This Week in Stats: Arsenal run riot against Crystal Palace

Arsenal scored four in 22 minutes, Sergio Aguero continued his one man war against Newcastle and expected goals predicted Southampton and Tottenham’s draw.

Prior to kick off, Arsenal had won just two of their last nine league matches. Their last game was a limp 2-1 loss at Bournemouth. The arrival of an in-form Crystal Palace side would not have been welcomed.

Fortunately for Gunners fans everywhere, their side rattled in four goals in the opening 22 minutes. Palace put in a surprisingly poor performance, particularly on set pieces. Roy Hodgson prides himself on having a well organized team, so he’ll be bitterly disappointed.

Arsenal have a reputation of being soccer purists, forever intent on walking the ball into the net. Two of their four goals here came from corners, though, and that makes them the joint-top scorers of corner goals this season.

The Gunners scored an aesthetically pleasing goal, too, when Alexandre Lacazette bagged their fourth. Their shots to that point were worth a total of 2.4 expected goals, more than they managed in any of their previous eight league games.

Palace improved after halftime, though it would’ve been hard not to. Their one clear-cut chance fell to Christian Benteke, but he’s having a woeful season, finishing-wise.

The Belgian has had 16 clear-cut chances this season, and has now missed 15 of them. Mohamed Salah and Alvaro Morata have also missed 15 this season, but as they’ve scored 10 and nine, respectively, they won’t be quite so bothered.

Using an expected goals simulator reveals there’s just a 0.14 percent chance a player would score one of 16 clear-cut chances (when one was a penalty). It’s more likely he’d have scored 12 than one. Palace would be having a really great season if Benteke’s finishing was up to par.

Manchester City got back on track against Newcastle

Why does Sergio Aguero hate Newcastle so much? The Argentine sharp shooter scored a hat-trick as Manchester City won 3-1. Aguero has now scored 14 goals against the Magpies in his career, at least four more than he’s scored against any other team.

He also had seven shots to Newcastle’s six in this match. As his efforts included a penalty, they were worth more in expected goal terms too. But that’s not to say Newcastle didn’t have decent chances of their own.

Rafa Benitez’s side were particularly efficient with their attacking. Newcastle completed just 19 final third passes, a long way short of their away average of 54. They also had their fewest shots on the road in 2017-18, but two of them were clear-cut chances.

One of those was in stoppage time, so it wouldn’t have affected the result even if Dwight Gayle had scored. The other was Jacob Murphy’s goal. For the second week running, City conceded an (Opta-defined) counter-attacking goal. Perhaps this is the best way for teams to get at them?

Something else that happened for the second match in a row was an error by Ederson. The Brazilian goalkeeper failed to hold a shot from Mo Diame, then compounded the mistake by fumbling the ball to Ayoze Perez. Ederson then saved Perez’ shot, but his impressive debut campaign is beginning to be undermined by mistakes.

City have allowed their opponents over one expected goal only seven times in the league in 2017-18. This has happened three times in the last four, though, and in the other game they conceded four goals. They’ll win the league comfortably this season, but they’re starting to look a little creaky at the back.

Next: 5 players Chelsea should try to sign in January

Stats correctly predicted an unlikely result at Southampton

Expected goals is a handy shorthand to summarize the quality of chances each team had in a match. If you compile the data for a whole season, you can also use that information to predict the outcome of future matches.

Doing so ahead of Southampton vs. Tottenham gave an outcome of a 1-1 draw, not what you’d expect if you were only to look at the form book. The Saints hadn’t won any of their previous 10 league matches, while Spurs averaged two points per game in the same period.

But for an own goal by Davinson Sanchez, perhaps Tottenham would’ve won. After Harry Kane copied fellow Londoners Arsenal and Palace by scoring from a corner, Spurs had a further seven shots in the box while Southampton only mustered three. The goal was Kane’s fourth in the league with his head in 2017-18, more than in the past two seasons combined.

The home side had two of the game’s three clear-cut chances, though, so were worth a point. The latter of their golden opportunities fell to Michael Obafemi, a 17-year-old making his debut. It would’ve been quite the story had he netted his superb chance with five minutes to go.

Back to the expected goals numbers, and the actual prediction was Southampton 1.2, Tottenham 1.4. What were the tallies in the match? 1.2 vs. 1.5. This sort of thing won’t happen with this degree of accuracy too often, but if you think a match is going to be a forgone conclusion, a little peek at the numbers might just change your mind.