DraftKings NBA picks January 25: Is Westbrook a must play?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 25: Is Westbrook a must play?
We only have four games tonight, but there is still some star power with Westbrook, the short slate maestro. Is he worth paying for? What are the other options? Let’s begin the dissection!
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The money line was down to 268 DraftKings points last night. My lineups fell victim to under par nights from Brow and Dennis Smith, and failed value from Harrell.
The winning lineup was up to 355.75 DraftKings points. He built around Ben Simmons and Drummond and got great value from Wesley Johnson and Wesley Matthews. That lineup even survived a 12 spot from Avery Bradley.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,400): Westbrook didn’t hit value on Tuesday, but he was also present in winnings lineups because he still went for over 50 DraftKings points. It isn’t about value on short slates. Westbrook is a certain 50 on Washington. He may even hit value. At any rate, you likely need to make room for him tonight unless you think Curry can outscore him.
Stephen Curry ($10,400): It is possible that Curry comes close to Westbrook against this defense. That said, Curry “only” went for 48.5 DraftKings points in the first game with Minnesota. This is largely to do with the fact that the Warriors don’t rely on Curry to do everything. Just like the Thunder didn’t when Durant was in Oklahoma City. Curry will have a nice game. He may even hit value. I just doubt he one-ups Westbrook.
Honorable Mention:
Jamal Murray ($6,700): Murray has been an absolute beast over the last two games. He has 102 DraftKings points in those games. That makes him the best value on the slate, and he has a really nice matchup with the Knicks. If you are fading Westbrook, Murray is the guy to have. Hell, you can even fit him in at G with Westbrook for this price!
Jeff Teague ($6,400): Teague put up 25.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Warriors. He has been far too inconsistent to rely on in most cases, but with only four games tonight, exceptions can be made. That said, find the extra $300 for Murray if you like money.
Dark Horses:
Jarrett Jack ($4,600): Say what you want about Jack, but he has been a solid value play most of the season. He is getting a solid 28-30 minutes a night, and consistently putting up 20-25 DraftKings points. If you need to go cheap tonight, you can throw Jack at UTIL for a strong punt play. After all, he did put up 27.75 DraftKings points on Denver the first time around.
Raymond Felton ($3,400): Even a player like Westbrook has to rest sometimes. Felton has put up over 25 DraftKings points in each of the last two games. In fact, Felton has been over 5x value in eight of the last ten games. If you need a really cheap option, Felton is a safe source of value.
My pick: Westbrook(PG), Jack(G), Murray(UTIL); Murray(PF), Jack(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($8,800): I am guessing that if Minnesota weren’t playing back to backs last night and tonight that Butler would have played last night. It was a better matchup last night, but this is still a solid place to use Butler against the Warriors. Minnesota played them the first time before Butler was really comfortable in the offense. There is potential here since I’m guessing that Butler should hit the 40’s in DraftKings points again.
Honorable Mention:
Josh Richardson ($6,300): Richardson has only dropped under 25 DraftKings points twice during the absence of Dion Waiters. That gives him a great floor, though Richardson has not scored above 40 DraftKings points in that span either. Others have reaped more rewards than Richardson, but he is a steady value pick. I like Richardson more for cash games, but he is also in play in a weaker position tonight. A position that weakens significantly if Butler sits again.
Klay Thompson ($6,300): Thompson put up big numbers against Minnesota in the first meeting. He is not a consistent value play, but Thompson should be able to hit value tonight considering he had 44 DraftKings points in the first meeting. There is a big drop off from Butler unless he misses this game as well.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($5,000): I’m a big fan of Hield, but it makes me nervous even typing this. However, Hield has at least 5x value in three straight games. His minutes have been steady at 25-28, so if he can keep his hot shooting up, there is potential here. Hield coming off the bench limits how much upside he actually has, but Hield is one of the best shooters in the league when he gets hot. That’s the kind of potential you want for GPP purposes.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,900): Bogdanovic and Hield are the only ones getting consistent minutes in the backcourt. Tuesday DFS monster Garrett Temple will be the one losing minutes with George Hill back in the fold. Bogdanovic is the most consistent option, with Hield carrying the most upside.
My pick: Bogdanovic(SG); Hield(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,900): Durant is almost always between 45 and 50 DraftKings points with the Warriors at full strength. You know you are getting a certain 40-42 out of Durant, but you likely wont get much over 50 without someone else sitting out. That said, 50 on a short slate is a hot commodity. I’m not crazy about this matchup for KD. I think Curry has the better matchup if you are looking at a Warriors player to build around.
Paul George ($7,600): George had a five game streak earlier this month where he didn’t hit 40 DraftKings points once. He seems to be back on track, hitting that mark in three of the last four outings. This is a strong matchup against Washington tonight. George should go well over 5x value in this one.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($7,000): Wiggins has gone berserk with Butler out, which has catapulted his price into an unsustainable range once Butler returns. However, I have to cover all my bases. If Butler is out, Wiggins is in, no questions asked. This may also be a good enough matchup to use Wiggins in even if Butler returns, especially if it’s in a limited capacity. The problem is that this is the late game, so we likely wont have news before lineup lock.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,300): Hardaway was cold from the field against the Warriors on Tuesday, but the main thing to take away from that game is that Hardaway played 35 minutes, the most since his return. Hardaway put up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Nuggets this year. He is a solid play tonight, especially if his shot starts falling.
Dark Horses:
Nemanja Bjelica ($4,500): Bjelica has been outstanding with Butler out. If for some reason Butler sits again, I am putting both Bjelica and Wiggins in my lineups again. It is a good value punch to work around tonight in what should be an up-tempo game. If Butler does return, I don’t think Bjelica sees enough minutes to hit value at this price, so avoid in that scenario.
Andre Roberson ($3,800): Roberson’s streak of 20+ DraftKings points games came to an end against the solid Nets forwards on Tuesday night. He could begin another one here since Washington isn’t all that strong defending either forward position. Roberson’s minute role in the offense makes sure that he has no palpable upside, but he is a solid value play if you need more than one tonight.
My pick: Roberson(SF); George(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,300): Porzingis went for 55.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Denver this season, so if he is able to take the court, I’m interested. However, the little nagging injuries on Porzingis make it hard to use him. We have all been burned by him at one time or another this year. The issue here is that Porzingis will likely be a game time call, and that call wont come nearly early enough for the full lineup lock. If we get confirmation that he is in though, I love him at this price.
Michael Beasley ($6,200): Beastley is practically interchangeable with Porzingis right now. Okay, so Beasley isn’t going to drop 50, but he’s good for at least 30 if Porzingis is ruled out. I don’t like the price if Beasley isn’t starting, but if he is in the starting lineup again, he will be in mine as well.
Honorable Mention:
Carmelo Anthony ($6,100): This is a pretty good spot for Melo as well considering the struggles of the Washington forwards playing defense. Anthony saw a streak of three straight games with more than 20 points from the field come to an end against Brooklyn. It is very possible that he starts another one here against the Wizards.
Trey Lyles ($5,200): I trust Lyles far more than the volatility of Otto Porter or Taj going against Draymond. Lyles continues to be a strong fill in for Millsap. As long as Millsap is out, Lyles is worth rolling out there, though he doesn’t have a ton of upside.
Dark Horses:
Skal Labissiere ($5,000): Skal has averaged 24.3 DraftKings points over the last ten games. That figure climbs more than two more points over the last five. He still isn’t starting, but with Zach Randolph on the back burner, Labissiere has thrived as the first off the bench. Look for him to gain the starting role at some point, but the Kings aren’t going to mess with this right now with Skal playing well.
David West ($3,700): Is there anyone that does more with so little minutes than West? Despite playing under 20 minutes per game, West has topped the 20 DraftKings points mark in each of the last two games. He also did it in the first game against Minnesota. We could even see a little more of West with Jordan Bell out. West is a solid punt, but has no upside at all.
My pick: Lyles(PF), Labissiere(F); Anthony(PF), Labissiere(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($8,900): Towns has been a little too inconsistent for me to spend that much on. Not that Jokic is a lot better in the consistency department, but he lit up the Knicks in the first meeting for 47 DraftKings points. Towns had 36 against the Warriors. Advantage: Jokic. And he’s cheaper!
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400): Whiteside is back up to 30 minutes, and is playing at a high level with those minutes. Whiteside has at least x value in seven of the nine games since his return. He has also gone over 45 three times with two of those over 50 in his last three games. This looks like a great spot to ride Whiteside.
Honorable Mention:
Steven Adams ($6,600): Gortat is still solid defensively, but Adams is playing at such a high level lately that he may be worth using anyway. Adams has averaged 37.3 DraftKings points per game over the last five games. The thing that would worry me a bit here is that most of the rest of the Thunder have good matchups by position here as well. There may not be as much left over for Adams in this one.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,500): Cauley-Stein is still not as consistent as we would like, but it’s easy to forget how young he is. WCS has topped 40 DraftKings points three times in the last seven games. Two of those were at or over 50. There is potential for a huge game here against Whiteside, who is a great rebounder and blocker, but he isn’t that great defensively.
Dark Horses:
Enes Kanter ($6,000): Kanter has been outstanding lately, putting up at least 5x value in nine of the last ten games. One would have expected Kanter to be huge with Porzingis out, but that wasn’t the case. Kanter was his normal consistent self. I wouldn’t expect a big game out of Kanter, but he should absolutely be worth the money.
Kelly Olynyk ($4,600): Olynyk’s production has not been as consistent as it was when Whiteside was out. However, he is not for deployment in just any situation. It has to be a good matchup. This definitely looks like one of those. There could be value here.
My pick: Whiteside(C); Whiteside(C), Cauley-Stein(UTIL)
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