5 big questions for the slumping Cleveland Cavaliers
We have questions about the NBA. Luckily, we also have answers. Some of them might be useful. A few might even turn out to be right. This is Five Big Questions and this week we touch on the slumping Cavaliers.
What is the biggest problem with the Cavaliers right now?
Ben Ladner (@bladner_): Apathy and age. The former is fixable, and likely will be fixed when LeBron kicks it into full-out, Best-Player-in-the-World mode. The latter is concerning and contributing to unbelievably bad defense. Even if they tried, I’m not sure the Cavaliers could stop any team in the playoffs on a consistent basis, which puts them in a dangerous position of having to win shootouts in every game.
Rory Masterson (@rorymasterson): I touched upon this in the Cavaliers’ trade deadline portfolio — which I wrote prior to Cleveland relinquishing 148 points at home in regulation to the Thunder on Saturday — but the defense is absolutely untenable. Part of that certainly has to do with age, being that every rotation player is at least 27-years-old, with several of them on the wrong side of 30. Defense wins championships, but before that, defense prevents you from losing home court advantage, at least for the first round of the playoffs. LeBron can’t always be completely engaged on that end of the court, but showing up before April is just common courtesy.
Trevor Magnotti (@Illegalscreens): Dan Gilbert fired a top-5 GM in the league because he didn’t want to write a check, instead thinking he could do better himself, which ended up with the Cavaliers signing Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon in 2017. We can start there for a lot of the problems plaguing the Cavs since.
Bryan Toporek (@btoporek): Incompatible roster construction. If you’re building a starting five that includes Isaiah Thomas and Kevin Love, your other three starters must be All-World defenders. LeBron James and Jae Crowder each have that potential, but neither has been consistent enough on defense, and J.R. Smith looks like a shell of his former self. With the likes of Kyle Korver, Jose Calderon and Derrick Rose coming off the bench, the Cavaliers don’t have the personnel to field an above-average defense at the moment.
Paul Centopani (@PCentopani): One word: Defense.
Do you think it could actually prevent them from making the NBA Finals for the fourth year in a row?
Ladner: I’d still take Cleveland over the field right now, but only by a hair. Boston and Toronto are as good as or better than any team that has challenged for the Eastern Conference title since probably the 2011 Bulls and might actually have the firepower to compete this year. Still, I’m going to trust LeBron to make it out of the East until I’m wrong.
Masterson: Sooner or later, the Cavaliers’ “kick it into overdrive come playoff time” trick will not pan out as planned, and somebody is going to give them a hard time. I’m not saying they will lose, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics, Raptors or even the (newly Jason Kidd-less) Bucks were able to push a series against Cleveland to six or seven games. Closing the gap in the East will require greater effort from the Cavs in the earlier rounds, meaning that if and when they do get back to the NBA Finals (again, I still expect them to do so), there will be that many more miles on an aging troupe, likely facing a Warriors team that won’t face any major hurdles until at least their own conference finals.
Magnotti: I have been conditioned not to take anything that happens to the Cavaliers in January seriously, but this has always felt like a ticking time bomb. Without David Griffin to smooth things over, a first-time GM that is younger than Richard Jefferson and a legitimate Eastern Conference foe in Toronto, I’m very much not confident that the Cavs can even make the conference finals this year, much less win them.
Toporek: The January swoon has become an annual tradition for Cleveland, but as of now, their path to a fourth straight NBA Finals is more muddled than ever. The Wizards can’t get out of their own way, but the Celtics and Raptors each have the requisite star power, depth and wing defenders to harass LeBron and dethrone the defending Eastern Conference champions. With that said, I’m fully expecting the Cavaliers to overhaul their roster at the trade deadline, which likely will boost them back above the other top challengers in the East.
Centopani: I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. The winter doldrums have hit the Cavaliers seemingly every year. And every year they put it together on their way to the NBA Finals. As long as they have LeBron Raymone James, they’re the favorites to win the East.
Is there one particular trade that can put the Cavaliers at the same level as the Warriors this season?
Ladner: Not a realistic one, no. It would take a top-eight or 10 player to make that much of a difference, and I don’t think any of those guys are going to be available.
Masterson: Love is overrated. Embrace what you hate, LeBron. Hate keeps a man alive.
Magnotti: There might be help that will be valuable against the Warriors, but they can’t hope to beat them if change doesn’t come from within. And blowing up things by trading the Cavs’ second best player for anything (ESPECIALLY LANCE STEPHENSON, RORY) that isn’t an All-Star level player moves the needle further from the goal, not towards it.
Toporek: If the rumored deal involving George Hill for Channing Frye, Iman Shumpert and a second-round pick goes through, that’d help. As would acquiring Dewayne Dedmon on the cheap and/or flipping their own first-round pick for the likes of Lou Williams, Tyreke Evans or Rodney Hood. Acquiring Nikola Mirotic could enable the Cavaliers to dangle Love on the trade block, which might lead to a larger roster shakeup. But no one single trade can cure all that ails them.
Centopani: Funny you should ask. The Step Back is running a series of really smart fake trade ideas and the one on the Cavs came out last week.
Would this put them on the same level as the Warriors? No. But unless Golden State is willing to trade Steph Curry, this one would do wonders in addressing Cleveland’s biggest needs.
What about two trades?
Ladner: If they could somehow swing Paul George and another solid two-way guy (maybe Wes Matthews?), they’d be back in the conversation. Right now, they have three or four switchable wings, but you need more than that to beat the Warriors, and two of the Cavs’ three best players have weaknesses that can be targeted and exploited on a consistent basis over the course of a seven-game series.
Masterson: My aforementioned proposal aside (which, it should be noted, also gets you Darren Collison, no slouch himself), Cleveland can only expect to get one of Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins, and it doesn’t look like either of their respective teams is prepared to sell the farm just yet. The George+Matthews combo is intriguing. The ongoing George Hill rumors are interesting only insofar as what the implications on that would be for a second trade, because Hill isn’t pushing Cleveland over the top against the Warriors on his own. If they nab Hill without sending the Nets pick, and then they package the pick into a deal for DeAndre Jordan… well, anyway, first steps first.
Magnotti: I can’t answer this because I’m still grappling with the moral sewer that is taking the pair of Lance Stephenson and Darren Collison and putting them on a team with Derrick Rose
Toporek: Adding Hill and Dedmon without giving up anyone of consequence would at least put Cleveland back in the driver’s seat in the East, but it still wouldn’t budge the needle against the Warriors. Perhaps acquiring Nikola Mirotic without giving up a first-round pick, then flipping their own first-rounder with Kevin Love for Marc Gasol? That’d give them the stretchy rim protector they desperately need. But so long as Thomas remains hobbled, it feels like they’d need at least three trades to put a scare into the Warriors.
Centopani: The George Hill for Iman Shumpert and Channing Frye rumor has a ton of momentum. Paul George would be the ideal running mate for LeBron and for an eventual showdown with the Warriors. But I’ll be different and go a little outside the box. If MJ wants to shed salary, this trade works:
In the hypothetical world where the Cavs do both of my trades, their top 11 would be LeBron, Kevin Love, Kemba Walker, Wes Matthews, Nerlens Noel, Nic Batum, Marvin Williams, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, Dwyane Wade and Jeff Green. That team wouldn’t be favored against the Warriors, but they’d have a much better shot than they do in the present.
What does all of this mean for LeBron’s future in Cleveland?
Ladner: I think he leaves. Three months ago, I felt pretty strongly that he’d stay, but if things in Cleveland really are as bad as what’s been reported, I don’t see how he sticks around to help turn it around. Even LeBron only has so long to keep competing for titles, and I think he knows he needs to team up with another star (or two) in order to do that.
Masterson: At this point, it shouldn’t matter to LeBron whether he stays or goes. His legacy is solidified in Cleveland — he fulfilled his promise to the city after his time as the prodigal son, and the city slaughtered the fatted calf in celebration, a shirtless J.R. Smith looking on proudly. LeBron probably needs to leave if he is to win more championships, which is his stated remaining goal. If I were Dan Gilbert, I’d ditch the Comic Sans this time, give LeBron a firm handshake and a wink regarding future ownership in the club as a thanks for his service and get to the rebuilding. You’ll always have 2016.
Magnotti: T.A.N.K. for R.J., baby.
Next: 5 big questions for the red hot Minnesota Timberwolves
Toporek: Be honest, Cleveland fans. When LeBron left in 2010, that’s the last time you thought you’d see him in a Cavaliers uniform until he retired. You got an extra four years out of him, including your first championship in franchise history. Don’t be mad at him when he leaves this summer, which he is all but a lock to do. Much like the Heat in 2014, he’ll see an aging, asset-depleted team that has no path toward dethroning the Warriors over the next few years. The question is, where does he go next? (A certain team in Philadelphia would be a nice fit.)
Centopani: If I had to bet my life on it, I think he leaves. Houston? Philly? The Lakers? All three fit as potential destinations. Oh, and he already has a house in L.A.