The short and long-term impact of DeMarcus Cousins’ injury

If you somehow missed the news, DeMarcus Cousins suffered what has to be the worst high-profile injury of the season on Friday, when he tore his left Achilles tendon late in the New Orleans Pelicans’ win over the Houston Rockets.

Both the immediate and long-term impact of Cousins’ injury could be huge for New Orleans and the rest of the league. The Pelicans, just about a year removed from trading for Cousins, had started to turn the corner in the six weeks leading up to his season-ending injury — they were sixth in offense and eighth in defense over those 20 games, culminating in a fantastic performance against the Rockets on Friday. A lot of that progress will be halted, though not completely lost.

The team will surely change, as we saw in their first post-Boogie game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers. Anthony Davis will be called upon to play more center in Cousins’ absence because the Pelicans lack depth at the big man positions. Alexis Ajinca is already out for the season with a torn patellar tendon, leaving just Omer Asik behind Davis at the center position. Asik played only seven minutes against the Clippers, though he was more than serviceable in those minutes to the surprise of many who thought he was essentially done as a rotation-level player. With a few more good performances, Asik may find his way into playing 15-20 minutes per game for the Pelicans, at least during the regular season. Davis doesn’t like the physical toll that comes with playing center and New Orleans certainly doesn’t want to wear him down with a lot of regular season minutes there.

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The Pelicans have always lacked wings in the Davis era and their depth there will be tested as never before. Dante Cunningham stepped into the starting lineup against the Clippers and played 28 minutes. Darius Miller, Ian Clark and DeAndre Liggins also saw significant time in that game. The signings of Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson will help the Pelicans deal with the Cousins injury as well, as Jrue Holiday has played more off the ball this year than in previous seasons. Solomon Hill is another part of the equations for New Orleans — he’s slated to return from his torn hamstring next month, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be after being sidelined for so long.

While the short-term changes will be fascinating, the long-term implications of Cousins’ injury could change the future of the Pelicans franchise for years to come. Cousins will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and was absolutely in line for a five-year, $175.74 million contract from New Orleans, but where the Pelicans and other teams value him now will be one of the most interesting stories of free agency this July.

The track record for big men coming off Achilles injuries isn’t great, but more advanced methods are pushing recovery times shorter and shorter, as we’ve seen recently with Rudy Gay and Wesley Matthews. However, both of those players are wings, who typically fare better in Achilles recoveries than big men. It’s impossible to say how large a part his recovery will play in his free agency this summer since the Pelicans have to weigh that against other factors, namely the fact that they’ll have no way to replace Cousins if they low-ball him and he walks to another team. After giving Holiday a massive contract last summer, the Pelicans are capped out this summer, something that wasn’t supposed to be an issue but now looms large.

One advantage for Cousins is that his game isn’t as reliant on athleticism as some of his fellow big men at the top of the league’s food chain. Where players like DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela are effective largely through their superior quickness and jumping ability, Cousins’ game is both more refined and more brutish — he’s far more skilled than almost all of his counterparts but also will put them through the basket stanchion if they stand in his way for too long.

Few players in NBA history have combined his raw strength and technical ability, and neither of those things are going to disappear as a result of this injury. He’ll still be able to space the floor to the 3-point line, handle the ball and pass. The 5-4 pick-and-rolls New Orleans frequently employed this season will still be there. (Boogie leads the league in pick-and-roll possessions as the ball handler among big men. He ran 108 of them before getting injured, and the next closest was Al Horford with 18).

On the other hand, Cousins will be impacted in some ways physically, as expected. He’s always been a good rebounder, but his prowess in that area may be slightly muted upon his return. Plays like these will probably happen less frequently:

However, rebounds like this won’t be going anywhere:

Similarly, his rim protection may suffer in a small way. He’s been slightly below average in that department this season and although he’s put up good block numbers for the fifth consecutive seasons, some of his more athletic plays will fall by the wayside:

In the above clip, Cousins rotates over from the weak side and hangs in the air with Tyreke Evans before eventually stuffing the ball back to the floor. His vertical leap will take a hit and these plays will be less frequent, though he’ll still get plenty of blocks based on his insane hand quickness, which is almost unparalleled among big men:

Four different times in the Pelicans’ recent game against the Charlotte Hornets, Dwight Howard tried to go up against Cousins, only to have the ball taken from his hands before he could bring it above his head. Cousins is fantastic at getting his hands on shots before they even turn into shots in the first place, and Howard learned that the hard way last week. Once again, this skill won’t deteriorate as a result of his Achilles injury and should remain a part of his game.

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Cousins’ injury throws a major wrench into what had been a successful season for both the Pelicans as an organization and Cousins individually. New Orleans’ focus shifts from upgrading their team around Davis and Cousins at this year’s trade deadline to the summer, where they’ll need to balance their pursuit of Cousins’ signature with how much to pay him in light of his injury. Will a less-than-max offer offend him to the point of no return? Will other teams with cap space (the Mavericks or the Lakers) come in hard for him despite the injury? Will the Pelicans’ ownership sign off on the max for a soon-to-be-28-year-old big man with a major Achilles injury?

All these questions will have to be answered in the first few days of July and will certainly have a major impact on the Pelicans future.