NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday January 24
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate only had three players that topped the 50 fantasy point mark with the usual suspects of Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and LeBron James at our top 3 scorers. A pair of Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge and Dejounte Murray both put up 49.5 fantasy points as a short-handed Spurs team took advantage of an elite match-up with a defensively challenged Cavaliers squad that is flat-out reeling right now!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate?
Welcome back to Picks and Pivots where we kick off hump day with a first look at a nine game NBA slate. What stands out to me at first glance is that even with 18 teams in action, only three of them actually see a material pace boost of 2 or more possessions and we have three games waiting on totals due to some injury issues we have to monitor. Most of the teams in action will be well rested as only two teams are on the tail end of a back to back (Celtics and Spurs) so especially in the case of San Antonio be aware of some potential rest days that could impact how we build our rosters.
The biggest piece of injury news we are waiting on right now is the status of Jimmy Butler who has missed the last two games with an injury alongside teammate Jamal Crawford. Andrew Wiggins ($13K) was the biggest beneficiary of these players being out last game as he dropped 51 fantasy points on the back of 40 actual points and frankly his over reliance on scoring at this price point makes him a total stay away for me against one of the best defenses in the league in Portland. These two teams have faced off twice already this season and Butler is the only player to exceed 40 fantasy points in either game so outside of taking a shot on a guy like Nemanja Bjelica ($8.2K) who put up 37 fantasy points last game, this is probably a spot to avoid.
It sounds like Myles Turner could return tonight for Indiana off the bench which would really hurt the value of Domantas Sabonis in a dream match-up versus the Suns. Over the course of the season the Suns have been one of the teams we usually go all-in against but interestingly enough they have drastically slow down their pace of play over the last 15 games, ranking only 19th in pace of play which is down from their season long ranking of 4. On the other side of this game, no team in the NBA has played at a slower pace over the last 15 games than the Indiana Pacers so on paper this may seem like a spot to exploit but on FantasyDraft where they have priced up guys like Victor Oladipo ($17K), Devin Booker ($15.5K) and T.J. Warren ($14.4K) it may actually make sense to fade this spot and let others chase what they perceive to be a fast paced match-up against two teams that are actually playing at a snail’s pace recently!
It feels like we write this everyday but the Grizzlies are going to be short-handed again as Mike Conley, James Ennis, Chandler Parson and JaMychal Green are already ruled out and Jarrell Martin who has played 31 and 34 minutes the last two games is also questionable. In general this is probably one of the ugliest games on the slate between the Grizzlies and Spurs so on a nine game slate I have no issue avoiding it entirely and letting other sort through this mess!
NBA DFS – Trust The Process:
As I do each day in Picks and Pivots, my goal is to look through the slate and identify the top game environments to help us isolate the best spots to build around which can be incredibly helpful on a slate this size where we have so many options.
There is one game that no matter how I sliced it, continued to jump out to me as the clear top spot to build around and that is the Bulls and Sixers. This game has the second highest projected total on the board at 218.5, a 5 point spread and a game projected to play at the fastest pace. In fact over the last 15 games, the Sixers rank third in pace while the Bulls rank fourth, setting this game up for an all out track meet!
The Bulls are coming off a double OT battle with the Pelicans so their game logs may be a bit skewed but the reality is that Chicago sees the largest pace boost on the slate while seeing the third highest projected point increase over their season long numbers.
The best place to attack the Sixers is at SG where they rank 25th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff and Justin Holiday ($11k) was able to put up 35 fantasy points against this Philadelphia team the last time they met on December 18th in a game where Kris Dunn was on the floor. It looks like Dunn will sit out again tonight due to lingering concussion issues as it relates to his nasty on court fall which means we should see all the Jerian Grant ($11.4K) again tonight. Grant was spectacular against the Pelicans, playing 47 minutes and racking up 22 points, 13 assists, 5 rebounds and 53 fantasy points!
Lauri Markannen ($13.3K) is the most expensive member of the Bulls and is coming off a 44 fantasy point outing of his own where he racked up 14 points and 17 rebounds against the front line of the Pelicans. The fact that Markannen was able to stay out of foul trouble and produce at a high level against an athletic versatile front court like New Orleans should give us confidence in a similar match-up today against the Sixers big men!
Remember 48 hours ago when the Pelicans played this Chicago team and people around DFS all day were saying – how are they going to stop the Pelicans big men? Well after DeMarcus Cousins dropped 100 fantasy points, how can you not simply say the same thing about Joel Embiid ($18.3K) in this spot? Embiid sat out the first time these teams met but with 30+ minutes locked and loaded for the Sixers big man, he has slate breaking upside that will be hard for me to pivot off of.
The Sixers will be without J.J. Reddick again tonight but we also now know that T.J. McConnell will be out due to personal reasons which leaves Jerryd Bayless (questionable to play) and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot as the only healthy guard options. You know what that means? Ben Simmons ($13.9K) is going to get all the minutes he can handle and will take on a Bulls team he triple-doubled against the last meeting (without Embiid to be fair) for 57 fantasy points! I have been a Simmons fade train conductor for weeks now but the price point and match-up tonight make this a great spot to jump back on tonight in my opinion.
Dario Saric ($13.1K) and Robert Covington ($11.2K) have each put up 30+ fantasy points in their last two games and with all the injuries to the Sixers bench, I think there is a viable strategy in stacking the healthy remaining starters. Look back at the last game the Sixers played where only 6 players played 28 or more minutes and that included McConnell who will sit out this game tonight, leaving the Sixers core starters to log heavy minutes in a fast paced game environment.
I never like stacking the very first game of the night as you know there is only one way to go as the night goes on, but maybe tonight you stack this spot up – screenshot your massive winnings and head to bed early and pretend there are no games after 9PM EST!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays:
One stat that stood out to me when I started my research today was that no team in the NBA has played at a faster pace over the last 15 games than the Los Angeles Clippers. On the season, the Clippers rank outside the top 10 so paying attention to the recent trends makes this one of the best spots to attack as the Celtics and Clippers face-off.
My only concern here is that the Celtics are playing their third game in four nights including being on the tail end of a back to back. The silver lining is that the back to back is against the Lakers and Clippers which is about the easiest back to back you could ask for travel wise since, well there is no travel needed.
Kyrie Irving ($16.5K and $8.2K on FanDuel) is one of my favorite plays on FanDuel as he has put up 58 and 42 fantasy points over his last two games and the volume of shot attempts in his recent outings is off the charts as he has put up 20+ FGA in five straight games! Al Horford ($13.4K and $6.7K) actually saw his price go DOWN on FanDuel after dropping 41 fantasy points last night versus the Lakers and will take on a Clippers team without DeAndre Jordan protecting the interior.
The Clippers side of this game is interesting as Blake Griffin ($16.9K) is coming off a near 70 fantasy point game in his last outing and Lou Williams ($15.5K) has the full on All-Star snub narrative going in his favor.
Damn right. Smh https://t.co/sbHuK4fqD3
— Lou Williams (@TeamLou23) January 24, 2018
After a historic night out it would be crazy not to mention DeMarcus Cousins and the Pelicans who are in the highest projected scoring game of the night against the Hornets. The Hornets are the highest projected scoring team on the slate, expected to score 7 points higher than their season average and see the third largest pace boost on the slate. All the usual suspects are in play but the prices of guys like Boogie/Brow who are both at $20K or higher on FantasyDraft make them a tough investment when we have such exceptional game environments elsewhere.
Rather than make this a spot we lock in on the stars, you could pull secondary plays from here to capitalize on the game environment with players like Marvin Williams ($7.8K). Williams is locked into minutes in the mid to upper 20’s and has put up 30 or more fantasy points in three of his last six outings. Although the Hornets and Pelicans have not played this year, they did get a last season match-up last year when the Pelicans had both big men active and we saw Williams log 40 minutes and put up 45 fantasy points in that game. It is interesting to note that both Hornets/Pelicans games went to OT last season so the game logs are a bit skewed as a result! I doubt Marvin will be a player that people flock to roster but taking this fringe players like Williams or Jeremy Lamb, give you high upside exposure to a game environment that is expected to be flooded with fantasy points!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,200)
PG: Terry Rozier ($3,700)
SG: Justin Holiday ($5,600)
SG: Lou Williams ($8,600)
SF: Nemanja Bjelica ($3,600)
SF: Lance Stephenson ($3,900)
PF: Ben Simmons ($8,700)
PF: Lauri Markkanen ($6,700)
C: Joel Embiid ($11,000)
Slate overview: The more I look at this slate the more I want to zero in on a handful of game environments and simplify my roster builds and the best spot in my opinion to build around is Philly/Chicago. On FanDuel especially the pricing is “soft” enough where you can still get exposure to 1-2 studs in a fast paced Celtics/Clippers game even after you lock in guys like Embiid, Simmons, Markkanen and Holiday. Assuming the Wolves can continue to supply us with value, this should be a solid stars and scrubs night to build around in GPP’s!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!