plays roughly 47 players a night and will look to narrow down my player pool significantly.
Andre Drummond ($18.1K) is the lock button play of the slate and you simply do not get cute. Drummond has put up 56+ fantasy points in four of his last five games and will take on a Brooklyn team he just dropped 22 points, 20 rebounds and 62 fantasy points against. Just lock him in here and move on with the rest of your roster – unless of course you think Tyler Zeller is stopping him from another 20/20 game then feel free to play the fade! Hassan Whiteside just showed us all how great this match-up versus Brooklyn is when he racked up 22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 blocks and 52 fantasy points against the Nets so this is an all in spot for me today!
The Pistons in general get a favorable match-up today as they see the second largest pace boost and the largest projected point boost of any team on the main slate. Looking back at the previous match-up versus the Nets may be a bit mis-leading for anyone other than Drummond as the Pistons won this game by 34 points with most of their players getting rest during the fourth quarter as AD was the only Detroit starter to log more than 30 minutes.
Brooklyn is not the defensive pushover they were made out to be in the beginning of the year but they do play at a fast pace and outside of that earlier Pistons game they rarely get blown out so this looks like a spot where the Pistons starters should get full run. Ish Smith ($12.6K) gets perhaps the best possible match-up as the Nets rank 27th in DvP and Def-Eff against opposing PG’s and has played 30+ minutes in each of his last three games. The price point on Ish ($12.6K and $6.4K on FanDuel) is high considering he has only went over 30 fantasy points one time over his last six games so this is more of a GPP play than he is a cash game option considering his recent output!
Avery Bradley ($10.8K) and Tobias Harris ($12.5K) have exceptional individual match-ups as well as the Nets rank 21st in Def-Eff against opposing SG’s and 28th versus PF’s but a stroll through their game logs will show you the same story as we outlined with Ish as they are rarely exceeding 30 fantasy points per night which makes investing in them more of a GPP strategy. Because of the price points, Tobias and Ish are GPP stack options only as they would need 37 fantasy points just to hit value at this price point – figures they have only reached three times in their last 20 games combined! Instead, I will take the salary savings and utilize Bradley in cash games in this pace up spot to get my exposure at a more reasonable price range!
On the Nets side of this game, D’Angelo Russell is back and played 14 minutes off the bench last time out versus Miami. Russell even in that short court time went back to his usual 30%+ usage rate which will only drive production away from guys like Spencer Dinwiddie as he gets more and more time on the floor. I am not sure we can use Russell yet until we see him play 25+ minutes (although on FanDuel where he is SG eligible he is REALLY tempting) but his mere presence in the rotation will limit the upside for guys like Dinwiddie in the short-term.
Where I would focus my attention instead is on the “secondary” usage guys in Brooklyn that would feed off a guy like Russell and benefit from better offensive looks and counting stats. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($11.5K) not surprisingly sees his usage rate drop with Russell back but what is more important is that his fantasy production per minute increases as he sees an uptick in steals/blocks/points. RHJ put up 33 fantasy points against this Pistons team the last time they met and he makes for an intriguing pivot off Tobias at the same price on FanDuel and a discount on FantasyDraft!
Allen Crabbe ($8.8K) on the surface should be another player who benefits from the return of Russell as he can get better spot-up three-point opportunities as defenses focus on Russell and/or Dinwiddie driving to the lane. Crabbe is a volatile scoring option but he was one of the lone bright spots against the Pistons the last time out when he racked up 34 fantasy points and at this price point a similar game would crush GPP value!
DeMarre Carroll ($10.5K) is much the same player as RHJ and Crabbe in that I believe Russell being on the court will allow them to operate more freely as they see less defensive attention. If you put Russell on the court with Carroll, Crabbe and RHJ – you see Carroll gets an uptick in 3PM, steals and points – solidifying the point that they may actually benefit from his return when it comes to DFS! DC has been a beast in recent games putting up 36-42 fantasy points in three of his last four outings!
NBA DFS – All the THJ!
For those of you who read Picks and Pivots each day and/or follow me on Twitter – you know I play DFS because I love it – it is that simple – I love the research, the analytics and the strategy behind it but most of all DFS is an escape from the everyday craziness of our lives and allows us to throw a few bucks down in the hope we can outsmart the field with our amazing picks! Friday night was one of the more fun DFS nights I have had this season as two of my favorite players – Jamal Murray and Tim Hardaway Jr. went off and if you guys read me with any regularity you know I write them up probably more than any two players (usually to my demise).
I am sure Tim Hardaway Jr. ($12.7K) will be massively popular today after putting up 43 fantasy points last time out and now notching over 40 fantasy points in two of his last three games. The Knicks get by far the largest pace boost of any team on the slate versus the Lakers and you think I am not going to obnoxiously sell you on him today? I am all in – you should be all in too – in fact – dump your entire bankroll on him, mass enter the Monster – send ChipotleAddict and PapaGates some $10k H2H’s and watch him win you all the money. Just don’t @ me when he rests or shoots 2 for 15 and ruins your day!
My insane love for THJ aside, Kristaps Porzingis ($16.5K) is in a fantastic spot tonight against a Lakers team he destroyed for 67 fantasy points his last time out on the back of 37 points, 11 rebounds and 5 blocked shots! KP seems rejuvenated lately with Hardaway back on the floor and his increase in blocked shots recently – 20 in his last 6 games – gives him massive upside on this short slate!
Remember a few games ago when Jarrett Jack ($9.5K) was chalk and killing it – with 33, 43 and 48 fantasy points in three straight games against the Bulls, Pelicans and Wolves? Well since then – JJ has gone back to being, well Jarrett Jack and has failed to top 20 fantasy points in his last three games. Outside of a 12 minute dud versus Brooklyn – the reality is the match-ups have been brutal against a slow-paced Jazz and Memphis team so do not simply game log watch here.
Over the last two weeks, starting point guards have averaged over 33 fantasy points per game against the Lakers which would put Jack right at GPP value and I would expect the game log watchers will run away leaving his ownership much lower than it should be in this elite match-up!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Ish Smith ($6,400)
PG: Jarrett Jack ($5,000)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,900)
SG: Avery Bradley ($5,400)
SF: Allen Crabbe ($4,700)
SF: DeMarre Carroll ($6,000)
PF: Kristpas Porzingis ($9,600)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,500)
C: Andre Drummond ($10,500)
Slate Overview: On this three game slate I am simply planting my flag and ignoring the slow-paced Pacers/Spurs game and the mess that is the Lakers rotation. Instead I will go all-in on the Knicks core and stack the Nets-Pistons game around the best play on the slate in Andre Drummond. Play smart today – but play – have fun with it – make all the money with THJ and thank me later. ***Please note – if THJ plays poorly – this article will auto-erase.
Next: FanDuel NFL Picks - Conference Championship Week
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!