NBA Trade Deadline Portfolio 2018: Mike Conley

After signing a five-year, $153 million contract in 2016, the largest contract to that point in NBA history, Mike Conley has had an up-and-down 18 months, culminating in an injury to his Achilles tendon in mid-November that’s kept him out for more than two months and may just end his 2017-18 campaign altogether.

Memphis has fallen from a consistent playoff performer to the dregs of the Western Conference, which may play into their hesitancy to bring Conley back on a quicker timetable. With fellow $20 million man Chandler Parsons also sidelined with any one of a cavalcade of injuries that have cut short his time on the court, the team’s vast underperformance this season, and the increasing likelihood that Marc Gasol will want out at some point in the near future, the Grizzlies have to be looking to sell at this trade deadline. Getting out in front of things will help Memphis recoup as much value as possible for their aging stars and the injured Conley could be at the top of their to-do list.

When healthy, there’s no doubt that Conley is one of the ten best point guards in the NBA. His combination of feisty defense, outside shooting prowess, and ability to create for himself and others puts him in rarefied air among lead ball-handlers who can truly do it all for a team. Conley’s tenacious nature shines through on both ends of the floor, where he’s been a key leader for the Grizzlies throughout the Grit N’ Grind era.

After putting up a career-best performance last season, the first of his five-year deal, his and the Grizzlies’ futures were looking up, but injuries have sidetracked what should have been another quality year from the 30-year-old point guard. Whether Conley will retain the explosiveness off of one foot for those off-hand floaters and lateral quickness on defense is an open question, as is his future health — Achilles soreness usually isn’t something that goes away permanently and the threat looms that the tendon will either tear completely or the soreness will creep back up at any moment. Still, the gamble will be worthwhile for a team who needs help at the point guard position and could use Conley’s jack-of-all-trades skill set.

As for the why, as Clive Owen would put it, it’s exceedingly simple. Memphis is trending in the wrong direction and Conley’s an expensive, older player who won’t be around for the next great Grizzlies team. He and Gasol have been a package deal their entire careers and though they may not be headed for the same destination (though that would be a lot of fun, wouldn’t it?), their exits from Memphis seem to be tied closely to one another. Neither will want to stay without the other and both wield enough power in the organization to get out if their partner in crime has been shipped out.

The Grizzlies have a motivation to sell, as this season already looks lost and rebuilding around future draft picks will be easier the earlier they get started. Additionally, they owe a top-eight protected first-round pick to Boston next season — keeping Conley and Gasol only makes it more likely that pick will be conveyed, whereas jumping up in the lottery by getting rid of their two stars would stave off their conveyance of that pick to the Celtics and would allow them to get two or three high first-rounders under their belt before the pick becomes unprotected in 2021, by which time their rebuild could be close to complete.

The combination of his salary and injury situation make things complicated for any trade to occur. Conley makes $28.5 million this season and has three more after, each adding about $2 million to his annual salary. Any team acquiring Conley has to have the assets to send back to Memphis and the matching salary to pass the NBA’s trade rules, which can be difficult when the numbers get this large. Teams at the top may have some salary to move, but those teams are looking for immediate help that Conley can’t provide and may not want to wait until he’s ready to go next season.

There’s a possibility that he could return sooner than that but working a recovering player into a new offense with just two months left on the calendar until the start of the playoffs is a risk many contenders won’t be willing to take. Teams in the middle of a playoff push will be the Grizzlies’ best option but finding a team with the required salary flotsam to send back to Memphis is difficult.

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Denver has been long rumored to be in the market for a point guard to play alongside Jamal Murray and take the reins when Murray sits, and they have the salary to send back to Memphis, as well as a young player or two the Grizzlies’ could use in their rebuilding efforts. Players like Kenneth Faried ($12.9 million this season), Darrell Arthur ($7.5 million), and Will Barton ($3.5 million) aren’t parts of the Nuggets’ long-term plan and may have varying degrees of value to Memphis. Throw in a pick or a younger prospect like Malik Beasley or Juancho Hernangomez and the Grizzlies would really have to think about cutting bait on Conley. Faried has another year on his contract but Arthur’s deal expires this year and Barton’s full Bird rights could be valuable as he goes into free agency this summer.

For Denver, Conley would be another star to add to the mix alongside Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in the frontcourt, as well as the aforementioned Murray as a backcourt partner. The Nuggets have a win-now mentality but also could afford to take a slight step back and bring Conley into the fold slowly, as Jokic will likely sign a max contract this offseason and solidify his place in Denver for years to come.