Top-5 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the catcher prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
There are prospect lists all over the internet, but as our name suggests, our interest is just Fantasy Baseball. The players detailed in the next few pages are expected to have a fantasy impact this season.
In addition, we will be taking a look at some players that need your attention in dynasty leagues. These players are, in some cases, several years from producing in the big leagues but prospects are the lifeblood of dynasty leagues.
The catching prospects that appear on other lists are usually ranked for their defensive skills and game-calling abilities, as well as their potential for offensive production. We are only interested in how they will produce in fantasy baseball leagues. Obviously, we need them to stay behind the plate, but there is a reason Gary Sanchez is the first catcher drafted and not a defensive-maestro like Tucker Barnhart.
Catching prospects are notoriously unreliable in fantasy baseball. At the start of the 2015 season, the top catching prospect in the game was Red Sox’ Blake Swihart. Eighth on the list and the only fantasy-viable, MLB regular is (soon-to-be former) Marlins’ catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Another trend with catching prospects is the slow speed at which they progress from traditional top-10 lists to impacting in the Major League. The only catching prospect from last season’s MLB Pipeline top-10 to graduate was the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes.
The 28-year-old is an intriguing player in fantasy this season, having held off the Dodgers’ first-choice catcher Yasmani Grandal for most of the postseason. In 2017, Barnes posted .895 OPS with a very impressive .408 OBP, while hitting eight home runs and 22 doubles.
LONG TERM CATCHER INVESTMENTS
These catchers are unlikely to have fantasy value this season but are important players to know for dynasty leagues.
Keibert Ruiz (C-LAD)
The smart money is on the Dodgers’ 19-year-old being the No.1 catching prospect in 2019. The Venezuelan hit .316 with eight home runs, two triples and 23 doubles, in 101 games in Single-A. Don’t expect Los Angeles to rush the development of their No.3 prospect, so it will be three or four years before he makes his MLB debut, by which time he could be one of the top-10 prospects in the game. Obviously much can go wrong between High-A and the majors, but Ruiz should be owned in all dynasty leagues if you are looking at the long-game. ETA 2021.
Andy Yerzy (C-ARI)
The second-rounder from the 2016 draft broke out last season, slashing .298/.365/.524 with 12 doubles and 13 home runs in 54 games in Rookie ball. There is skepticism as to whether the Canadian, who says Russell Martin is his role model, can remain behind the plate. If the 19-year-old’s advances in power continue, then Yerzy could be a very interesting player to own in fantasy in a couple of years. ETA 2021.
Daulton Varsho (C-ARI)
The 21-year-old is the second catcher within the Diamondbacks’ organization on this list. The second-rounder from the 2017 draft slashed .311/.368/.534 with seven home runs, 16 doubles, 39 RBI and he also stole seven bases over 50 games at Low-A. There are question marks about his arm strength, but if he continues to hit, Arizona will tolerate below-average gunning down of base stealers, in exchange for five-category production from behind the plate. ETA 2020.
Sean Murphy (C-OAK)
Elite defensive catcher and the No.4 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The 23-year-old posted .870 OPS in High-A but struggled at the higher level, with .597 OPS in Double-A. The glove is MLB ready, but the bat is a long way behind. Currently, Murphy is a better player in the real world than fantasy. ETA 2019.
Austin Allen (C-SDP)
At 24-years-old, Austin Allen is closer to fantasy relevance than most on this list. The left-hander slashed .283/.353/.497 with 71 runs, 22 home runs and 81 RBI over a full season of 121 games in High-A last year. He has made improvements to allay early concerns over his defensive abilities and could be the Padres’ bat-first catcher of the future. ETA 2019.
Reese McGuire (C-TOR)
The Blue Jays have two excellent catching prospects. Reese McGuire is a glove-first/bat-second catcher with good contact skills. The 22-year-old is a regular fixture in top-100 prospect lists, although his value in fantasy baseball is limited. 2017 represented a big step forward in power when the left-hander slashed .278/.366/.496 with six home runs in 34 games. He maintained his excellent plate discipline with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. ETA 2019.
Jake Rogers (C-DET)
The 22-year-old, who arrived from Houston in the Justin Verlander deal, is widely acknowledged as the top defensive catcher in the minors. Although he has not played above High-A, Rogers showed surprising pop in his bat with 18 home runs, 25 doubles and 70 RBI in 112 games last season. He is the No.5 catcher according to MLB Pipeline. ETA 2020.
Alex Jackson (C-ATL)
The sixth-overall pick from the 2014 draft was widely considered the best high school hitter of the class, but the outfielder failed to live up to expectations and almost disappeared out of relevancy until a trade to the Braves in 2016. He switched to catcher, a position he had not played since high school, and suddenly he became a viable fantasy option in dynasty leagues.
The former top-20 prospect has prodigious power and hit .267 with 19 home runs and .808 OPS in 367 at-bats between High-A and Double-A last season. Jackson tied third with five home runs in the Arizona Fall League while drawing rave reviews for his improved game-calling and blocking. He has legitimate 30-homer power and should definitely be considered in dynasty leagues. ETA 2019.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
If everything falls right, these three catchers could be in the majors this season.
Tom Murphy (C-COL)
The Rockies’ catcher entered last season as one of the most hyped catchers having hit five home runs in 44 at-bats, after already going deep 19 times in Triple-A. The potential for 25-30 home runs from behind the plate was enticing, especially from a prospect playing half of his games at Coors Field.
Unfortunately, he fractured his forearm in Spring Training and then slugged 200 points lower in Triple-A than he had the year before. Murphy was restricted to just 12 games in the majors last season, and the Rockies utilized Tony Wolters, Ryan Hanigan and Jonathan Lucroy. The trio amassed four home runs between them in over 550 plate appearances.
Murphy will arrive at Spring Training hoping to break camp, but his fortunes will be determined by whether he can recapture his form at the plate and the production from new signing Chris Iannetta.
Danny Jansen (C-TOR)
If the path to playing time is the biggest asset of a fantasy prospect, then Jansen’s 2018 stock is low. The 22-year is blocked for the next two seasons behind Russell Martin and his $ 20 million per year contract.
After scuffing .218 AVG in High-A in 2016, Jansen appeared from nowhere to storm through three levels of the minors last year, slashing .323/.400/.484 with 10 home runs and more walks than strikeouts.
In a fairy tale scenario, Jansen claims:
"“Last year, I realized that things weren’t as clear anymore, so after the season I went to the eye doctor. He told me I had astigmatism, so I got a prescription and started wearing glasses last fall. I’m seeing everything so clear now, like a normal person with good eyes would.”"
Obviously, we would like to see a longer track record of production, but on the basis of one season, Jansen offers enticing fantasy intrigue. The Blue Jays’ No.7 prospect has a shot at making the Opening Day roster as Martin’s backup. His 2018 fantasy value will be tied to the form of the 34-year-old veteran catcher.
Zack Collins (C-CWS)
The former first-rounder from the 2016 draft, Zack Collins hit .224 with 20 home runs and .816 OPS last season, while walking 87 times to 129 strikeouts in 113 games between High-A and Double-A.
He is ranked No.6 on the impressive White Sox prospect list, although he would be lower had Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez not already graduated.
Collins is a strong, left-hander who will play in the hitter-friendly environment of Guaranteed Rate Field (formerly U.S. Cellular Field). He walks, strikes out and hits home runs, so will be more of an asset in OBP leagues than AVG formats.
Questions remain about the 21-year-old’s defensive skills. His bat is big league ready and could debut this season with the view over taking over primary catching duties when Welington Castillo becomes a free agent at the end of next season.
He can be ignored in single-season fantasy leagues, but grab him quickly if Castillo hits the DL.
NUMBER FIVE
Chance Sisco (C-BAL)
Orioles’ Chance Sisco’s reputation as a top prospect has suffered due to not meeting the overly optimistic expectations of regular baseball fans. Catchers, more than any other position, take time to develop.
The second-rounder has averaged .311 with an elite .390 OBP over five years in the minors. Although his production dipped last season, the 22-year-old has demonstrated a consistent ability to hit for average.
Orioles’ fans who had been waiting since 2013 for Sisco to reach the big leagues were not disappointed when he hit .333 with two home runs and 1.232 OPS in his 10-game taste of Major League action last year.
The left-handed hitter will play in the majors in 2018 and is expected to see the bulk of the action against right-handed pitchers. If Sisco hits, he has the opportunity to be the Orioles’ first choice catcher. Platoon-partner Caleb Joseph, with career .637 OPS, will not stand in his way.
NUMBER FOUR
Victor Caratini (C-CHC)
There are few worse places to call home than Chicago if you are a power-hitting catcher/first baseman. With Willson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs are set at those two positions for the foreseeable future, so Victor Caratini’s fantasy value is limited until injury or trade open up playing time.
The Puerto Rican hit .342 with 10 home runs and .951 OPS in 83 games in Triple-A last season, before a less impressive 59 at-bat debut stretch in the majors when he slashed .254/.333/.356.
Although the Caratini is unlikely to be as good as his 2017 Triple-A stats suggest, the switch-hitter offers solid, reliable doubles-power, although there is legitimate concern that his below-average catching skills mean his future will not be behind the plate.
It is still undetermined whether Caratini starts the season in Triple-A or acts as Contreras’ backup. The fantasy value of the 24-years-old will rocket if the Cubs trade him away for a young, controllable pitcher.
NUMBER THREE
Jorge Alfaro (C-PHI)
Before the 2012 season, Baseball Prospectus ranked Jorge Alfaro as the 101st best prospect. He has appeared in their top-101 every year since. Other prospect evaluators have cooled on the Colombian due to his poor plate discipline and the failure to progress as quickly as was hoped.
There was significant prospect-fatigue when Alfaro was promoted to the majors in August, but that was soon forgotten when he went on a tear, hitting .318 with five home runs and .874 OPS in 29 games.
Don’t get too excited. Everything points to his impressive stretch being unsustainable. In 84 Triple-A games, the 24-year-old only posted .649 OPS with 113 strikeouts to 16 walks.
Without any remaining options, Alfaro is guaranteed a roster spot and based on his cameo at the end of last season; he has the inside track for the lion’s share of playing time with Cameron Rupp acting as his back up.
If the biggest fantasy asset for any prospect is the avenue for playing time, then Alfaro demands your attention.
NUMBER TWO
Carson Kelly (C-STL)
Yadier Molina says he will retire after the 2020 season, meaning Carson Kelly could be little more than a backup catcher for the next couple of years. The 23-year-old would probably be the first choice catcher for more than half of the 30 MLB teams.
He hit .283 with 10 home runs and .834 OPS in Triple-A last season but only managed 12 hits in 75 plate appearances as a backup catcher in the majors. He needs to develop more power and consistency at the Major League level, which isn’t easy with erratic playing time.
Molina, who turns 36 during the season, set a career-high last year with 82 RBI, and his 18 home runs and nine stolen bases were both among the best returns of his 15 seasons. Let us be realistic, Molina cannot maintain this level, and he cannot continue to endure the pounding his body sustains on a near-daily basis. The opportunity for Kelly could be closer than you think.
NUMBER ONE
Francisco Mejia (C-CLE)
In 2016, Dominican Francisco Mejia made the headlines with a 50-game hitting streak and then followed it up with 102 hits in 92 games at Double-A in 2017. He finished the season hitting .297 with 14 home runs.
Mejia is widely acknowledged as the best all-around catcher in the minor leagues and one of the top-12 prospects in the game, regardless of position.
The switch-hitter has a high-contact/low-walk skill set, and the Indians are so keen to get Mejia’s bat in the lineup, he has added third base to his repertoire. Although with Jose Ramirez, Yandy Diaz and Giovanny Urshela, the Indians are stacked at third base, so don’t be too concerned with the possibility of Mejia losing his value as a catcher.
Indians’ catching duo of Yan Gomes (.708 OPS) and Robertos Perez (.664 OPS) both struck out at least 25% of the time. Mejia, by contrast, only strikes out at an impressively low 13%, which coupled with this .349 OBP in the minors, results in the kind of number nine hitter that every team would want.
If Mejia can demonstrate the ability to handle the pitching staff, he could be the Indians’ first choice catcher by the end of the season. It won’t be easy, Indians’ manager Terry Francona is remarkable loyal and will give Gomes and Perez every opportunity to recapture their form.
The Indians’ top prospect should be owned in all dynasty leagues and, although he will likely start the season in Triple-A, expect Mejia to offer high floor/high ceiling fantasy value as early as this season.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
Orioles’ Chance Sisco and Phillies’ Jorge Alfaro are both expected to receive significant playing time this season. Carson Kelly and Victor Caratini need an injury or trade to create an opening. Francisco Mejia is the best catching prospect in baseball but will need to impress in Spring Training to force the Indians to give him an opportunity.