Breaking down the fantasy basketball ramifications of the Blake Griffin trade.
The NBA’s trade season began in earnest Monday, as ESPN.com’s Adrian Wojnarowski broke the news that the Los Angeles Clippers were sending Blake Griffin, Brice Johnson and Willie Reed to the Detroit Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, a lightly protected 2018 first-round pick and a 2019 second-rounder.
Fantasy basketball owners must now sift through the wreckage and recalibrate their expectations for all Pistons and Clippers players, accordingly.
How will this trade affect those who were moved and the other members of both teams? Let’s dig in
Detroit Pistons
Heading into Tuesday, Griffin sits just inside of the top 50 on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. He’s long been a stat-stuffer when it comes to points (22.6), rebounds (7.9) and assists (5.4), and he added a 3-point stroke (1.9) this season to round out his fantasy appeal. However, his lack of defensive counting stats—he’s averaging only 0.9 steals and 0.3 blocks—limit his upside.
In Detroit, he’ll be going from playing alongside one elite rebounder in DeAndre Jordan to another in Andre Drummond. The latter’s emergence as a playmaker this season separates him from the former, so the Pistons could begin running a poor man’s version of the high-low action DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis were dominating with in New Orleans. While Drummond can stand at the elbow and feed the ball down low to Griffin, opponents won’t have to respect him as a potential mid- or long-range shooter much as they do with Cousins and Davis. The spacing concerns typically associated with traditional frontcourts will apply far more in Detroit than they did in New Orleans.
It may take Griffin some time to grow acclimated to his new setting, but Pistons head coach/team president Stan Van Gundy likely plans on throwing his shiny new toy right into the fire. With Reggie Jackson still sidelined by a Grade 3 ankle sprain, Detroit is in desperate need of complementary playmakers to assist its underwhelming floor generals. In Griffin and Drummond, the Pistons now have one of the best passing frontcourts across the league.
Fantasy owners shouldn’t panic-trade Griffin just because he’s now a Piston, but health concerns remain ever-present. If you can find someone willing to give up a top-50 asset for Griffin — say, a Rudy Gobert or Myles Turner, perhaps? — that’s a deal worth exploring. Otherwise, brace yourself for a few rocky weeks and hope Griffin and Drummond get their chemistry established by the time the fantasy postseason rolls around.
Griffin’s arrival isn’t necessarily great news for Drummond, who now must share a frontcourt with a high-usage offensive weapon. While Griffin should provide a much-needed pop of playmaking, that may reduce Drummond’s opportunity to serve as a facilitator. Considering his newfound passing is what helped drive his fantasy value so high this year — along with vastly improved free-throw shooting — a downtick in assists shaves a bit of value off Drummond’s rest-of-season outlook.
Bradley’s departure opens a void on the wing for Detroit, and there’s no obvious solution to fill that hole. Luke Kennard, Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson and Langston Galloway all could be in line for increased minutes, but until we see how the Pistons’ new rotations shake out, it’s unclear who stands to benefit the most. Bullock has been a fixture in Detroit’s starting lineup for the past month-and-a-half, so he merits a speculative add since the Pistons will need his 3-point shooting ability to help provide spacing alongside Griffin and Drummond. Otherwise, Kennard and Galloway could hold some deep-league appeal, but neither is worth rushing to pick up in 10- or 12-team formats.
Los Angeles Clippers
Those who spent a middle-round pick on Tobias Harris can’t be thrilled about his move, as he was flirting with top-50 value on a per-game basis in Detroit while averaging a career-high 18.1 points on 45.1 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.4 triples and 2.0 assists in 32.6 minutes. Going West may not be the end of the world for his fantasy value, though.
Since he’ll be replacing Griffin in the Clippers’ starting lineup, head coach Doc Rivers likely will task Harris with remaining aggressive offensively and serving as a top scoring option. As with Griffin, it may take Harris some time to grow comfortable in his new environment, so fantasy owners shouldn’t panic if he struggles during his first few games with the Clippers. After the All-Star break, he should be back to producing middle-round value, particularly if L.A.’s roster overhaul isn’t yet complete.
According to Wojnarowski, both DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams could likewise be on the move in the coming days. That would wind up being a huge blow to Williams’ rest-of-season outlook, as he’d likely land on a contender who wouldn’t rely on him nearly as heavily as the Clippers have. Considering Williams is putting up top-25 value on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, this may be your last chance to sell high on him before L.A. ships him out and sinks his fantasy upside.
If Jordan finds himself on the move, however, his rest-of-season trajectory isn’t likely to change much. Wherever he ends up, he’ll be an elite source of rebounds and field-goal percentage and a steady shot-blocker. Fantasy owners should be in less of a hurry to flip him in advance of any potential trade from the Clippers, but now isn’t a bad time to shop him around the league given the uncertainty surrounding his outlook moving forward.
Next: The Encyclopedia of Modern Moves
If the Clippers do find a taker for Williams, Bradley’s fantasy value would go soaring. He’s been mired in a miserable season with Detroit, averaging 15.0 points on 40.9 percent shooting, 2.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.9 triples and 1.2 steals in 31.7 minutes, but the injury-ravaged Clippers will have no choice but to lean upon him heavily with Austin Rivers still sidelined and Patrick Beverley done for the year. Bradley, who’s available in nearly 50 percent of ESPN.com leagues at the moment, is well worth a speculative pickup regardless of what happens with Williams in the next week-and-a-half.
All ownership percentages via ESPN.com. All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues and are current heading into Tuesday, Jan. 30.