Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Friday Night’s NBA DFS slate was predictably high scoring as we had nine players put up 50 or more fantasy points including the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo who went for a slate leading 78.25 fantasy points against the Brooklyn Nets.
The big news on the night was DeMarcus Cousins who put up a triple double before injuring his Achilles that will have him out for the next 6-10 MONTHS. Get well soon Boogie and get ready for all the Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday usage you can handle in DFS! Expect some big time price hikes on these guys next time they are on an NBA DFS slate!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
Let’s start with the lead narrative here as Victor Oladipo ($17.5K and $9.9K on FanDuel) gets a third crack at his former Orlando Magic team in a revenge spot he has absolutely crushed in two previous meetings, putting up 74 and 54 fantasy points in those two outings. Put the revenge narrative aside for a second and just look at the match-up – the Magic rank 29th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff as a team and rank 28th and 29th in Def-Eff guarding opposing back courts.
This is an obvious great spot for Dipo but keep in mind they are playing on the tail end of a back to back against the Cavaliers last night and this will be three games in four nights for Indiana. Oladipo has logged heavy minutes, playing 38 and 32 minutes in these last two games so there is risk here for a player I expect will be heavily owned due to the DFS narrative love. On FantasyDraft, Oladipo would need to get 54 fantasy points (his “floor” game in the previous two match-ups) just to hit value and at nearly $10K on FanDuel there is merit to fading a guy who has only hit 50 fantasy points one time in the month of January. I love narratives as much as anyone but this may be a spot to let the masses chase the story and we play the smart pivot!
Jimmy Butler continues to be the injury news we are waiting on as he has now missed four straight games for Minnesota and remains questionable for tonight’s home match-up versus Brooklyn. Assuming Butler sits we could go right back to Nemanja Bjelica ($8.8K) who is averaging just under 27 fantasy points per game in his previous four starts for the injured Timberwolves star.
The Nets side of this game is really where I want to watch for some news as we could see a potentially short-handed Brooklyn squad tonight. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson left last night’s game due to a groin injury and although Coach Atkinson thinks this is more of a day-to-day kind of injury, it would not be surprising to see him sit tonight which could open up some sneaky value with Quincy Acy ($6.4K) and/or Jarrett Allen ($6.7K) being asked to log heavy minutes in an effort to slow down the Minnesota big men!
Atkinson on if he was afraid Rondae Hollis-Jefferson's injury was long-term: "No. We’ll evaluate it more...We’ll know more tomorrow but hopefully nothing serious." #Nets
— Brian Lewis (@NYPost_Lewis) January 27, 2018
The other spot to watch here would be D’Angelo Russell who played 21 minutes last night against the Bucks, the most court time he has seen since his return from injury and it would not be shocking at all to see him rest here on a back to back. If you take both D-Russ AND RHJ off the court, a player like DeMarre Carroll ($11K) becomes an interesting mid-range choice as he sees a 2.5% usage boost and puts up a FP/M with both players off the floor. If Russell sits it would also open the door for Caris LeVert ($9.5K) to see back-up point guard run which is a role we have seen him excel in already this season when Russell was out. Keep an eye on this news throughout the day as this game could become a prime value spot if things break right!
NBA DFS – Game Stack of the Night:
The marquee game of the night is the 8:30PM EST nationally televised Warriors and Celtics game which is chock full of stars to build around! As you all know, this article is written as a First Look, done at 6AM EST so there are many things that unfold during an NBA DFS day that change our outlook and I think there is going to be some significant news in this game that completely changes the slate. Hear me out here – we already know Marcus Smart is out with an injury and Al Horford has been cleared to play so there is nothing on the Celtics side we are waiting on and the only “news” we have on the Warriors side is that Kevin Durant is probable with a sore left foot.
So if a KD probable designation is all we are waiting on, why is there no line or Vegas information out for this game? This is pure speculation on my part but it is absolutely something we need to watch as if KD is ruled out, it puts the remaining Big Three of Golden State into near must play territory.
Injury report for tomorrow's game vs. Boston: Kevin Durant (left foot soreness) is probable; Patrick McCaw (mid back strain) is questionable; Jordan Bell (left ankle inflammation) is out.
— Warriors PR (@WarriorsPR) January 26, 2018
These two teams played earlier this season in an underwhelming DFS affair that ended 92-88 and only Jaylen Brown finished with 40 or more fantasy points despite the plethora of stars available. The Celtics continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking first in Defensive Rating as a team over the last seven games but it is interesting to note that over that same time period the Celtics rank 5th in pace of play while the Warriors rank 6th so there is potential for more offensive fireworks here than the first time they met.
This game has the fastest projected pace and with it being in Golden State we normally side with the home team determining the pace of play which would clearly suit Golden State as they play at the fastest pace of any team on this slate so far this season.
If Kevin Durant is ruled out (and with it being a national TV game I would expect that news early), then we simply lock in Stephen Curry ($19.4K), Draymond Green ($14.4K) and Klay Thompson ($11.8K) and move on! The fact that Boston will be without Marcus Smart as well takes away their best back-court defender which gives an even further boost to the Warriors Splash Brothers!
The Celtics players see the biggest pace boost of any team in action tonight and after a string of recent fast paced match-ups against the Lakers, Sixers, Pelicans and Magic we have a good idea of who gets the benefit in similar spots.
Kyrie Irving ($14.9K) has really stepped up his game over the last few games, putting up 47 fantasy points per game over his last four outings while launching 20 or more shot attempts in five of his last six games. Al Horford ($13.3K) is the kind of athletic big man who can stick with the Warriors fast paced attack and we saw him play 35 minutes in their first meeting while racking up 18 points and 11 rebounds on his way to 30 fantasy points!
Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are in play in FanDuel at $5k price points if you are looking to game stack as they will be locked into major minutes with the injury to Smart and should be solid bets for 25-30 fantasy points. Terry Rozier at only $3.8K is a great salary saver option as we saw the kind of upside he has last game with Smart out when he played 23 minutes off the bench and racked up 30.6 fantasy points – if you are looking for a pure punt on FanDuel he is your man!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Stephen Curry ($9,500)
PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,700)
SG: Klay Thompson ($6,600)
SG: Caris LeVert ($4,800)
SF: Jaylen Brown ($5,300)
SF: DeMarre Carroll ($5,600)
PF: Draymond Green ($7,700)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($5,000)
C: Al Horford ($6,700)
Slate Overview: The more I look at this slate the more I realize how easy it is to game stack this Boston/Golden State game and if Kevin Durant ultimately is ruled out, I see no reason to pivot off this kind of build. The Nets are the team I really want to wait on as if RHJ and D-Russ are out tonight it could open up some nice value against a Minnesota team that may be without their best defender again in JImmy Butler. Outside of these two games, most of the other spots tonight are neutral pace spots with middle of the road totals so there is no “must have” pivot spot that really makes me want to move away from the marquee NBA contest of the evening!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!