Top-5 Fantasy Baseball First Base/DH Prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the first base and designated hitter prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
As our name suggests, our interest is Just Fantasy Baseball, so although there are prospect lists all over the internet, the players detailed in the new few pages are expected to have a fantasy impact this season.
In addition, we will take a quick look at some hitters that need your attention in deeper dynasty formats. Some of these players are several years from making a significant contribution at the Major League level, but prospects are a vitally important element of dynasty leagues.
Generally, sluggers with limited defensive ability are consigned to first base, with their power and hit-tool carrying them to the big leagues. There appears to be a trend among the prospects in this article to have less power than in previous years but with excellent contact skills.
Four players graduated from last year’s top-10. The most impressive was Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, who went on to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, after hitting 39 home runs with .933 OPS. Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins hit 18 home runs in 50 games with 1.014 OPS. Hoskins’ peripherals suggest that he will be under-drafted compared to Bellinger, but perhaps that needs to be explored in a separate article.
Pirates’ Josh Bell only just qualified as a rookie and produced an unexpected level of power with 26 home runs. In selling out, the switch-hitter struck out at a career-high 19%, and his batting average dropped to .255, although it was influenced by a low BABIP.
The fourth prospect to lose his rookie-eligibility was Mets’ first baseman Dominic Smith. The 22-year-old posted three straight seasons with a batting average above .300 in the minors but struggled to .198 AVG and .658 OPS in 49 games in the majors last season. He hit a career-high 25 home runs across all levels and would probably have been the No.3 prospect on this list if his rookie-eligibility was still intact.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
These first base and designated hitter prospects are unlikely to have fantasy value this season but are important players to know for dynasty leagues.
Brendan McKay (1B/SP-TB)
The fourth overall pick from the 2017 draft is ‘other’ two-way player. Widely regarded as the best college bat in his draft class, the 22-year-old slashed .232/.349/.376 with four home runs, 16 runs, 22 RBI and two stolen bases in 125 at-bats. He showed mature pitch recognition and plate discipline with 21 walks to 33 strikeouts.
Although drafted for his bat, it was his arm that most-impressed last season. Similar to Shohei Ohtani, it is difficult to rank two-way players against true 1B/DH-hitters because we do not know how their skills will be implemented and how often their bat will appear in the lineup.
MLB Pipeline ranks Brendan McKay as their top first baseman, so he needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues. ETA 2020.
Bobby Bradley (1B-CLE)
The left-hander is arguably the most powerful slugger in the minors. He has hit 79 home runs over the last three seasons and is still only 21-years-old. Impressively, he has addressed his biggest problem by reducing his strikeout rate from 30% to 23%. With Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso installed as the Indians’ first baseman and DH, there is unlikely to be an opening for Bradley in Cleveland this season. ETA 2019.
Pavin Smith (1B-ARI)
To be tabbed as Paul Goldschmidt’s replacement is to heap a lot of pressure on the shoulders of a 21-year-old. The seventh overall pick from the 2017 draft hit .318 with .401 OBP in Low-A and walked more than he struck out. MLB Pipeline ranks Smith as the third best first baseman in the minors. ETA 2020.
Matt Thaiss (1B-LAA)
The Angels’ first-round pick from 2016 slashed .274/.375/.395 between High-A and Double-A last season. He failed to hit double-digit homers but scored 75 runs with 73 RBI. The 22-year-old left-hander has a mature approach, but with the logjam at 1B and DH in Anaheim, he will be given time to develop. ETA 2019.
Evan White (1B-SEA)
The Mariners’ first-round pick from the 2017 draft posted .877 OPS in Rookie ball with three home runs. He offers an excellent glove, good contact skills but limited power potential. The 21-year-old is the No.2 prospect for an organization with a void at first base. ETA 2021.
Peter Alonso (1B-NYM)
The Mets’ second-round pick from the 2016 draft slashed .289/.359/.524 with 18 home runs last season between High-A and Double-A, despite missing six weeks with a broken hand. Although he is behind Dominic Smith on the Mets’ depth chart, Alonso is one of the most powerful sluggers in the organization. ETA 2019.
Lewin Diaz (1B-MIN)
Dominican left-hander hit .292 with 12 home runs and .773 OPS in Single-A. He has tremendous power potential and good contact skills. In fantasy, he has potential to be very valuable if he can harness his raw power. ETA 2020.
Nick Pratto (1B-KC)
Another two-way player! The 19-year-old was taken in the first-round of the 2017 draft before hitting .247 with .745 OPS, four home runs and 24 walks with 58 strikeouts in Rookie ball. Pratto is an impressive all-around player with a mature approach who should be owned in all dynasty leagues. If he develops the power that is projected, he could be a superstar. ETA 2021.
NUMBER FIVE
Ronald Guzman (1B-TEX)
The Dominican scored 78 runs, 12 home runs, 62 RBI and four stolen bases with a .298/.372/.434 slash line in 125 games in Triple-A.
He impressively reduced his strikeout rate from 24% down to 16%, to go along with a 9% walk rate. Guzman is a powerful left-handed batter but has yet to convert the potential into results. If he does, then the combination of patience, contact skills and power will make him a must-own fantasy hitter.
Joey Gallo is expected to be the Rangers’ Opening Day first baseman, but there are opportunities at designated hitter, or at first base if Gallo needs to switch to third to cover for 38-year-old Adrian Beltre.
NUMBER FIVE
Dan Vogelbach (1B-SEA)
The forgotten man of Seattle quietly went about putting together an impressive season in Triple-A with 17 home runs, 65 runs and 83 RBI, and a slash line of .290/.388.455. He walked 76 times with 98 strikeouts.
The 25-year-old is an on-base machine with raw power and excellent contact skills. His production is erratic, but given an extended run in the majors, Vogelbach could easily establish himself as a valuable fantasy contributor.
There is a gaping hole at first base in Seattle, although there are still lots of first base sluggers available on free agency. Vogelbach has only hit .175 in 40 MLB at-bats over the last two years, meaning we will still be there in the last rounds of drafts.
NUMBER THREE
Ryan McMahon (1B/3B-COL)
After a disappointing 2016, Ryan McMahon disappeared from top-100 lists, but a resurgent 2017 makes him one of the best first base prospects in the game.
He destroyed Double-A and Triple-A pitching with .355/.403/.583 (.986 OPS), including 20 home runs, 39 doubles, four triples, 74 runs, 88 RBI and 11 stolen bases. The only negative was the extreme splits of 1.059 OPS vs. RHP and .633 OPS vs. LHP.
The 23-year-old made dramatic improvements at the plate, reducing his strikeout rate from 30% down to 18%, while also improving his contact rate.
Although he only hit .158 in his 24 plate appearance taster in the majors, he impressively walked as many times as he struck out.
Unless the Rockies sign one of the numerous free agent sluggers available (Mark Reynolds, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Eric Hosmer), McMahon will be the Opening Day first baseman, although probably platooning with Pat Valaika and Ian Desmond.
If the Rockies give the job to the left-hander, do not be surprised if he finishes the season as one of the main Rookie of the Year contenders. He will benefit from the impressive Colorado lineup and by playing half of his games in hitting paradise of Coors Field. McMahon needs to be owned in all fantasy leagues.
NUMBER TWO
Jake Bauers (1B/OF-TB)
The 22-year-old plays first base and the outfield. At the moment, the Rays have a greater need at first base, and it is there that Jake Bauers will likely debut in 2018.
In a full season in Triple-A last year, Bauers slashed .263/.368/.412 with 13 home runs, 79 runs, 63 RBI and 20 stolen bases. He is a mature hitter with good speed on the base paths. Bauers will have instant fantasy impact when promoted by the Rays and will give you many more stolen bases than most first basemen.
He does not project as a 30-homer slugger, so unless there is a power breakout this season, expect his fantasy production to be similar to early career Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt.
NUMBER ONE
Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP-LAA)
So much has been written about the two-way phenom before he has even had one big league at-bat. The variance of fantasy outcomes of the Japanese superstar is vast. He could be the 2018 MVP, or he could offer replacement-level production with both the bat and the ball. Until we know how much playing time he will get, it is difficult to put a value on him.
Over his last 525 at-bats in the Japan Pacific League, Ohtani hit 30 home runs with 98 RBI, 34 doubles and .328 batting average. There is an assumption that the Japanese league is of a similar level to Triple-A. Given that, the 23-year-old should be an impact fantasy contributor this season.
Obviously, we do not know how the Angels will utilize his two-way talents, and as yet, some of the fantasy baseball platforms are still to confirm how the scoring dilemma presented by Ohtani will be resolved. Given the value Ohtani offers as both hitter and pitcher, he is a must-own player in all formats, and it is likely that a top-50 pick will be required to secure his services.
The slugger strikes out 26% of the time, so there is the chance that he will struggle to make contact against Major League pitchers. The Steamer projection system suggests 11 home runs, 35 runs, 37 RBI, three stolen bases and .257 batting average, which will be a disappointing return considering the excitement that has followed his move to the USA.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
Ohtani could be the most sensational player in the majors this season, or he could provide mediocre production. McMahon has game-changing power, especially in the thin air of Colorado, but he needs the chance to play. Bauers is a class-act and will enthrall Rays’ fans and fantasy owners alike.