Top-12 fantasy baseball outfield prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the outfield prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
Last season, Aaron Judge was expected to start the year as the Yankees’ right fielder, so the path to regular playing time was clear. Despite this, he was ranked 10th best among fantasy baseball outfield prospects. It was obvious that he would hit, but I suggested that he was more Chris Carter than Giancarlo Stanton.
Although I was not alone in underestimating the impact the rookie would make, it demonstrates how easy it is for the very top prospects to be overrated while undervaluing the potential of the hitters at the back-end of the top-12, or even those that just missed the cut.
Last season, Andrew Benintendi was the No.1 outfield prospect, and he turned into an instant fantasy stud with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, a feat only achieved by nine players last season. And he could get even better in 2018.
Second and third on the list were Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. Frazier saw just 39 games of Major League action, while Meadows is still awaiting his MLB debut. At the start of the season, it would have been difficult to find someone who would trade you either Frazier or Meadows for Judge. Now you would be foolish to accept a trade for both in exchange for the Yankees’ slugger.
The outfield position is deep. This article features nearly 20 hitters that we expect to have an impact in fantasy baseball this season.
There will be players high in the top-12 who don’t get the call to the majors, while others who didn’t make the list, will find that injuries, trades or Spring Training performances, opens up the avenue for playing time ahead of them.
Due to a large number of outfielders with close proximity to the majors, monitoring Spring Training is essential this year.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
These outfield prospects are unlikely to have fantasy value this season but are important players to know for dynasty leagues.
Yusniel Diaz (OF-LAD)
Expensive Cuban signee with exciting 20/20 potential. He is only 21-years-old with a ton of raw talent. If they develop, he could have a significant impact in fantasy in a year or two. ETA 2019.
Luis Robert (OF-CWS)
Expensive signing from Cuba, Luis Robert hit .310 with 1.027 OPS in the Dominican Summer League last season. He will get his first taste of U.S. action in Spring Training but he is only 20-years-old so don’t expect him to offer fantasy value until 2020. ETA 2020.
Juan Soto (OF-WAS)
Cuban power hitter with All-Star potential. The 19-year-old was injured for the majority of last year, but he has prospect evaluators shaking with excitement. He has game-changing potential and must be owned in dynasty leagues. ETA 2020.
Taylor Trammell (OF-CIN)
Exciting, speedy outfielder from the first round of the 2016 draft. Stole 41 bases with 13 home runs and 71 walks in Single-A last season. There is a wide variance of outcomes but he could be a superstar. ETA 2020.
Jo Adell (OF-LAA)
The Angels’ first-round pick from 2017 hit .325 in Rookie ball with five home runs and eight stolen bases. At 18-years-old, he is many years from reaching the majors, but he looks like a high-ceiling prospect. ETA 2021.
Kyle Lewis (OF-SEA)
The Mariners’ top prospect suffered a horrific knee injury, which set back his development by more than one year, so the 22-year-old will not see the majors this season.
After the Mariners drafted Lewis 11th in the 2016 draft, Jim Callis, the prospect expert for MLB.com commented:
"“What a steal for the Mariners. If I owned the No. 1 pick in this Draft, I would have taken Lewis there. I think it’s the best combination of ceiling and floor in this Draft”"
The delayed start to his career and the inevitable fall in prospect lists present a buy-low opportunity. ETA 2019.
Estevan Florial (OF-NYY)
The Haitian left-hander hit 13 home runs with 23 stolen bases in the lower minors with .372 OBP to enthuse prospect hounds. High ceiling/low floor 20-year-old with exciting power/speed potential. ETA 2020.
Yordan Alvarez (OF-HOU)
20-year-old Cuban slashed .304/.379/.481 in his first full year in the minors. The powerful left-hander needs to be owned in all dynasty leagues. He could be a top-10 prospect within two years, but probably at first base. ETA 2019.
Monte Harrison (OF-MIA)
The power-speed combination of 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases in Single-A will help the 22-year-old jump up prospect lists. The skills are still raw, but the potential is exciting for his new start in Miami. ETA 2021.
Jesus Sanchez (OF-TB)
The Dominican hit .305 with 15 home runs and seven stolen bases in 475 at-bats in Single-A. He has enticing power-speed potential, but he is only 20-years-old, so the variance of outcomes is great. ETA 2021.
Leodys Taveras (OF-TEX)
The 19-year-old hit .249 with .672 OPS last season in Single-A. He was one of the youngest hitters in the league, and the stats do not reflect his talents. He might be the best prospect in the Rangers’ system but due to his underwhelming 2017 stats, he could be available as a buy-low candidate. ETA 2020.
Heliot Ramos (OF-SF)
If you are in for the long-game, then 18-year-old Heliot Ramos could be your man. He is four years from the majors, but his power-speed combination lets you dream of 30/30 potential. ETA 2021.
Jahmai Jones (OF-LAA)
Notching 14 home runs and 27 stolen bases between Low and High-A as a 19-year-old was an impressive season for the second-rounder from the 2015 draft. High reward pick in dynasty leagues. ETA 2020.
Brent Rooker (OF-MIN)
23-year-old taken by the Twins with the 35th pick of the 2017 draft. He hit 18 home runs with .930 OPS between Rookie ball and High-A. Could feasibly reach the majors in 2019 but don’t invest too much. ETA 2019.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
If everything falls right, these outfield prospects could be in the majors this season.
Austin Meadows (OF-PIT)
It’s something when a 22-year-old is written off as a failure. Austin Meadows has appeared high on prospect lists since he was taken with the ninth pick in the 2013 draft.
Injuries have continually hampered his development (he has only averaged 82 games over the last two seasons), and when opportunities have been presented, Meadows has failed to capitalize on them.
The departure of Andrew McCutchen to the Giants creates an opening in the Pirates’ outfield for 2018. Meadows has name recognition, but his stock has plummeted in the eyes of the fantasy world. This creates an opportunity to draft Meadows at a good value.
No-one argues that he has disappointed over the last two seasons, but in these 164 games, he hit .265 with 16 home runs, 45 doubles, 86 RBI, 99 runs, and 28 stolen bases. That level of production works in all formats.
The upside is that Meadows remains healthy for a full season and becomes a legitimate 20/20 fantasy outfielder. The downside is another hamstring injury. ETA 2018.
Anthony Alford (OF-TOR)
The former top-100 prospect has the tools over which prospect evaluators drawl. The potential for high contact rates, plus power and game-changing speed could result in a 20 home run, 40 stolen base fantasy superstar. The ceiling is high, but the floor isn’t. If the power does not develop, he might be nothing more than a fourth outfielder.
In 245 at-bats in Double-A last year, Alford hit .310 with five home runs, 24 RBI, 41 runs and 18 stolen bases. A bone fracture in his hand curtailed his promotion to the majors which lasted just eight at-bats.
With the additions of Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson, to compete with Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera and Dalton Pompey for playing time in the outfield spots not occupied by Kevin Pillar, the Blue Jays have a wealth of options at their disposal.
Alford hit .352 with two home runs and eight stolen bases in the Mexican Pacific Winter League and will be given the opportunity to shine in Spring Training, but it would not be surprising if his Major League action in 2018 is limited to September. ETA 2018.
Dustin Fowler (OF-OAK)
The left-hander hit the sports headlines when he sustained a horrific season-ending injury in his MLB debut for the Yankees. He hit the headlines again when he was part of the package sent by New York in exchange for Sonny Gray.
Before the injury, Fowler tore up Triple-A with a slash line of .293/.329/.542 in 70 games with 13 home runs, 13 stolen bases, 49 runs and 43 RBI.
Unless there are long-term effects from the knee injury, Fowler offers five-category production with 20/20 fantasy All-Star potential.
The Athletics’ outfield is a work-in-progress with Stephen Piscotty, the odd man out in St Louis, as the only player guaranteed a spot. If Fowler performs in Spring Training, 2018 could be a special year. ETA 2018.
THREE MORE OUTFIELD PROSPECTS THAT JUST MISSED THE CUT
If everything falls right, these outfield prospects could be in the majors this season.
Harrison Bader (OF-STL)
The third-rounder from the 2015 draft slashed .283/.347/.469 with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 123 games in Triple-A. He was rewarded with a promotion to the majors where he hit three home runs with .659 OPS in 85 at-bats.
The 23-year-old looks to have the potential as a perennial 20/20 fantasy contributor but will need to address the poor plate discipline and high strikeouts, otherwise, he may never be more than a fourth outfielder.
With Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham and Dexter Fowler, the Cardinals’ outfield has no openings but Bader’s enthusiasm and power potential from the bench could get him a position on the Opening Day roster. ETA 2018
Christin Stewart (OF-DET)
The 24-year-old is a powerful slugger with the potential to lead the Tigers in home runs and strikeouts if he gets the opportunity in 2018.
Last year, in a full season in Double-A, the left-hander hit .256 with 28 home runs and 86 RBI. This followed his 30-homer season in 2016 between High-A and Double-A. He has a 10% walk rate and strikes out 25% of the time.
Questions surround his defensive abilities but with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez occupying first base and DH, the only position open for Stewart is left field. The rebuilding Tigers teams could give Stewart a shot in the outfield if he gets off to a hot start in the minors. As for Stewart’s potential, remember Aaron Judge was a powerful, high-strikeout slugger in the minors. ETA 2018.
Brett Phillips (OF-MIL)
The 23-year-old posted .944 OPS in Triple-A last season. Although Colorado Springs in the PCL is a hitter-friendly environment,19 home runs, 10 triples and 23 doubles is still an impressive return. He held his own in three stints in the majors, improving with each one, and finishing with .851 OPS in September.
The left-hander will battle for a spot in the overcrowded Brewers’ outfield, but his chances of an Opening Day roster spot were almost eliminated with the acquisitions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. ETA 2018.
NUMBER 12
JORDAN LUPLOW (OF-PIT)
Andrew McCutchen’s departure opens up the opportunity for Jordan Luplow. The right-hander hit .302 with .907 OPS over 117 games in the minors with 23 home runs, 74 runs, 56 RBI and five stolen bases. He walked 45 times to 71 strikeouts.
Luplow experienced his third different level of the season with a 78 at-bat stint in the majors, hitting .205 with three home runs.
The former third-rounder from the 2014 draft will battle in Spring Training with Adam Frazier and long-term prospect Austin Meadows for the outfield spot not occupied by Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco. Luplow does not possess the same prospect reputation as the other players on this list, but there is the opening for substantial playing time. ETA 2018.
NUMBER 11
Chris Shaw (OF-SF)
Despite the addition of Andrew McCutchen, the Giants’ outfield needs a boost of power, and Chris Shaw looks like the best slugger in their system. They finished last in home runs last season, nearly 100 behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, their NL West rivals.
The 24-year-old slashed .292/.346/.525 with 24 home runs and 35 doubles between Double-A and Triple-A last season. The left-hander strikes out too much but expect the 29% from his first taste of Triple-A to normalize closer to 20% this year.
Shaw will likely start the season in Triple-A but if he rakes, expect the left-hander up in the majors sooner rather than later. The Giants want to capitalize on this window to win with Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner.
As with all players in this top-12 list, he needs to be owned in dynasty leagues. For single-season formats, you can avoid him on draft day unless his Spring Training production secures a spot in the Giants’ outfield for Opening Day. ETA 2018.
NUMBER 10
Tyler O’Neill (OF-STL)
The Canadian slugger is blocked. Last season, the Cardinals’ outfield started with an impenetrable trio of Dexter Fowler, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty. Tommy Pham didn’t even break camp yet finished the season as their best player. Arguably the outfield in St Louis is even stronger this season, but Tyler O’Neill is just one injury away from serious Rookie of the Year consideration.
A veteran of 101 home runs in the minors, O’Neill has produced three straight seasons of powerful production, averaging 29 home runs and 95 RBI.
In 130 games in Triple-A last season, the 22-year-old hit 31 home runs with 92 RBI, 26 doubles, 77 runs and he also swiped 14 bags. The only thing that stops O’Neill from five-category production is his batting average. He hit .246 last season with 151 strikeouts to 51 walks.
O’Neill should be owned in all dynasty leagues, but you probably do not need to draft him in single-season formats unless you have a very deep bench. Make sure you grab him as soon as there is a change in the Cardinals’ outfield.
NUMBER NINE
Alex Verdugo (OF-LAD)
The 21-year-old impressively walked more times than he struck out in Triple-A last season. The skill is even more impressive given that he was one of the five youngest players in the Pacific Coast League.
His value is beyond the box score. In 495 plate appearances, the former second-rounder hit .314 with six home runs, 27 doubles, three triples and nine stolen bases. Until greater power develops, Verdugo will have more value in points leagues, where his walks and doubles are rewarded.
Despite the continuing concerns over Verdugo’s immature attitude, the left-hander was promoted to the majors, where he went 4-for-23 with one home run.
The Dodgers outfield is competitive, so expect Verdugo to start the season back in Triple-A. There is concern that his home run power will not materialize but he is still so young, the potential of him becoming a stud fantasy outfielder is real, just maybe not in 2018.
NUMBER EIGHT
Kyle Tucker (OF-HOU)
The former first-round pick from the 2015 draft would be a more exciting fantasy prospect if he played for another team but the outfield in Houston is stacked. George Springer is not moving from center field, and Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher and Jake Marisnick are vying for playing time in the corner outfield positions.
Tucker slashed .274/.346/.528 across 120 games in High-A and Double-A last season, with 70 runs, 25 home runs, 90 RBI and 21 stolen bases. He is a fantasy superstar-in-waiting.
If injuries or trades open up playing time for the 21-year-old, he has significant fantasy value this season. Otherwise, a mid/late season call-up is likely. Obviously, he must be owned in dynasty leagues.
NUMBER SEVEN
Austin Hays (OF-BAL)
The 22-year-old slipped to the third round of the 2016 draft and was almost ignored by all prospect lists last preseason.
In 523 at-bats between High-A and Double-A, Hays hit .329 with .958 OPS. He destroyed Minor League pitching with 32 home runs and 32 doubles, scoring 81 runs with 95 RBI as he assembled one of the most impressive campaigns of 2017.
In recognition of his progression, the Orioles promoted Hays to his third level of the season when he appeared in 20 games in the majors, hitting .217 with one home run.
Whether the Orioles are contenders or rebuilders, Hays has the inside track for the Opening Day right field job. The opportunity for playing time and the offensive breakout makes Hays a player you will want to draft, regardless of the format. Given his unheralded prospect reputation, he should be available as a late draft pick.
NUMBER SIX
Jesse Winker (OF-CIN)
The patience at the plate demonstrated by the left fielder over five years in the minors (13% walk rate to 15% strikeout rate) sets him up to become a points/OBP league superstar.
Hindered by multiple wrist injuries, the 24-year-old had failed to produce any power for two years in the minors before exploding in the majors last season.
Winker was enjoying a typical Winker season hitting .314 with .395 OBP, 22 doubles, two home runs and 38 walks to 46 strikeouts in 299 at-bats in Triple-A. No-one foresaw the left-hander slugging .529 with seven home runs in 47 games in the majors.
Unless they trade Billy Hamilton, the Reds have surplus outfield options which could affect Winker’s fantasy value in 2018. It is fine to be wary of his power outburst, considering he only hit five home runs in the minors over the last two years, but do not underrate his outstanding eye and contact skills.
NUMBERS FIVE
Eloy Jimenez (OF-CWS)
The Dominican is an undisputed top-5 prospect. He is likely to be already owned in every dynasty leagues but should you invest in him in single-season formats? He possesses game-changing power, and in 89 games between High-A and Double-A, the 21-year-old slashed .312/.379/.568 with 19 home runs and 22 doubles.
Although his power is mainly to the pull side, and he benefited from .429 BABIP and 23% HR/FB rate, as he matures, Jimenez is expected to develop into one of the most feared power hitters in the game.
There is no doubt that his ceiling is very high, but unless the White Sox become surprising contenders this year, it is difficult to see him having much fantasy impact this season before September. Despite that, he makes No.5 on the list as elite talent has a way of finding playing time.
NUMBER FOUR
Victor Robles (OF-WAS)
There is a risk that because of his defensive prowess, Victor Robles becomes a more valuable player in real life than in fantasy.
The right-hander enthralls prospect hounds with his power/speed combo and the potential for 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
In 114 games between High-A and Double-A, Robles slashed .300/.382/.493 with 10 home runs, 37 doubles, and 27 stolen bases. Impressively, considering his youthfulness, the Dominican only had a strikeout rate of 14%.
His speed is undeniable; he even legged out two triples in his 13 game stint in the majors last year. We all know that stolen bases have become more scarce, so don’t underestimate his value, even if the home run totals only just creep into double-digits.
The Washington Post reported Robles will start in Triple-A, with Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin holding down center field.
It is unlikely there are any dynasty leagues where Robles is unowned. In single-season formats, it is easy to see him failing to return value for his draft position. He is immensely talented and there will be people in every league happy to reach for him, but Robles is only 20-years-old and a few months of adjustment to the majors should not be unexpected.
NUMBER THREE
Lewis Brinson (OF-MIA)
In a season when we witnessed astounding production by rookies, Lewis Brinson failed to make the transition from minors to majors.
The 23-year-old destroyed Triple-A pitching for the second straight season, hitting .331 with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He got on-base at a rate of .400 and looks like a superstar in the making.
Unfortunately, his stay in the majors was short and the results disappointing. In 47 at-bats, the right-hander hit just .106 with two home runs and one stolen base.
He is an interesting prospect for the 2018 season. He still carries the name recognition of a top prospect, but this is tarnished slightly by the two stints in the majors. The move to Miami improves his playing time opportunities, and although the supporting cast is inferior, Brinson could have fantasy impact from Opening Day.
NUMBER TWO
Willie Calhoun (OF-TEX)
Flags fly forever, and in their pursuit of the World Series, the Dodgers paid a high price in the form of Willie Calhoun for a two-month rental of Yu Darvish.
It is easy to be fooled by power numbers set in the Pacific Coast League, but as a 22-year-old Willie Calhoun was one of only two players to hit more than 30 home runs. He posted .927 OPS with 42 walks to 61 strikeouts. The guy has power.
In his first taste of the majors, Calhoun slashed .265/.324/.353 with one home run over 13 games and is expected to start the season as the Rangers’ left fielder, so unlike many of the names on this list, the opportunity for 500 at-bats is realistic.
Unfortunately, from the fantasy viewpoint, his value took a hit when he was moved from second base to the outfield, and his lack of athleticism could eventually push him to DH.
Calhoun has mixed-league appeal and you could get 30 homers from a late-round pick.
NUMBER ONE
Ronald Acuna (OF-ATL)
Just in case the hype surrounding the 20-year-old was not already out of control, he led the Arizona Fall League with seven homes runs and was awarded the MVP, which capped a sensational 2017. The Venezuelan entered the year as the No.67 prospect according to Baseball America and finished it as arguably the best player in the minor leagues. In case you are wondering, Kyle Lewis is this year’s No.67 prospect. Perhaps a similar rise to stardom is possible for him.
Acuna started the year with .814 OPS and 14 stolen bases in 28 games in High-A, before .895 OPS, nine home runs, 14 doubles and 19 stolen bases in 57 games in Double-A. As a 19-year-old, he finished the season with 54 games in Triple-A, where he posted .940 OPS with another nine home runs, 14 doubles and a further 11 stolen bases.
The Braves’ depth chart shows Acuna as the Opening Day right-fielder in Atlanta. The job is his to win or lose in Spring Training. Even if he fails to break camp, there is an expectation that he will be up with the Braves in mid-April, by which time the team will have secured an extra year of control.
It is difficult not to get caught up with enthusiasm of fantasy baseball’s next great superstar, but while the rest of the fantasy baseball world drawls over Acuna’s five-category potential, it would be remiss of us not to mention that he was caught stealing 31% of the time. He has only had 221 at-bats above Double-A, and the .344 AVG in Triple-A was fueled by .404 BABIP. Both will fall in 2018.
Although Acuna possesses a 25.5% strikeout rate in the minors, he improved with each new level he reached. If you opt to draft the Venezuelan, be prepared for some struggles; especially with his aggressive approach at the plate and his first experience of elite breaking balls.
Acuna is the most exciting outfield prospect and should be drafted in all leagues, regardless of size or format.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
All of the outfielders in the top-12, plus the players that just missed the cut, have the potential to be 2018’s Benintendi. Acuna looks like the part of those “cant-miss” prospects, but so often the most eagerly anticipated arrivals don’t produce at the expected level on Day 1. Remember that Mike Trout hit .220 with .672 OPS in his first stint in the majors.