Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate was dominated early on by the short-handed Pelicans as Anthony Davis (61) and Jrue Holiday (49) went head to head with the Clippers and Blake Griffin (58) as the early game stack built around this core set you up for a solid foundation heading into the later slate. In the “nightcap”, Angry Russell Westbrook showed up after being dunked on by Joel Embiid and proceeded to throw down a slate leading 75 fantasy points of his own on the back of 37 points, 14 assists and 9 rebounds!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate?
Welcome to another Monday in NBA DFS as we get to kick-off the week with some interesting games and some different slate choices as the Main Slate gets going at 7PM EST with Charlotte/Indiana on FanDuel but FantasyDraft is opting to go with the 7:30PM EST start and ignoring the lone “early game.” Personally I love this staggered start especially if you play across multiple sites as you can concentrate on your FanDuel line-ups before 7PM lock and then get another 30 minutes before lock on FantasyDraft. It may sound silly but that extra 30 minutes of news in the NBA can be SO critical and if you want to try out FantasyDraft – make sure to sign up with my referral link to get 10% rake back on your entry fees!
The biggest piece of injury news we are waiting early in the day is the status of Tyreke Evans who is questionable to return to an elite match-up against the Suns tonight. Evans practiced in full on Saturday and is simply looking to test out how he feels in pregame warm ups before making it official and since this was only an illness related absence I would not hesitate to plug him right back into NBA DFS line-ups today.
The Grizzlies could end up being a popular source of value on this slate as we already know that JaMychal Green is out which would put Jarell Martin in a spot to play 25-30 minutes against a Suns team ranked 30th in DvP and Def-Eff against opposing PF’s.
Lastly, keep an eye on the news out of Phoenix as Alex Len has yet to return to practice and Tyson Chandler will be asked to play on the tail end of a back to back after logging 30 minutes on Sunday. I would fully expect Chandler to sit today which would put Greg Monroe in position to start against Memphis with a clear path to 30+ minutes.
Joel Embiid has been told he will be able to play tomorrow, in the second half of a back-to-back, as long as his body feels OK. 😎
— SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) January 28, 2018
The other big piece of news that Vegas is waiting on is the official word that Joel Embiid will be cleared to play on the back to back against the Bucks. There is every expectation that The Process will be able to play today so we are simply waiting on confirmation before we can plug him back into our line-ups.
NBA DFS – Core Plays:
At first glance looking over this slate there is really no “must have” spot I feel like we need to build around. The last two days I have had success building around the fast pace game environments available to us but today its important to note that eight of the twelve teams in action see a pace decrease off their season average. As such, this is not a slate I think you need to build around a game stack or a particular game environment and would instead look to pick the best individual plays from each game within your roster build.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.5K) is the clear top dog on this slate and it would appear that after two games back in the Bucks line-up he is firing on all cylinders after putting up 78 and 53 against the Nets and Bulls. No team on this slate sees a bigger pace boost than the Milwaukee Bucks and without any other all-in spots to build around, I think locking in the raw points upside of Giannis on this short slate is the best first play into your line-ups, especially on FanDuel at $11.6K.
With Giannis back in the fold I would move completely away from Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe who although they see a nice pace up spot, have only been able to put up 33 and 27 fantasy points per game each since Giannis has returned and those match-ups against the Nets and Bulls were better than the one they will see today!
The best spot on the board today is probably the Minnesota Timberwolves who have the highest projected point total and will take on a Hawks team tanked 28th in DvP and 26th in Def-Eff as a team. The beauty of the Timberwolves especially on a slate like this is that we know their starters will log major minutes which makes them a great core build in any format especially when they see a favorable defensive match-up like this.
Karl Anthony Towns ($17.6K) and Jimmy Butler ($17K) look to be worth every penny today as they take on a Hawks team ranked dead last in defending opposing SF’s (in terms of DvP and Def-Eff) and dead last in DvP versus the Center position!
The biggest piece of news that is worth watching here is the status of Jeff Teague who was limited to only 24 minutes of action last time out due to a sore ankle.
Thibs called for Jeff Teague to return to the game tonight in the 4th, but Teague asked to leave Tyus in, because Teague was battling a sore ankle
— Jace frederick (@JaceFrederick) January 28, 2018
If Teague is not able to play, Tyus Jones ($6.9K) would become the chalk value play of the day against a Hawks team ranked 23rd in Def-Eff against the PG position but frankly I would be fine eating the chalk here and taking the salary savings that allows me to pay up for a Giannis-KAT-Butler trio!
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays
The guard position is underwhelming today and with so much clear chalk at other positions, I have no issue taking a chance on some guys with the other spots in GPP play. Jamal Murray ($12K) is basically a Picks and Pivots staple because of his elite upside when he is on but his volatility has likely burned you more often than actually helped you. Murray is coming off back to back underwhelming games, putting up 22 and 26 fantasy points and was actually benched last game due to a violation of team rules so this “burn rate” is at an all-time high!
So today Murray will return to the court against a Celtics team ranked first in Def-Eff and I expect he will be completely ignored on this slate after two straight poor outings and one of the toughest individual match-ups but frankly this is where I think you hop on in tournaments. Remember all – this is a player who has put up 52 and 47 points in two of his last four games and has the kind of upside to win you a slate especially when he is underowned.
As for the match-up, Murray has faced this Boston team once already and dropped 52 fantasy points against them and that was with Marcus Smart on the court. Now it is important to realize that game was played without Nikola Jokic AND Will Barton so the usage was much higher for Murray that it will be tonight but the upside is clearly there and if he is going to be low owned than I want as much tournament exposure as I can get!
We already mentioned Greg Monroe as an interesting option for Phoenix tonight but do not over look Isaiah Canaan ($7.1K) who can be used as a potential pivot off Tyus Jones if we want to avoid the chalk OR need to adjust if Jeff Teague is ruled in. Canaan continues to come off the bench but it looks like this Troy Daniels starting line-up experiment will be short-lived as he has only played 15 and 23 minutes the last two games. Canaan on the other hand got the fourth quarter run yesterday with the Suns starters which is always a great indication of where a player’s role truly is and we have already seen Canaan put up 20 or more fantasy points in three of his last six games so there is some sneaky value to be had here on a slate where we are going to need it!
One additional pivot player that has caught my eye initially is Aron Baynes ($7.7K) who will likely re-enter the starting line-up tonight for the Celtics as they are forced to match-up with the front line of the Nuggets. Baynes is always a match-up dependent play but with a Nuggets team rolling out Nikola Jokic and Mason Plumlee, Baynes size will be needed to contend with Denver down low. We have seen Baynes put up exceptional numbers when logging significant court time against similar front lines as he played 26 minutes and racked up 11 points, 10 rebounds and 28 fantasy points against Minnesota. Baynes actually played really well in the first meeting between these two teams as well when he played 28 minutes and put up 25 fantasy points. Now it is important to note that Al Horford AND Nikola Jokic sat out that game so this is not going to have the exact same script but I would expect 20-25 minutes of Baynes tonight minimally and his production at this price could be a salary saving difference maker!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Jamal Murray ($6,500)
PG: Tyus Jones ($3,800)
SG: Nicolas Batum ($5,500)
SG: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4,000)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($9,400)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
PF: Jarell Martin ($5,200)
PF: Ersan Illyasova ($4,200)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)
Slate Overview: At first glance my goal today is going to be to jam in the trio of Giannis-KAT-Butler in all formats and frankly on FanDuel this is WAY too easy to do. We will need some value to make it work but we should have that with some key pieces out in Memphis and we may get even more if Jeff Teague sits out. This has a decidedly Stars and Scrubs feel to it early on so keep an eye on the news that could open up even more value for us throughout the day!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!