Denver’s investment in Jamal Murray is paying off

Nothing tests the resolve of a young point guard like handing him the keys to a top-five offense without a safety net. When the Nuggets waived Jameer Nelson at the start of the season, they threw Jamal Murray into the fire in just his second year in the NBA, demanding consistent production for the team to survive. Placing that type of pressure on him has forced him — and, by extension, the team — to either sink or swim, an investment that hasn’t been without its challenges. But gradually, he’s adjusted, and we’re seeing the player Denver was so loath to trade this summer.

He’s still learning the ropes, but at age 20, Murray looks the part of an NBA point guard — albeit an untraditional one — displaying a level of poise and competence at a position that demands nothing less. As much as the quantifiable aspects of his game, those qualities stand out. He competes on every play, even through the dog days, and his shooting stroke has never wavered despite being mostly theoretical through the first 100 games of his career. Even during a 24-for-95 start to the season from 3-point range, Murray continued to shoot with the confidence of peak Stephen Curry. Eventually, those theoretical skills translated into real production: His 16.3 points per game ranks second among second-year players, and he’s hitting almost 45 percent from deep since Dec. 2.

The parallels to Curry aren’t hard to see, even if Murray isn’t a perfect analog. He doesn’t fit in the mold of a traditional point guard, not yet at least. That might have limited him in other systems. In Denver, it’s a weapon. The offense naturally runs through Nikola Jokic, an exceptionally gifted passing center who functionally runs the point much of the time. That means guards do more work off the ball, cutting, screening and spotting up until the ball finds them, a role for which Murray seems tailored. He developed an innate chemistry with Jokic almost immediately, and complements him in ways a more ball-dominant guard couldn’t.

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Even amid his rookie struggles, a fit was apparent:

Murray never stops moving, on or off the ball. Where some players see giving up the ball as a relinquishing of opportunity or a chance to rest, Murray uses it as another means of shot creation. If a shot doesn’t emerge within the flow of the offense, he’ll ping the ball to the next man, either with the intention of getting it back or spacing the floor to allow for other actions to unfold. His spot-up shooting has jumped from 0.90 points per possession as a rookie to 1.19 this season. He’s seen a similar increase in efficiency coming off screens, jumping from 0.97 points per possession to 1.25 in Year Two.

Few guards fully embrace the value of setting good screens at age 20. Murray, who will ram just about anyone with a hard pick, does. Actions like this one are made almost entirely by him starting a chain reaction that forces the defense to scramble, ultimately resulting in an open shot:

He’s at his best when working without the ball, but Murray grows more potent with it in his hands, seemingly with each passing game. He already has more unassisted baskets this season (135) than he did last season (126), and he is scoring more efficiently out of the pick-and-roll. What Murray lacks in straight-line burst or vertical explosion, he compensates for with shiftiness and touch (though he has sneaky athleticism when provided open space). Every dribble has purpose, and each movement has direction. He’ll start at one speed, then quickly shift to the next gear, often a beat earlier than expected, unsettling his defender’s timing just enough to create a window:

Once Murray generates separation, his quick, versatile release doesn’t need much additional space:

Denver’s offense has run at a top-five level with Murray on the floor. Without him, it sinks to bottom-third territory. That he only assists on 15 percent of made baskets while on the floor is less a reflection of Murray’s own playmaking skills and more a consequence of his team’s approach. Still, he has catching up to do in that regard. Without exceptional size for a guard, he struggles to make passes beyond the simple drop-offs to the roll man. Inexperience contributes as well. As he gains a better sense of the timing on each action, mistakes like this one will be flushed out:

It’s unclear if Denver will ever be able to build a top-10 defense with Murray and Jokic anchoring it, but the pieces for an elite offense are in place.

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The Nuggets are far from a finished product, a truth manifested in their night-to-night inconsistencies on both ends of the floor. Long-term questions as to whom to place around Jokic persist, but Murray’s expanding capability and comfort as a lead guard gives Denver one less variable to worry about.