DraftKings NBA picks January 27: Will Jokic punish Dallas again?

There are seven games on our Saturday, but the Pistons/Thunder tilt at 5pm eastern is left out of the DraftKings tournaments. You know, because they don’t want to offer late swap again. That takes a lot of talent out of the pool. What’s the best of what’s left? Let’s check it out!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($8,400): The top of the point guard list is littered with overpriced options. Wall only has 60 DraftKings points combined in two games against Atlanta this year. Boston has the best defense in the NBA, so I’m not itching to roll a five figure Steph out there. I would rather take my chances with Kyrie against him. Irving has at least 40 DraftKings points in four straight and eight of the last 11 games. He should at least get close to value tonight, which is more than I can say for Wall or Curry.

Kemba Walker ($7,500): Walker draws a tough matchup with the Heat, but he has put up 83.75 DraftKings points in two games with Miami this season. However, Dragic was out for one of those games, so the stats are a bit skewed. So we will just look at the most recent matchup with Miami on January 20^th. Walker still picked up 42.25 DraftKings points. That makes him a great value tonight. Maybe even better than Irving.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($6,900): Murray continued his hot week with another solid game against the Knicks on Thursday. However, Murray’s price has risen to the point where he is no longer an automatic value anymore. That said, I still like him tonight against a Dallas team that has struggled defending the point all year. With Murray’s price in this range though, you should expect around 6x value instead of 7 or 8x.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,300): Smith picked up 65.25 DraftKings points in the first two games against Denver this season. Prior to the Houston game, Smith had been trucking right along. I think he gets back on track with a nice matchup here. Prior to the Houston game, Smith had only been under 5x value once in the last 11 games, and he was just barely under. I like his potential tonight if you are put off by Murray’s price.

Dark Horses:

Darren Collison ($5,900): This is another gift matchup for Collison. Orlando still hasn’t quite figured out how to stop the guy with the ball. Since Collison is the guy with the ball, he has a very nice matchup here. Keep in mind that Collison isn’t a guy that is going to have a monster night, but he could flirt with 40 DraftKings points here.

Yogi Ferrell ($4,600): Ferrell played so well with Dennis Smith and J.J. Barea out that he seems to have passed Barea in the pecking order. Ferrell has played 29 or more minutes in each of his last seven games, and has at least 6x value in all but one of those games. Even with Dallas at full strength, it seems they will keep running Farrell until he cools off. It may not be a bad idea for us to do the same.

My pick: Smith(PG), Collison(G); Walker(PG), Ferrell(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Victor Oladipo ($9,400): Most of the time I am here telling you how hard it will be to pay up for Oladipo. This is not one of those cases. Oladipo has destroyed the team that drafted him this year. In two meetings, Oladipo already has 118.25 DraftKings points. I will venture to say that Oladipo will be one of the highest scorers on our truncated Saturday slate. He is well worth the money today.

Jimmy Butler ($9,200): It’s the same thing as it has been the last few days. If Butler is in the lineup, use him. If not, Bjelica becomes a chalk value play. Of course, the problem here is that we likely wont have news by the time the lineups lock. Butler had 44.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Brooklyn. If we have news that Butler is active with no restrictions, I’m going to try to figure out how to fit him and Oladipo in the same lineup without having the value of Bjelica to fall back on.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($8,100): Beal lit up the Thunder in a mostly quiet game for John Wall. Wall has struggled against Atlanta this year, so it would make sense that Beal has fared better against the Hawks. Beal has 78.5 DraftKings points in the two games with Atlanta so far. That would put him a touch under value, but as we have seen, if Oladipo gets hot, he can put up some big numbers. There is potential here.

Gary Harris ($6,500): Harris has proven himself as a proficient scorer, but he doesn’t bring much else to the table. At first glance, this matchup with Dallas does not look like a very good one. However, Harris has 79.75 DraftKings points over two games with Dallas so far. That puts him right at 6x value.

Josh Richardson ($6,200): For DFS purposes, Richardson is boring. He is always within about 27-34 DraftKings points. Very rarely is he anywhere outside of that. For this reason, I do prefer Richardson in cash games, but there is nothing wrong with a little consistency in a GPP lineup. Especially when he’s matched up with a Charlotte team that doesn’t defend well. There’s some upside for you!

Dark Horses:

Lance Stephenson ($4,700): Stephenson no longer has a starting job, but he constantly puts up 5-6x value in his 24 minutes off the bench. Stephenson racked up 62.5 DraftKings points in the two earlier games against Orlando this season. Orlando’s defense isn’t really all that good anywhere, so Stephenson at this price looks like a pretty good idea.

Marco Belinelli ($3,500): Jamal Crawford’s two big games with Butler out have priced him out of value range. With Butler back, there is no way that Crawford is going to approach those totals again. Belinelli is a safe option considering that he has 51.75 DraftKings points in two games against Washington this year. That puts Belinelli comfortably at 7x value!

My pick: Oladipo(SG); Harris(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Evan Fournier ($6,300): There are all sorts of terrible options at the top of the small forward heap tonight. KD is questionable, but he only had 37.5 DraftKings points against Boston in the first meeting anyway. Wiggins is a solid option if Butler was out, but when Butler is in the lineup, there is a sharp drop in production for Wiggins. Otto Porter? No thanks. He is more inconsistent than Gordon and he has little upside. That leaves us with another boring option in Fournier. He is getting to the point where hit tops 30 DraftKings points fairly often, but he is still far from a sure thing.

Honorable Mention:

Jaylen Brown ($5,700): Brown could be a sneaky option here tonight. First off, he picked up 40.25 DraftKings points on the Warriors in the first meeting. Second, Marcus Smart is out for a while, so that could lead to more minutes for Brown. Brown has a solid floor, and some clear upside here tonight.

Thaddeus Young ($5,700): Young struggled a bit against the revamped Cavs last night, but I still like his matchup with Orlando here. I don’t know that I would go as far as to stack Pacers here, but all of them have good matchups. Young is a solid pairing to Oladipo to try and save some money.

James Johnson ($5,400): Johnson has not exactly played well since his return, but he has had to tangle with some pretty good teams up front. The exception was Charlotte, whom he torched for 39 DraftKings points a week ago. Johnson is pretty much a must play for me against the Hornets today.

Dark Horses:

Marcus Morris ($4,800): Morris continues to put up solid numbers off the bench, and he could see even more run with Marcus Smart sidelined. Morris has at least 20 DraftKings points in six straight games. The Warriors may give him some issues, but I would bet that he breaks 20 again and at least gets close to 5x value.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,400): Bogdanovic now has four straight games of at least 5x value, and he gets to take on an Orlando team that he has 67 DraftKings points against in two games so far. Bogdanovic is another strong value play. I fully expect at least two of these value plays to score near the high priced options at the position tonight.

My pick: Johnson(SF); Brown(SF), Johnson(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Draymond Green ($7,700): I prefer Draymond over Aaron Gordon for a few reasons and consistency is one of them. Their totals against tonight’s opponents are pretty close, but Green’s matchup is still better. Boston’s troubles against power forwards is well documented, but that is mostly due to allowing a lot of points. Draymond isn’t much of a scorer, so that is kind of a wash. However, if Durant ends up sitting, Draymond is one of the guys I definitely want.

Harrison Barnes ($6,100): The recent struggles against Houston and Portland helped drop his price, but Barnes has done well against Denver so far this year. He has 70.5 DraftKings points in two meetings against the Nuggets. In fact, Barnes did better when Millsap was in there than he did back on January 16^th. However, Barnes still hit value for his price in that game. Barnes remains a solid option at another thin position.

Honorable Mention:

Markieff Morris ($5,300): Morris picked up 55.5 DraftKings points over the first two games with Atlanta this season. He has picked up his game lately, putting together two 30+ DraftKings point games together in the last three games. The one that he missed was against Dallas in a game where he struggled from the field. I see Morris playing good minutes again, so he should end up well above 5x value. It could be a night to stack the Morris brothers!

Trey Lyles ($5,300): Lyles continues to be solid with Paul Millsap out. However, he was limited to just 15 minutes in the last game against Dallas, so there is some risk to throwing Lyles out there tonight. He has performed well since that game against Dallas, putting up at least 5x value in three of the four games.

Dark Horses:

Wilson Chandler ($4,400): The Nuggets decided to go smaller against Dallas, so Chandler got more run than Plumlee or Lyles. Chandler responded with 22 DraftKings points in that game, or right at 5x value. Chandler has very limited upside, as does anyone not named Jokic or Harris in a Mike Malone rotation. Hell, Faried destroyed Dallas for well over 30 DraftKings points earlier this year, but didn’t play a minute on January 16^th. Chandler seems to be the safest bet of the Denver frontcourt, but they are all kind of risky.

Quincy Acy ($3,300): RHJ left last night with a groin strain, so that will most likely open up some minutes for Acy up front in the short term. This is a tough matchup against the Timberwolves, who have defended the four well ths year, but Acy should easily hit value at this price.

My pick: Barnes(PF), Chandler(F); Acy(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($8,900): The inconsistency of Towns, even with Butler out, makes it difficult for me to justify spending on him tonight. I would much rather spend on Jokic who ravaged Dallas for 67 DraftKings points 11 days ago. Jokic may be the best play of the night considering the Mavericks have no one capable of containing Jokic in the middle.

Dwight Howard ($8,000): Howard continues to put up numbers that would have looked good in his stat line ten years ago. You know, before the failed Lakers drama and his sojourn to Houston that didn’t work out. I wouldn’t rule out Howard dominating anyone right now. There is enough value to stack both Jokic and Howard, and I am seriously considering building my lineup like that.

Honorable Mention:

Bismack Biyombo ($6,300): I know, the honeymooon is over for Bismack, but the Pacers are the worst team in the league defending the center even with Myles Turner. They are worse without him. This is a great place to put Biyombo back out there. I don’t think Biyombo puts up numbers like he did when Vucevic first went down, but 5x value is certainly possible.

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,500): Dedmon is still splitting minutes with all of the other Hawks bigs, but he has the most potential. Dedmon has two double-doubles in the last five games, and missed another by one rebound. There is potential here against Washington. Dedmon had 22.5 DraftKings points against them in the first meeting.

Dark Horses:

Daniel Theis ($3,900): Theis is athletic enough to have a good game against the Warriors. The Celtics are still playing him around 20 minutes per game, which gives Theis plenty of time to hit value. However, his upside is capped since he hasn’t played more than half the game any time this season.

Jarrett Allen ($3,600): Allen posted his first career double-double in just 23 minutes against the Thunder on Tuesday. He followed that up with another 25 DraftKings points in 20 minutes last night. Allen’s stock is definitely trending up as the rookie continues to steal away more time from Okafor and Zeller up front. Allen looks like a superb value play tonight.

My pick: Jokic(C), Allen(UTIL); Jokic(C), Howard(UTIL)

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