DraftKings NBA picks January 31: Embiid should dominate Nets

DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 24: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts after scoring against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on January 24, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks January 31: Embiid should dominate Nets

We have eight games tonight, but most of the great options – and great values – were in action last night. This feels like a night

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving ($9,000): I’m not going to say that Irving is likely to hit value, but he is likely to hit 40 DraftKings points. He has done so in the last six games and in the first meeting with the Knicks. There isn’t a ton of upside with Irving, but it is decent enough, and he has a solid floor. Sometimes that is worth paying for.

Damian Lillard ($8,900): The Bulls continue to be one of the worst teams in the league defending the point, though they are marginally better with Kris Dunn out. Dunn is still concussed, but there isn’t anyone here that can contain Lillard. Lillard has exceeded 5x value, even at this price, in five of the last seven games. The Blazers are playing well right now, and Lillard will continue to be the driving force. That makes him a pretty safe DFS proposition.

Honorable Mention:

Kemba Walker ($8,400): The Hawks have been decent defending the point, but they haven’t been able to handle Walker this season. I two games Walker has 93 DraftKings points against the Hawks. Walker has hit 5x value or better in four of the last six games. This looks like five of eight to me.

Tyreke Evans ($8,200): Evans was too much for Collison to handle in the first meeting, putting up 44.5 DraftKings points in only 32 minutes in the first meeting. Evans has not hit value over the last four games, which does make him a bit of a risk here, but I still like the potential against Indiana. With the rash of injuries and Gasol struggling, Evans is about all that Memphis has right now.

Jordan Clarkson ($7,000): Ball is still out of the lineup, which means another start for Clarkson. Clarkson has 197 DraftKings points in the five games with Ball out. There puts him almost right at 5.5x value. This is a great matchup against Orlando as well, so don’t be surprised if Clarkson flirts with 50 in this one.

Dark Horses:

Terry Rozier ($5,300): Rozier has been the main beneficiary of the injury to Marcus Smart. He has at least 5x value in the three games with Smart out, and saw his minutes jump to 30 against the Nuggets on Monday. There is a good chance that he sees that kind of run again tonight considering he put up 22.25 DraftKings points despite going 3-14 from the floor in the first meeting with the Knicks. There is some solid potential here.

Yogi Ferrell ($5,100): The minutes were still there for Ferrell on Monday, but a rough shooting night caused him to be a big swing and a miss in DFS circles. I do like his matchup with the Suns here, and the Mavs still played him 33 minutes despite his struggles, so it seems that Ferrell’s role is safe. I expect people to jump ship after Monday’s tough night. That makes me want him a little more!

Tyler Johnson ($4,900): Johnson is likely the team’s best guard next to Dragic with Waiters out. I expect Johnson to continue to get plenty of run over the remainder of the season. The Heat guards have a superb matchup with Cleveland tonight. Johnson is the one that I expect to take the most advantage of this matchup. His minutes were back up to 28 on Monday night. There is a chance that he could top 30 tonight, which would make him a really good bargain at this price.

My pick: Johnson(PG); Walker(PG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 23: CJ McCollum #3 of the Portland Trail Blazers dribbles upcourt during the second half of a game against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on December 23, 2017 in Los Angeles, California.(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

C.J. McCollum ($7,100): C.J. tore up the Bulls in the first meeting, going for 53 DraftKings points in that game. The Bulls still can’t defend the wing. The only thing that might keep McCollum under wraps is having Lillard around, but the duo has proven several times this season that they can both have games well over value in the same game. This would look to be one of those games.

Nicolas Batum ($6,200): SG is littered with overpriced players starting at the top with Oladipo, and it trickles all the way down. I will admit that Batum looks overpriced, but he put up 38.5 DraftKings points in only 28 minutes against the Hawks in the first meeting. I would much rather go with Batum than Evan Fournier, who has proven time and again that his ceiling is in the low 30’s, yet his price is $6,500. Batum is much more likely to get you value tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Richardson ($6,200): The return of Johnson has hurt Ellington more than Richardson. The Heat remain committed to playing Richardson at least 30 minutes a game and he just keeps right on hitting value. Richardson does not have a high ceiling, but he does have a high floor. He is almost always within a ten game range between 24 and 34 DraftKings points. That makes him a favorite of mine in cash games, but he is useful for GPP purposes when a lot of the field at a position is overpriced. That is the case tonight.

Kent Bazemore ($5,800): Oh, what to do with Bazemore? He followed up arguably the worst game of his career, a 1-9 performance with just 3.5 DraftKings points in 18 minutes against Washington, with an explosion against the Timberwolves. Three games ago he faced tonight’s opponent and ravaged them for 40.5 DraftKIngs points. Let’s call that Washington performance the outlier and ride Bazemore against a weaker Charlotte defense.

Jaylen Brown ($5,700): The past stats and matchups keep supporting the use of Brown, but he has not lived up to the billing lately. Brown has missed 5x value in six straight games and nine of the last 11. I know that Marcus Smart is out, and I know that Brown put up 33.5 DraftKings points the first time they played the Knicks, but this is a tough sell.

Dark Horses:

Wesley Matthews ($5,500): Matthews has not been the most consistent guy for DFS purposes either. I am willing to overlook that in a matchup against the Suns. This matchup gets even better for Matthews and company if Devin Booker is out again. At any rate, we have seen Matthews come up with some big lines lately. Another is possible tonight.

Mario Hezonja ($4,800): This is only a play if Aaron Gordon sits out again. Last night Hezonja wasn’t that much of a factor with Gordon out, so he isn’t a must play option at this point. The Magic were content to run small against the Rockets. I’m not sure that’s feasible against the Lakers. Hezonja should see a solid run here. Solid enough to use him at this price.

Wayne Seldon ($3,900): Selden went off on Monday night, but we need to temper our excitement a bit. It was against the Booker-less Suns. At any rate, the Grizz have another solid matchup with the Pacers. Selden has more upside than Dillon Brooks, but Brooks is getting more minutes. That may change after Selden’s eruption on Monday. I expect Selden to get good minutes at a really low price tonight. Whether that will amount to production is anyone’s guess.

My pick: Bazemore(SG); Bazemore(SG)

DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 30: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers drives to the basket while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 30, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit won the game 125-114. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,100): You know there is still some hostility between James and Pat Riley, but the King has no beef with anyone currently on this team. The rivalry has lost some of its luster. James still put up 58 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes in the first meeting. Even if this game gets out of hand, James still looks like a strong play. You know he isn’t going to sit against the Heat even if the Cavs are in the second night of a back to back.

T.J. Warren ($6,700): I don’t fully trust that Ben Simmons is back on the right track just yet. I would rather drop down to Warren, who could have a huge night if Booker is out. If Booker plays, this is a less than ideal matchup for Warren. However, he did go for 32.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Dallas. He is a solid play regardless, but I like him a lot more if Booker sits. The problem is that this game tips 3.5 hours after lineup lock, so we likely wont have any concrete status on Booker by the time we need it.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Ingram ($6,300): Ingram seems to be back on track lately. It is strange that Ingram usually does his best work when the Lakers are almost at full strength. His assists have risen with Ball out, which makes Ingram a pretty strong play once again. Then when you look at the opponent, Ingram almost looks like one of the better options at any position in this tier.

Thaddeus Young ($5,900): Young struggled in the first game with Memphis, but that was when Memphis was largely at full strength. Forwards have had their way against Memphis with JaMychal Green out. Green is still likely out tonight, so Young should be a solid play. He has topped 30 DraftKings points in six of the last eight games.

Jayson Tatum ($5,600): Tatum has shown flashes of being another scorer on a team that really needs one. Tatum has topped 30 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. Tonight he gets a Knicks team that he has taken for 66.75 DraftKings points in two games this year. Lance Thomas can’t handle him, so Tatum looks like a solid play once again.

Dark Horses:

Denzel Valentine ($5,500): The pendulum has swung back to Valentine lately with the struggles of Justin Holiday. Holiday has the better long term value, but that’s not why you’re here. Valentine has 71.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, and a pretty good matchup against a Portland team that he picked up 32.75 DraftKings points on earlier this year. The stats say that Valentine is a good play, but I’m still skeptical.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,100): Aminu put up one of his two 40+ Draftkings points games this season against the Bulls earlier this year. The Bulls don’t really defend well anywhere, but they really had problems with Aminu’s rebounding ability and his offensive chops that he has developed this season. Aminu has been a pretty solid performer lately, but he lacks significant upside, even against the Bulls.

Justin Anderson ($3,500): The struggles of Luwawu-Cabarrot has opened up playing time for Justin Anderson. Anderson has hit at least 6x value in each of the last four games. Now is the time to move off of TLC and on to Anderson for you bargain hunters.

My pick: James(SF), Anderson(G); Ingram(G), Young(SF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 18: Dario Saric #9 of the Philadelphia 76ers dunks the ball against the Golden State Warriors at Wells Fargo Center on November 18, 2017 in Philadelphia,Pennsylvania.. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Dario Saric ($6,900): I don’t like much from this position at all. Saric is the first one price wise that I would even consider. He has been stymied by tougher defenses, but the Nets are still without Hollis-Jefferson. That makes Saric more of a prized commodity. He is capable of big games, but that isn’t likely with Embiid scheduled back. Still, Saric is the only one at the top of this position that I think can even come close to value tonight uniless you use LeBron at PF>

Harrison Barnes ($6,700): Barnes racked up 38 DraftKings points on the Suns in the first meeting. He had a rough week from a matchup standpoint last week, but expect Barnes to get back on track here. Barnes may not hit 40, but I will be surprised if he doesn’t get close.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($6,100): The return of Turner didn’t hurt Sabonis at all. Sabonis now has four straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points and five of the last six. His role on the Pacers seems to be solidified going forward. This should be a tougher matchup against Memphis, but with all of the injuries, it isn’t anymore. Sabonis should have no issues hitting 30 again.

Bobby Portis ($5,900): Just because Mirotic is still a Bull doesn’t mean that he will be by tipoff. Markkanen is out, so it is very likely that Portis starts this game. Portis has done very well when given the chance this year, including a 30.75 DraftKings point game against Portland in just 17 minutes earlier this season. Portis is going to be highly owned, but I don’t care. He will be worth it.

James Johnson ($5,500): Johnson did pretty well against the Cavs in the first meeting, but has far more potential tonight with Kevin Love out of the picture. Johnson doesn’t seem to have as large of a role on this offense as he used to, but the Heat wont be able to help but attack this froncourt. I see a strong night from Johnson here.

Dark Horses:

Jarell Martin ($4,900): Martin has six straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. He has performed well with Green out, but Martin does lack any real upside. This is a good matchup for Martin and the Grizzlies, but I doubt that he goes above 30.

Ed Davis ($4,600): Fade Davis at your own risk. Davis has five straight games of more than 7x value. I dare you to find that anywhere else. Keep riding Davis until the wheels fall off.

Bam Adebayo ($3,800): Crowder did very little as a starter earlier this year, so I would rather use Adebayo against him. Bam put up 31.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He could have an even better night tonight with Kevin Love out. Whatever the case, Bam is priced to buy in this matchup.

My pick: Portis(PF), Davis(F); Portis(PF), Davis(F)

CHARLOTTE, NC – JANUARY 13: Dwight Howard #12 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during their game at Spectrum Center on January 13, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,400): Embiid has the potential to have one of the biggest games of his career in this one. The Nets are awful in the paint, and have been taken advantage of by every center they have faced for much of this calendar year. I’m trying not to be too optimistic about this, but wow. This is a dream matchup for Embiid.

Dwight Howard ($9,400): Howard has 96 DraftKings points in the first two meetings with Atlanta. There is nothing that says that the Hawks can handle him here either. Howard has been outstanding in January. He is going to close the month with a bang!

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($8,600): Whiteside assaulted Cleveland for 35.5 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes in the first meeting. The Heat have no reason to limit his minutes here unless it’s a blowout. I’ve mentioned that the Cavs are going to be weakened on the inside without Love. Expect Whiteside to take full advantage of this.

Marc Gasol ($8,300): It has been a long time since I’ve trusted Gasol in a lineup. For the most part, he has struggled mightily as the team has fallen apart around him due to injury. However, Gasol deserves mentioning here. Gasol dominated the Pacers for 70.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Don’t expect a repeat performance tonight. I want to believe in Gasol, but I don’t know that I can.

Julius Randle ($6,600): Randle has been chewing up opponents lately, even in somewhat limited minutes. Orlando is still weak on the interior. They can’t decide who needs to replace Vucevic, so they are running anyone 6′ 10″ or taller wearing their uniform in there. This is a good opportunity for Randle to have another strong game.

Dark Horses:

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,000): This is a tough one since Nurkic has only played 30 minutes or more three times this month. For some reason, Portland is limiting his minutes. The Blazers likely will need Nurkic to bang around with Sideshow Bob, but nothing is certain these days. Nurkic put up 43.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Chicago, but he also played 37 minutes. There is no guarantee that that will happen here.

Frank Kaminsky ($4,400): With Marvin Williams out, the consensus is that Frank the Tank will start in his stead. Kaminsky has done pretty well when starting this season. He put up 35 DraftKings points when starting against the Hawks earlier this season. However, he was ineffective against them in 26 minutes five days ago. There is potential here, but it is not without risk.

Jahlil Okafor ($3,600): Allen got the start last night, but it was Okafor that was the better player. Okafor racked up 25.75 DraftKings points in 25 minutes. He is nearing closer to taking that starting job. It could happen as soon as tonight. Even if it doesn’t, Okafor is still a really good value at this price.

My pick: Embiid(C), Okafor(UTIL); Howard(C), Okafor(UTIL)

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