Fansided

College Football Recruiting: How last 10 national champions fared on recruiting trail

By John Buhler

ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban receives the CFP trophy during the trophy presentation at the conclusion of the College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs on January 8, 2018 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. The Alabama Crimson Tide won the game in overtime 26-23. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 08: Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban receives the CFP trophy during the trophy presentation at the conclusion of the College Football Playoff National Championship Game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs on January 8, 2018 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. The Alabama Crimson Tide won the game in overtime 26-23. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

To win a national title in college football, a program must recruit well. Here are the recruiting classes that made up the last 10 national champions.

In college football, it is just as important winning on the recruiting trails as it is on the gridiron on fall Saturdays. Without the right players in place, it is tremendously difficult for a program to contend annually in the College Football Playoff era.

With National Signing Day coming on Feb. 7, let’s take a look at the last 10 national champions to see how those programs did leading up to winning a national title. Is it inferred that a program will need at least one top-five recruiting class in a four-year cycle to contend? If not, what defines an outlier program and how can that program win a title?

Here are the last 10 FBS College Football National Champions and their four recruiting classes that made up those teams.

Class rankings are by 247Sports, listed from freshman class to senior class.

Last 10 FBS College Football National Champions

  • 2017: Alabama Crimson Tide (1, 1, 1, 1)
  • 2016: Clemson Tigers (11, 9, 16, 15)
  • 2015: Alabama Crimson Tide (1, 1, 1, 1)
  • 2014: Ohio State Buckeyes (3, 2, 5, 6)
  • 2013: Florida State Seminoles (11, 4, 2, 8)
  • 2012: Alabama Crimson Tide (1, 1, 4, 3)
  • 2011: Alabama Crimson Tide (1, 4, 3, 3)
  • 2010: Auburn Tigers (6, 23, 21, 9)
  • 2009: Alabama Crimson Tide (3, 3, 12, 13)
  • 2008: Florida Gators (5, 1, 2, 12)

As you can see, the Alabama Crimson Tide have won five of the last nine national titles during the Nick Saban era. The SEC has won seven of the last 10 national titles, the ACC has won two and the Big Ten has won one. No other team besides the Crimson Tide have won more than one national title in the last decade.

It’s easy to see why Alabama has been so utterly dominant in the collegiate landscape. From 2011 to 2017, the Crimson Tide had the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, according to 247 Sports. That’s complete recruiting trail domination if there ever was such a thing. However, Alabama is only No. 5 in the 2018 recruiting cycle. It doesn’t help that Saban has lost a ton of his best recruiters to other Power 5 jobs.

By looking at the data, eight of the last 10 national champions have had at least two top-five recruiting classes. The exceptions are the 2010 Auburn Tigers and the 2016 Clemson Tigers. Auburn’s best recruiting class on that 2010 team was the freshman class, which was No. 6. It should be noted that Auburn’s senior class that year was No. 9 in 2007.

Clemson’s best recruiting class on that 2016 team was the sophomore class of 2015, which was No. 9 nationally. The Tigers only had one top-10 recruiting class on a team that won a national title. So Clemson’s championship was slightly more impressive than Auburn’s in terms of winning despite recruiting efforts.

So why did these two programs win national champions? It’s pretty simple. Auburn and Clemson had first-round dual-threat franchise quarterback talent on that team. Cam Newton led Auburn to the 2010 national title over Chip Kelly’s Oregon Ducks. Deshaun Watson beat Alabama on the final play of regulation in 2016.

Basically, you need a superstar collegiate quarterback that can both run a throw to win a national title if your program hasn’t had two top-five recruiting classes in the last four years. So which teams have the best shot at winning the 2018 National Championship, meaning they have two top-five classes in the last four years (2015-2018)?

So if we follow that logic, six programs would satisfy having two top-five classes in the last four years, assuming this year’s class rankings hold steady (they won’t, but whatever): Alabama, Florida State Seminoles, Georgia Bulldogs, LSU Tigers, Ohio State Buckeyes, USC Trojans.

Alabama has had four top-five recruiting classes. Ohio State has had three (2016-18). Georgia’s two have come in the last year, including No. 1 in 2018. Florida State’s came in 2015 and 2016. The same for LSU. USC finished in the top-five in both 2015 and 2017.

The four other programs to have one top-five recruiting class are the Penn State Nittany Lions (2018), the Texas Longhorns (2018), the Michigan Wolverines (2017) and the Tennessee Volunteers (2015). Tennessee is in complete disarray and has a new coaching staff in place. It’s safe to say that Rocky Top isn’t contending in 2018. Florida State, LSU and Texas have all undergone coaching changes in the last two years, so we’ll see.

Next: 50 best college football programs of all time

Right now, your three best bets to win the 2018 National Championship are Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. It’s hard to rule out Clemson because Dabo Swinney has had his program in the College Football Playoff each of the last three years. In terms of dynamic dual-threat quarterback, what about Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats of the Pac-12? Just kidding, but Kevin Sumlin can coach.

Home/College Football