League Cup semifinals: How should Chelsea line up vs. Arsenal?

How will Chelsea line up in Wednesday’s League Cup semifinal against Arsenal at the Emirates?

Chelsea will meet Arsenal for the third and final time this month on Wednesday to decide who moves on to the League Cup final. While it may not be the most glorious hardware, it’s a trophy nonetheless. Antonio Conte emphasized the importance of getting to the final in his pre-match press conference. The last three matches between these sides have ended in draws (0-0; 2-2; 0-0), so how should Chelsea line up in this one to give themselves the best chance of moving on to the final?

Personnel

While Conte would’ve liked his squad at full strength, that isn’t going to happen. The Chelsea manager confirmed Tuesday a few of his star players have been ruled out for the Arsenal match. Striker Alvaro Morata will not play against Arsenal due to a recent injury to his back. Neither will former Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas, who has missed the last few matches due to injury. Although Fabregas has been in training, he’s not yet fully fit in Conte’s eyes.

In addition to the two no-go’s, Conte named three players in the ‘doubtful’ category. Thibaut Courtois, Gary Cahill and Danny Drinkwater all have a 50-50 chance of playing. Conte said he’d have to check on the situations of each before the match tomorrow. If Cahill and Drinkwater make appearances on Wednesday, it’ll likely be off the bench. With Antonio Rudiger’s recent form, there’s no need to rush Cahill back into action and Drinkwater is a regular substitute anyway. However, Courtois played a vital role in Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal a few weeks ago; it’d be a surprise not to see him start. He’s had the last two matches off, missing last weekend’s Premier League bout with Brighton with an ankle injury. But, it never seemed too severe.

While the status of Cahill, Drinkwater and Courtois is unknown, one thing is certain: Conte will field the strongest team available to him. It’s important Chelsea reach the final, seeing as the Premier League trophy is seemingly out of reach and the Blues have a long and treacherous road to even reach the Champions League final. Therefore, the best shots at a trophy this season come in the FA and League Cup. With an FA Cup match against Newcastle on Sunday, Conte can afford to field his strongest side on Wednesday.

Formation

Although Conte has experimented with the 3-5-2 a lot this season, Chelsea’s success has come in the 3-4-3 — much like last season. However, Arsene Wenger and his squad have always seemed to have Chelsea’s number when the Blues line up in a 3-4-3. Most recently, the Blues broke a goalscoring drought when lining up in a 3-4-3 against Brighton. But it’ll be interesting to see which formation Conte goes with. Does the Italian stick with the 3-4-3, or throw a curveball at the Gunners in a 3-5-2? Here’s how the team could line up in each.

3-4-3

Subs: Caballero, Cahill, Luiz, Zappacosta, Musonda, Barkley, Pedro

It seems as if the Blues are going to run the 3-4-3, and very few changes will be made from the weekend. If any change is to be made, it’s in goal as the Blues would go with Courtois as opposed to Willy Caballero. Even though Caballero has done a fantastic job in the last two matches, Courtois is one of the best keepers in the world. He’s had some fantastic performances against Arsenal as of late and it’d be a shame not to see him in goal for the Blues.

Meanwhile, picking Rudiger over Cahill seems the right decision given Cahill’s not fully fit and Rudiger’s in fine form. Alongside him are the usual suspects — Andreas Christensen and Cesar Azpilicueta. Azpilicueta is a lock and despite picking up a slight knock against Brighton, so is Christensen. The only disputed position is left-back, unless David Luiz makes a surprise start.

In the midfield, Conte’s likely to stick with his trusted veterans. Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses, despite a ton of minutes, have been well rested and in fine form recently. Moses even got on the score sheet against Brighton on the weekend. Meanwhile, the pairing of N’Golo Kante and Tiemoue Bakayoko provide a solid second line of defense in the midfield. Despite a shaky start to the season, Bakayoko has come around as of late and finally seems to have adjusted to the English game.

Up front is where things get interesting. With Morata out again, Conte is forced to rely on Michy Batshuayi once more. However, that may not be such a bad thing. Batshuayi’s chemistry with Eden Hazard and Willian was apparent against Brighton. The three thrived, combining for three goals. Conte noted he has yet to make a decision on the starting XI. But he didn’t rule out using this trio up front yet again.

3-4-3 (false 9)

Subs: Caballero, Cahill, Luiz, Zappacosta, Musonda, Barkley, Batshuayi

This is largely the same as the previously mentioned 3-4-3 formation. However, there’s a bit of a change up front. Throughout the course of the year, Conte has strayed away from using Batshuayi in big game situations. He could do the same against Arsenal. Using Hazard as a false nine has been one of the ways Conte has adjusted without Alvaro Morata. So, be on the lookout for Hazard to play up front with Pedro (returning from suspension) and Willian.

The three provide excellent pace up front and a lethal counter-attack. Conte noted the team must be prepared to let Arsenal hold the ball for a majority of the match. Therefore, these three would fit Conte’s counter-attacking plans perfectly. Much like last season, the Blues love to score on the break. If Conte turns to a false 9, expect the Blues to let Arsenal control possession, but strike a lethal blow once they turn up field.

Next: 10 best League Cup finals ever

3-5-2

Subs: Caballero, Cahill, Luiz, Zappacosta, Musonda, Willian, Pedro

This is where things get a bit interesting. If Conte turns to the 3-5-2 formation — which he has a lot this season — expect to see a new name in the midfield. For weeks, the eyes of Chelsea fans have been on Ross Barkley. Even though Barkley has technically debuted for the Blues already (he scored a brace in 70 minutes during a closed-door friendly against QPR), he has yet to be seen by the public. Barkley has been patiently waiting for his public debut for weeks. At first, he had been slated to play in the FA Cup replay until ruled ineligible. Then it was the match against Brighton until the unexpected knock to Christensen. There isn’t a better time than the present.

Barkley has been a part of the team for a few weeks and is now fully healthy. So why not give him a shot? Sticking the 24-year-old in the heart of the midfield in a 3-5-2 would be perfect for him. Usually it’s Fabregas in the middle of the 3-5-2, but he’s unavailable for the match. Not to mention, Arsenal have yet to see Barkley this season. Could he possibly make his season and Chelsea debut?

Up front, Hazard would either play alongside Batshuayi or off him. Conte’s typically pushed the striker a bit ahead of Hazard and let Hazard play off the striker in the past. The two showed great chemistry up front and Batshuayi seemed to do better when he had another attacker around him to dump the ball to — as opposed to turning toward goal and letting one go or getting dispossessed. Conte has a few different options for the match on Wednesday, but this seems to be the most intriguing. The possibility of seeing Barkley’s debut makes things a lot more interesting. Unfortunately, we’ll just have to wait until Wednesday afternoon to see what the manager decides.