DraftKings NBA picks January 29: Can Butler outscore Giannis?

There are six games on our Monday night, which is kind of light to start the week. It is also a little lighter on talent as well. Only one player tops the five digit threshold for price, and he has a tough matchup. Should we take him anyway, or should we build with a couple of the six players that top the $9,000 mark? Let’s break this down!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($8,800): Irving put up 51.25 DraftKings points in only 32 minutes in the first meeting with Denver. Irving’s price has risen on the heels of five straight games with 40 or more DraftKings points. Irving is carrying as much of the load as he can for Boston right now. If this game gets out of hand, Boston may rest Irving early, but I’m willing to bet that Irving will also be the one that makes it that way. He is a strong play in a slate that is mostly devoid of star power.

Tyreke Evans ($8,200): Evans went through a whole practice yesterday, so it would appear likely that he plays today. Hopefully he does because the Suns’ guard situation is kind of a mess right now. Evans put up 43.5 DraftKings points on the Suns in the first meeting. You can bet on at least 5x value again as long as there are no limitations for Evans tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Schroder ($7,200): Schroder is hard to rely on sometimes because he is not the most consistent guy around. He has failed to hit value in four of the last five games. Some of that likely has to do with the team around him. Some of it is just his youth in action. However, Schroder has a big opportunity against a Minnesota team that does not defend the point well and hasn’t all season. There is risk here, but the reward is enough to take it.

Jamal Murray ($6,600): Murray has a terrible matchup on paper, but in the first meeting against Boston, he torched the best defense in the league. Murray racked up 55.25 DraftKings points in that game, posting 28 points and 11 rebounds. Now, it’s too much to expect another great performance like that, but it is possible that Murray hits around 6x value here.

Dark Horses:

Yogi Ferrell ($4,900): Ferrell put up 34.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Heat. The second year guy has played so well that he has taken a chunk out of Barea’s minutes. A significant enough chunk that Ferrell is a great value off of the Dallas bench now. He has taken over that spot from Barea.

T.J. McConnell ($4,500): With Redick still out, McConnell and Luwawu-Cabarrot will see most of the run in his stead. When McConnell gets consistent minutes, the production has been there. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he is a solid play for value seekers.

My pick: Murray(PG), McConnell(UTIL); Irving(PG), Ferrell(SG), Murray(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($9,400): Butler was a little rusty from the field on Saturday after a ten day absence, but his all around game still yielded solid DFS numbers. Atlanta has the worst shooting guard defense in the league, so if Butler hits even 40% of his shots, he could be in for a big night. Butler has some of the highest upside on the slate tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($9,300): Oladipo has three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points, so even if he misses value, it isn’t by much. This is a good matchup against Charlotte, but Oladipo still doesn’t do much more than score. You aren’t going to see double-doubles out of here. For that reason, Oladipo still carries a healthy amount of risk.

Honorable Mention:

Devin Booker ($8,700): Booker gets to take on the the second worst shooting guard defense on this slate, but if he ends up with Evans on him, I don’t like this matchup. Booker has been running the point in the latest lineup shakeup for the Suns, and it went very well against Houston. Keep an eye on the starting lineups. If Booker winds up with Evans on him, I want no part of this.

Gary Harris ($6,100): It wasn’t just Murray that lit up the Celtics in the first meeting. Harris did as well. Harris walked away from that game with 52.75 DraftKings points. Again, I don’t see Harris dropping 36 on Boston again, but at this price, 6x value is a very real possibility.

Jaylen Brown ($5,500): Brown was a scorching 9-12 from the field in the first meeting with Denver, putting up 41.75 DraftKings points. Brown has not done a whole lot in the absence of Marcus Smart, but there is definitely some potential here with Smart out of the picture. You just have to be willing to deal with a 20 if that’s all Brown comes up with.

Dark Horses:

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4,200): TLC continues to play well over 30 minutes per game with Redick out. He doesn’t always hit value, but with his price point this low, the potential is that much higher. He is never going to have a monster night, but we have seen a few sporadic 30’s with this amount of playing time.

Jamal Crawford ($3,800): Crawford continues to be a long range sharpshooter off the bench. He performed well with Butler out, but his minutes went down a bit with Butler’s return. It’s nothing to worry about really. Crawford is still going to get his chances, but there are just fewer to go around now.

My pick: Butler(SG); N/A

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Andrew Wiggins ($6,500): Wiggins stepped up big with Butler out, and his production carried over a little with Butler’s first game back. I don’t expect Wiggins to be as big of a part of this as he was early in the season, but he was putting up a consistent 5x value even before Butler went down. This team is starting to come together, and Wiggins has figured out how to be productive in his new role. I trust him far more than Simmons against Milwaukee or Middleton with Giannis back.

Robert Covington ($5,900): Covington put up 34.75 DraftKings points in only 29 minutes in the first meeting with Milwaukee. Of course, we don’t really know how the coaching change is going to ultimately affect the Bucks, but the returns are good so far. Still, Covington has the ability to produce a good night at this price point.

Honorable Mention:

Thaddeus Young ($5,700): Young gets to take on another softer defense in the form of Charlotte. He has put up at least 6x value in five of the last seven games. This is another great situation for Young. He looks like a very nice value play tonight.

Trey Lyles ($5,100): Lyles continues to have a high floor, but a low ceiling. He has done a great job in lieu of Millsap, but without significant upside, Lyles is best left for cash games. However, Boston has struggled against forwards for much of the season, so there is potential here. At worst, I see him hitting value.

Dark Horses:

Lance Stephenson ($4,700): For some reason, the Pacers are bringing Stephenson off of the bench recently. He has done a lot with those bench minutes recently. Whether that leads to him starting again or to more minutes remains to be seen, but I am a big fan of Stephenson at this price. Outside of Oladipo, Stephenson is the most consistent scoring option. That warrants usage against a soft Charlotte D.

Dillon Brooks ($4,300): Brooks continues to see big minutes for Memphis, but the production isn’t always there. However, against Phoenix, Brooks is worth a look. He has constantly been around 20 DraftKings points per game, which makes him a pretty low risk option.

My pick: Young(SF), Stephenson(G); Covington(SF), Stephenson(F), Lyles(UTIL)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000): The highest priced player on the slate at least deserves a mention. This is a tough matchup against the Sixers, but Giannis has returned to form over the last five games. He is the only one that can consistently hit 50 DraftKings points on this slate. If you buy stock in Giannis, you are getting at least a 50 spot, even against a tougher defense.

Dario Saric ($6,800): Saric can stretch the floor because of his ability to hit outside shots. He only had 32 DraftKings points in the first game against the Bucks, but Saric is capable of big games because of his elite shooting.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($6,100): Sabonis continues to throw up 30 DraftKings points almost like clockwork. He has hit at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. He has been over 30 in six of those. Expect another solid, yet unspectacular game against Charlotte tonight.

Kelly Olynyk ($5,200): If you are searching in the middle tier of power forward there are a lot of risky options. Olynyk is also one of those, but he has a good matchup with Dallas and he hits value more often than Gibson or Harrison Barnes.

Dark Horses:

Jarell Martin ($4,800): Martin has put up 73.5 DraftKings points over the last three games with JaMychal Green out. Martin doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he is a solid value play at this price point. We have yet to see a big game out of Martin, so he is probably better suited for cash games.

Marquese Chriss ($4,600): There is a lot of potential for Chriss here against a shallow Memphis frontcourt. However, it has been a while since he has played a full compliment of minutes. With Alex Len out though, Chriss should have as many minutes as he can handle. However, the Suns are in no hurry to up his minutes unless they have to.

My pick: Sabonis(PF); Sabonis(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,800): The Sixers said that Embiid would be ready for back to back games by the end of January. We will see if they keep their word. Embiid played 36 minutes last night in another strong performance. If Embiid is in there tonight playing a full compliment of minutes, he could have a huge night against a small Bucks frontcourt. Just keep an eye on his status until tipoff.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): Towns has gotten back on track lately with 103 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has another strong matchup against Atlanta tonight, but so does the rest of the team. I’m not sure how many Timberwolves I trust here. I’m not an advocate of a stack due to the blowout potential, but Butler and Towns appear to be safe.

Honorable Mention:

Dwight Howard ($9,100): Howard has been outstanding lately. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games. Five of those have been over 50, including the last three games. It doesn’t really matter who Howard has played against lately. He is a double-double machine and the only player besides Drummond who is a legit 20/20 threat.

Hassan Whiteside ($7,700): Dallas doesn’t have anyone in the middle that can deal with the size of Whiteside. Whiteside has struggled against big centers, but you wont have to worry about that here. Don’t worry about Whiteside being dominated by Howard. That isn’t going to happen tonight.

Dark Horses:

Aron Baynes ($3,900): Baynes did well in the first meeting with Denver, but his production has been anything but consistent lately. Or all season, for that matter. Daniel Theis is the safer pick, and he is taking more of Baynes’ minutes than in the first meeting. Baynes is nothing more than a dart throw because this is a pretty good matchup for him, but Theis is a bit safer play.

Bam Adebayo ($3,800): Adebayo has been getting consistent minutes off the bench, and has been doing quite a bit with them. Adebayo put up 33 DraftKings points on Dallas in the first meeting. He can also play the four, which should given him 25 minutes. He can get close to 8x value with that kind of floor time with this good of a matchup.

My pick: Howard(C), Adebayo(F); Whiteside(C)

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