Fantasy baseball 2018: Curse of the No. 1 prospect
By Gavin Tramps
Prospect evaluators love lists, and the player sitting at the top of the list is destined for stardom in real life and fantasy. Isn’t he?
MLB Pipeline revealed their top-100 prospects for 2018, with the top spot a two-player battle between the Braves’ Ronald Acuna and two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. The Japanese superstar is the overall top prospect but both players are sure things. Surely, neither will fall under the curse that affects many of MLB’s No.1 prospects.
Acuna produced a historic season in the minors, slashing .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across three levels. Just in case the hysteria over Acuna’s potential was not high enough, he hit a league-leading seven home runs to clinch the MVP award of the Arizona Fall League. And this was all before his 20th birthday.
Even if the outfielder fails to break camp with the Braves, he is likely to be tormenting Major League opponents before the end of April. Without a doubt, he needs to be owned in every fantasy league, regardless of size or format.
Ohtani was the best player outside MLB and is single-handedly rewriting the rules of fantasy baseball with the potential of elite-level hitting and pitching.
As a pitcher, Ohtani holds the record for the fastest pitch in Japan (103.5 mph) and posted 1.86 ERA with 11.20 SO/9 and 0.96 WHIP over 20 starts in 2016, He was restricted to just 25 innings last season but is expected to be a vital part of the Angels’ six-man rotation.
The 23-year-old will get most of his at-bats as the Angels’ designated hitter, although he could get some reps at first base or outfield. Over the last two seasons (525 at-bats), Ohtani hit 30 home runs with 98 RBI, 34 doubles and .328 batting average. Just as a hitter, he is a fantasy stud that everyone should try to own.
Both players are can’t miss, bonafide fantasy superstar prospects. But isn’t that what we thought about every previous No.1 prospect?
Delmon Young
MLB had an obsession with the former first overall pick from the 2003 draft, ranking him as their top prospect for three straight years from 2005-2007. After 1,118 games in the majors, Young retired with a negative 1.8 WAR. The curse of the No.1 prospect had started.
Jay Bruce
The 2008 top prospect hit a career-high 36 home runs with 101 RBI in 2017 and has just signed a three year deal with the Mets. The career .249 hitter has a 108 wRC+, meaning that over his 10 years in the majors, Bruce has only been 8% better than league average. And in six of those seasons, he did not even give average production.
In securing the top spot, Bruce was ranked ahead of Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Max Scherzer and Andrew McCutchen, although perhaps the biggest swing and miss by the evaluators was to rank Clayton Kershaw fourth.
David Price
The Rays took the left-hander with the first overall pick in the 2007 draft, and he was a good choice as MLB’s top prospect in 2009. Price has secured 127 wins, and despite a disappointing 2017, he has been an All-Star-caliber starter for every one of his full seasons in the majors. The 32-year-old is an intriguing pick in fantasy this season. With an ADP of 125, he could be a steal if he can make 30 healthy starts for the Red Sox.
Jason Heyward
It was hard to argue with the first-rounder (14th pick overall) from the 2007 draft, ranking top of MLB’s prospect list in 2010. The left-hander finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2010 after posting 131 OPS+. Unfortunately, that season represents a career-high for the Cubs’ outfielder. With an ADP in the 400s, Heyward has little fantasy appeal despite the likelihood of 500 plate appearances for one of the most competitive teams.
Mike Trout
MLB ranked the center fielder as their top prospect in 2011. He has been a top-5 player in every single season since 2012, amassing over 1,000 hits, 200 home runs, 200 doubles, a .306 batting average and .976 OPS. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, although every No.1 hitting prospect since has been compared to him.
Matt Moore
As a minor leaguer, the left-hander had a strikeout rate of 12.5 SO/9 with 2.74 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He was a controversial yet understandable choice as MLB’s top prospect in 2012, but the curse struck again. The 29-year-old has tossed 782⅔ innings in the majors with less than a strikeout per inning, an ERA over 4.25 and a WHIP approaching 1.40. The players in the top-3 that MLB ranked below Moore in 2012 were Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
Jurickson Profar
The curse continued in 2013 when Curacao native ranked as MLB’s No.1 prospect. He missed the 2014 and 2015 seasons with a shoulder injury and has a .638 OPS across 200 games in the majors. The switch-hitter is projected for less than 100 at-bats for the Rangers this season and has limited fantasy value in the deepest of leagues.
Byron Buxton
MLB prospect evaluators love outfielders with five tools. As a 19-year-old, Buxton was regarded as one of the best minor leaguers some scouts had ever seen, and others noted that the similarities between Buxton and Mike Trout were eerily similar. The Twins’ outfielder was the darling of every dynasty league and topped the MLB prospect lists in 2014 and 2015.
Although 2017 was the best season of his MLB career, Buxton has yet to produce an above-average campaign. In case you’re wondering who finished behind Buxton in 2015, it was Carlos Correa (2nd), Kris Bryant (3rd) and Francisco Lindor (4th). The curse continued.
Corey Seager
The Dodgers’ shortstop has been everything a fantasy owner wants from the No.1 prospect. In 329 MLB games, the former first-rounder has slashed .305/.374/.502 with 52 home runs, 207 runs and 166 RBI.
He is projected to hit .289 with 24 home runs, batting second in the Dodgers’ lineup ahead of the powerful trio of Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Yasiel Puig.
There is a wealth of top-end talent at shortstop to draft in fantasy leagues this season, with Seager making up an elite quartet with Trea Turner (ADP 5), Carlos Correa (ADP 14) and Francisco Lindor (ADP 21). Seager represents excellent value on draft day if you can get him at his current ADP of 38.
Andrew Benintendi
The Red Sox’ outfielder was the No.1 prospect last season and transitioned from the minors to majors with ease. Although the 23-year-old was pipped to the AL Rookie of the Year Award by the Herculean season from Aaron Judge, Benintendi was fantasy gold with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. The elusive 20/20 was only achieved by nine players last season, including Mike Trout and Jose Altuve.
He exhibited a mature approach at the plate with a 10% walk rate and 17% strikeout rate, which coupled with his low BABIP and below-average HR/FB rate, suggest that 2018 could be even better for the former first-round pick.
Perhaps the curse of the MLB No.1 prospect has been lifted.
Hours of evaluation and research from respected experts go into deciding which player to appoint as the No.1 prospect in the game. The accolade will give the player extra-value in all dynasty and keeper leagues and will almost inevitably result in him being overdrafted in single-season formats.
Before you get too carried away with enthusiasm over this year’s top prospect, remember two things. First, there is only one Mike Trout. He is a once-in-a-lifetime talent. Second, for every Corey Seager or Andrew Benintendi, there is a Jurickson Profar or Delmon Young.