Alex Reyes: Don’t believe the fantasy baseball hype
By Gavin Tramps
The excitement within the fantasy community about Cardinals’ Alex Reyes return is immense, but many owners are likely to be disappointed.
New Jersey native Alex Reyes was shipped to the Dominican Republic with the sole intention of improving this chances of signing with a Major League team, rather than waiting for the amateur draft. It worked.
Reyes became one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the game, featuring on the top-10 lists of all prospect evaluators and topping out as the No.1 prospect for Baseball Prospectus before the 2017 season.
Not that his progress was easy, the right-hander worryingly hit the DL with shoulder soreness in 2015 and later that year, a positive test for marijuana at the Arizona Fall League resulted in a 50-game ban.
He rebounded in 2016 to become an almost mythical pitcher before the dreaded UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) in his pitching arm needed replacing. The news broke on the second day of camp in February 2017 and the 12-18 month timetable was predicted.
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The stat that is always thrown up in support of Reyes is the minuscule 1.57 ERA over his first 12 games in the Major League. Unquestionably, it was a stunning performance but 46 innings is a very small sample size, so small in fact that he has retained rookie-eligibility.
The other fact that is often lost is that most of these appearances were out of the bullpen. As a starter, Reyes posted 2.20 ERA, still impressive but less memorable.
The third fact that is omitted in defense of Reyes’ talents is that he posted 4.96 ERA in Triple-A that season. He had an exceptional strikeout rate of 12.8 SO/9 but was wild with 1.45 WHIP. Walks have always haunted him and he possesses a career 4.6 BB/9.
Reyes had his Tommy John surgery on February 16, 2017, so the expected return date of May 1 that is being suggested seems aggressively optimistic. Even if his recovery continues on schedule, Reyes will likely be eased gently into Major League action with relief appearances, at least until the All-Star break. The Cardinals are playing for October and cannot risk having to shut Reyes down in a way that the Nationals were memorably forced to shut down Stephen Strasburg after his TJ surgery. Reyes will be on a strict innings limit.
Recovery from Tommy John surgery is not without risks. Almost three years ago Zack Wheeler underwent TJ surgery and two years ago ace-reliever Carter Capps also had UCL reconstruction. Both were exciting, highly rated pitchers but neither has recaptured their pre-surgery form.
Reyes’ teammate Adam Wainwright missed the whole of 2011 and although he is considered a TJ success story, he was only a 1.2 WAR pitcher in his first full year after surgery. The fantasy community is often too optimistic about the timescale and the speed at which pitchers can return to their pre-injury level.
Without a doubt, Reyes needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues (although he probably already has 100% ownership), but fantasy owners need to be careful not to overdraft him in single-season leagues in 2018. If you draft him too early, it will be difficult for him to return any value.