NBA Trade Deadline Portfolio 2018: Elfrid Payton

Orlando Magic point guard Elfrid Payton is a contradiction in the modern NBA, or really any NBA.

Here is a guard whose most distinguishing feature is his hair, a wave cresting over his brow and billowing up and down as he pushes the pace down the floor. Yes, it does sometimes get in his eyes and maybe, just maybe, interferes with his shot.

In a league full of shooting guards, Payton is a guard who does not do much in the way of jump shooting. That is not his forte. He is a poor 3-point shooter, passing up on the shot unless wide open. Instead, Payton works in the paint, driving almost anywhere he wants and finishing strong around the basket. His 51.7 percent field goal shooting (entering games on Friday, Jan. 19) is among the league leaders for guards. All for a guy defenders typically just ignore on the perimeter

Payton has quietly put together another solid season for the Orlando Magic. He is averaging 12.9 points and 6.5 assists per game. This is roughly the kind of season he has had through his four years in his career. Payton will break players down off the dribble and probe defenses. Because he is not looking to shoot, he finds a way to warp the defense with aggressive and speedy drives. He is able to pass the ball well off these drives and score at the rim.

His field goal percentage is reminiscent of a center because entering Jan. 19’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Payton has taken 187 of his 373 field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. He is shooting 66.3 percent from the floor within five feet.

Payton has spent plenty of time flirting with triple-doubles. He has good size and good speed once he gets downhill toward the basket. Because he is a poor jump shooter, he is often looking to drive and often looking to pass off those drives. If teams collapse too much on him, he is a gifted enough passer to find the open man.

And in transition, he will make good passes and plays to set up his teammates. There seems to be so much going for him.

So why are the Orlando Magic wavering entering his restricted free agency? Why is Payton seemingly in such flux? And what is his future market value?

These are all the questions the Magic are trying to figure out. And with new management stepping in this summer, it seems like they want to go in another direction. After nearly four full years as the Magic’s starter, the team is no further along in making the Playoffs. And Payton is at least partly the reason.

For all his production offensively, his defense has remained a major problem. He struggles to negotiate screens generally keep his man in front of him. The Magic’s defense as a whole is not very good, but even with a solid rim protector like Bismack Biyombo on the floor, the Magic’s defense suffers with Payton on the floor.

According to NBA.com, the Magic have a 113.4 defensive rating with Payton on the floor. That is the worst mark among the Magic’s rotation players. Sure, the Magic are a bad defensive team anyway, but the team seems worse with Payton on the floor.

It is still not quite certain whether he can lead a team in any meaningful way. His shooting is an easy scapegoat, but it is his defense and consistency that really get him in trouble.

How does anyone value that?

The Magic are probably going to look for a new point guard this summer. Even if the Magic signed Payton to his qualifying offer or a small long-term deal, this is a major position of need for the Magic. The team’s decision to pass on Dennis Smith gave him a temporary reprieve. This year’s draft is not full of point guards either and so maybe the Magic will feel they have to retain Payton for at least another year.

They are not about to break the bank on him like they will with his draftmate, Aaron Gordon.

Whoever wants to acquire Payton will also acquire his restricted free agency rights. They will get that benefit and the potential to match any offer. That might be enough to entice a team to take the chance and keep him. Especially in a free agent market that looks to be a bit tight on cash.

If there is a team that needs a point guard — either as a starter or as a backup — Payton could prove to be a productive and affordable player. But his success might be dependent on the roster around him. Give him the space to attack, and he will put up a ton of numbers. Congest that space with poor shooters — like the Magic have — and his inconsistency on that end shows up.

So where might Payton end up?

The Magic are likely looking for some player who can contribute and add to their collective. New president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman seems to value guards with length and defense. But undoubtedly the team needs shooting.

The Magic, with the worst record in the league at the moment, are going to need just about everything to refill their roster. They may turn to the draft to fill the point guard need that would be left if they traded Payton.

If Payton is available, who might be interested?

Reggie Jackson will not be out forever, but the Detroit Pistons could certainly use a point guard to help them get over the hump in the Playoff race. It is no secret the Pistons are trying to trade Jackson. And pairing Elfrid Payton and Ish Smith together leaves a lack of shooting at the position.

Orlando might have interest in disappointing youngster Stanley Johnson to add to bolster their perimeter defense off the bench. Without an adequate backup point guard for the time being, the Pistons are searching for some point guard help. They may have the shooting and defense needed to cover up for Payton.

The Oklahoma City Thunder could use some immediate point guard help. Raymond Felton has played better than expected, averaging 6.9 points per game and shooting 42.1 percent from the floor. But they could use a boost behind Westbrook. Of course, what do the Thunder have to offer the Magic? They are not likely to let go of any veterans the Magic might want or give up any valuable draft picks (not that the Magic are particularly interested in draft picks).

The Brooklyn Nets always seem to be searching for young players to give a chance. Without any draft picks coming their way, they have found value in taking on these young players, showing the willingness to invest in them because they do not have much other maneuverability.

With so many other young players they may want to hold onto, who are they willing to give up? Who would the Magic want as they try to figure out what direction they want to head?

The Denver Nuggets could use a true point guard to help balance their lineup. Payton would fit that bill and prove to be an upgrade over the shoehorned Garry Harris or Jamal Murray. And certainly an upgrade over the mercurial Emmanual Mudiay. The Magic might be willing to take back Mudiay and give him a chance — a swap of struggling point guards on their rookie deals — or even take on a bigger contract to fill out their roster.

Next: The 20 best NBA players who could be available at the trade deadline

Finding a new home for Payton gets very difficult. The Magic’s uncertain future and uncertain desires with their roster construction make it more difficult to figure out. The Magic certainly seems open to listening to deals on just about everyone. And Payton is certainly at the top of the list.

But like the Magic’s uncertain path, Payton has an uncertain path too. It is hard to know what to make of him even after four seasons in the league. He can produce, that much is clear. But covering up his limitations and figuring out his proper role for a winning team reamins a much more difficult question.

That could make Payton’s trade outlook this February all the more difficult to foresee.