We’re all overreacting to Trae Young
Trae Young of Oklahoma has been this year’s biggest surprise in college basketball. Relatively unheralded after playing in the shadow of Michael Porter Jr. in AAU ball, Young made a statement early on in the season, going for 43 points in a Sooners win against Oregon. He has hit the 40-point mark two more times since then, and he’s showcased a combination of scoring efficiency — 60.8 true shooting percentage on 20.6 field goal attempts per game — with a diverse playmaking profile. That’s allowed him to average an absurd 30.5 points and 9.7 assists per game.
To put that in context, only three other players have averaged 30 points per game for a full season. The highest assist total among that group? 4.9, coming from Charles Jones of Long Island University in 1996-97. Meanwhile, only 15 players have averaged nine assists per game for a season. The closest anyone on that list has come to Young’s scoring totals was Kay Felder of Oakland, who needed a notoriously wide-open spread offense to get to 24.4 points per game. No one has really even gotten close to putting up the offensive production Young has, especially not at the power conference level.
This has justifiably gotten Young into the upper echelon of 2018 NBA Draft prospects. With an offensive game that mimics the leader of the NBA’s current dynasty, Young has many scouts and fans excited about his potential as a scheme-breaking offensive player, capable of pulling up from anywhere on the floor in any situation.
That has put Young in line for the No. 1 pick conversation, especially with Porter Jr.’s injury and the skepticism surrounding Marvin Bagley. Young’s combination of efficiency and volume in both scoring and distributing is unrivaled, and it’s not like Oklahoma runs a gimmicky offense to spring him looks. They also aren’t so bereft of talent that they need Young to carry an insane usage to survive. Oklahoma began last week as the AP No. 4 team in the country. The numbers are nice, but combining that with wins is better, and Young’s been able to do that.
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This week, though, the tide turned on Young. The question with him this season has been, “What happens when Young’s shot doesn’t fall?” We found out on Tuesday and Saturday, as Young’s efficiency failed him. On Tuesday, he scored 20 points on 8-of-21 shooting, hitting just 2-of-10 threes in a loss to Kansas State. Then on Saturday, Young posted his career-high scoring mark, with a 48-point showing in an overtime loss to Oklahoma State. The problem was that it came on 39 shots — with only 6-of-19 shooting inside the arc.
This has, predictably, produced backlash. Are Young’s stats just a product of his volume? Can you just scheme for him trying to beat you by himself, banking on his efficiency dropping like he’s Russell Westbrook? What if he doesn’t defer to teammates in the NBA?
Young probably isn’t the superstar that his initial torrent of baskets may have made him out to be. While his efficiency on volume was impressive, in total he’s still under 200 3-pointers for the season, and that’s still not enough to draft a reliable shooting profile with. It was inevitable that he was going to have a few games where his outside shot failed him, and that’s happened a few times in recent weeks — 1-of-6 at home against Oklahoma State, 3-of-12 vs. West Virginia, 2-of-10 at Kansas State.
The recent shooting struggles have highlighted the problems with Young’s shooting mechanics — despite lightning quickness, Young’s low release point may become a problem at the next level, and when he’s pressured, he can push his shot forward, resulting in a long-range clank that usually hits back rim.
Young also has had difficulty with his floater in the past few games, rushing it in traffic as his touch has abandoned him. Young’s never going to be a powerful finisher, but his craft and touch around the rim has been part of why people are confident that he will be able to get there reliably in the NBA.
But lately, that floater has been a more frequent part of his shot selection, and he’s running into the same pushing motion that he gets on his outside shot, which forces the floater to also go long.
These issues that have sprouted during this up-and-down stretch have cast doubt on the seemingly limitless potential Young was establishing with his early hot stretch. He already is missing a piece of the puzzle by being undersized, which may limit his ability to become a useful finisher off the bounce at the NBA level. Steph Curry and Chris Paul are also undersized, and both have managed just fine in this regard. But at the very least, this casts some question onto whether Young can be impactful at the rim initially or if he’ll settle for his jumper too frequently, which was the case in the Oklahoma State game.
However, we can’t let what amounts to four games of inconsistent play since the West Virginia game cloud our remembrance of the earlier brilliance Young flashed. Let’s not get carried away here — those four games were sandwiched around 43 points on 15-of-27 shooting with 11 rebounds and seven assists against TCU, and for as many flaws as Young may have shown in the Oklahoma State game, 48 points is 48 points no matter how many shots it took.
Like Russell Westbrook last season in the NBA, it’s far too easy to get caught up in the numbers, both for good and bad. It’s easy to get starstruck by the point and assist totals, and when things go poorly for him, it’s easy to point to the missed field goals and turnovers as bogeymen meant to cast doubt on everything we’ve seen. Strip both away, and you get something in the middle of these two narratives — no, Young probably isn’t some can’t-miss complete offensive player, but no, he’s not a selfish shot-eater that can’t elevate his team, either.
What we do know about Young is that he matches the archetype of players who we see being successful in the NBA right now, and that’s promising. We know that he’s able to pull-up from just about anywhere with reasonable reliability, and that completely opens an offense. We also know he’s quick and shifty enough to blow past most college perimeter defenders, which separates him from similar chuckers like Jimmer Fredette.
We know his court vision is excellent, and he has real playmaking equity as a spread pick-and-roll guard.
Young seems likely to intersect four major parts of being a high-level lead guard in the NBA — pull-up shooting, handle, success around the rim and court vision. He may not have elite skill level at all of these right now, but at 19-years-old, he’s put together an impressive baseline that the stats reflect. If the shooting doesn’t translate to the same level immediately, it seems probable that he’ll be able to still find effectiveness thanks to this baseline skill set. And if it does? That covers for his deficiencies in finishing and technical passing skill, and creates that same unstoppable feedback loop that players like Curry and Kyrie Irving thrive on.
Young’s offensive skill set probably doesn’t indicate the polish that his numbers would suggest. He still has some problems to work through before he’s ready to be a star guard in the NBA, and there’s enough doubt that he may not get there thanks to his size and polish offensively. The defense question also looms large over his projection — he’s not big enough to have much reliable success at the next level, and his effort so far this year has lacked. That’s fine if he’s as good as advertised offensively, but any drop-off, and that becomes worrisome.
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But a couple of weeks shouldn’t be used to undo everything he’s done this season, either. Yeah, he might be turnover prone and he’s less of a show-stopper if the shot doesn’t fall, but that doesn’t completely kill his value as a prospect. His performances have uncovered some weaknesses, but they don’t distract from his overall resume. Young is a high-value prospect, definitely on the level of similar prospects from the last few years. He may not be the No. 1 pick, but that speaks more to the value of the other players at the top of the class. There are enough nits to pick to not have him at the top, or even top three. But don’t pick too hard, because Young’s proven to be a truly elite prospect, even if he has struggled with efficiency as of late.