DraftKings NBA picks February 1: Ride Pistons/Grizzlies value

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 25: Terry Rozier #12 of the Boston Celtics dunks during the second quarter of the game against the Washington Wizards at TD Garden on December 25, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks February 1: Ride Pistons/Grizzlies value

We are down to five games tonight. There is still plenty of top end value here, and lots of value so long as Blake Griffin isn’t on the court with his new team. Even if he is, you still have the Grizzlies to ride to value. You can pay up for any studs you want!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,300): Westbrook struggled with his shot again in a loss to the Wall-less Wizards. As if that isn’t bad enough, Westbrook has only had 99.75 DraftKings points in two games against Denver this season. However, this is a short slate with Westbrook on it yet again. You know the drill. He is one of a handful that could get you 50, and one of two on this slate that can top 60 or better. You have a pay a premium for that, even if Westbrook is struggling some.

Kyle Lowry ($7,300): Lowry has struggled in both games against the Wizards this season, but there is a lot of potential here with John Wall out. Westbrook struggled against them on Tuesday though, so this is not a sure thing. Lowry has put up solid numbers lately, but not like the spectacular ones that he was putting up when the calendar flipped. Lowry should bust out tonight without Wall in play.

Honorable Mention:

Dejounte Murray ($5,900): I like this matchup more if Chris Paul is held out, but Murray’s price still isn’t to the point that I would sit him here. Murray still has at least 5x value in every game as a starter, his lowest output being 26.5 DraftKings points. That is a very nice floor to build from, and Murray has good upside. He is one of my favorites in the middle tier tonight.

Jamal Murray ($5,700): This matchup with the Thunder is not a very good one, but Murray has been on a roll lately. He has averaged 37.4 DraftKings points per game over the last six contests. So even though he has to tangle with Westbrook here, I still see Murray hitting 5x value. The other Murray has more upside though due to the matchup.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,300): It seems likely that Eric Bledsoe is going to be out tonight. If he is, Brodgon would be the one most likely to start at the point. Brogdon is seeing significant minutes in the backcourt anyway lately, but he is obviously more as a starter. We saw Brogdon put up good numbers near the end of his rookie season last year while starting at the point. This is also a great matchup for Brodgon. Assuming he starts, I see his floor at 6x value tonight.

Tomas Satoransky ($4,600): This is not the same as when Wall was out earlier this year. The Wizards split the minutes between Satoransky and Frazier almost evenly. That is not happening this time around. Satoransky has outplayed Frazier almost 2-1 in minutes, so the production has gone the same way. Of course, this could change at any time, but it appears as though Satoransky will keep seeing big minutes until he struggles. If you are chasing value here, Satoransky is the place to go for now.

Andrew Harrison ($4,300): Harrison played well against the Pacers last night, tallying 25.25 DraftKings points. He should see similar run tonight with Tyreke Evans’s run in Memphis over. Harrison is a bargain at this price against a Detroit team that is almost as thin as Memphis is.

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Satoransky(G), Harrison(UTIL); Lowry(PG), D. Murray(G)

DALLAS, TX – JANUARY 24: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts after scoring against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on January 24, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,400): This is not an easy matchup for Harden, but I’m not fading him after his Cousins-like effort on Tuesday. He and Westbrook are the only two that can clear 50 tonight. If pressed, I trust Harden to do that more than I would Westbrook. And yes, that is regardless of the status of Chris Paul. Harden is the guy to have if you are a big spender tonight. In fact, you could probably use both if you really wanted to.

Jimmy Butler ($8,600): Butler has not been able to hit value for this price since his return, but he has still been over 39 DraftKings points in every game. That is a strong enough floor to use him on a short slate. When you add in the fact that the Bucks will likely be a little short in the frontcourt and Brogdon will likely draw Teague, I like this pick even more.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($8,400): Beal is the Alpha and the Omega of the Washington offense right now. His price hasn’t been fully adjusted to his new usage rate yet, and he put up 87.75 DraftKings points in two games against Toronto with Wall in the lineup. I am more of an advocate of Beal than Butler tonight. Just be aware that ownership is going to be much higher on Beal, and he may not outscore Butler my as much as you may think.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,800): On paper this doesn’t look like a good matchup. The Wizards are in the top five against opposing 2 guards. However, DeRozan has torched the Wizards for 92.5 DraftKings points in the first two games this season. The ownership on DeRozan could be under 10%, and his upside is decent considering his past success against Washington.

Gary Harris ($5,800): No matter the opponent, Harris has been one of the most consistent performers around in the month of January. Harris has only been under 24 DraftKings points once all month. He has also been above 5x value a dozen times. Harris has 51.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this season. That would put him a shade under value, but considering the way Harris has been playing, I think he still hits 5x value.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Bullock ($5,000): See also: Johnson, Stanley. Bullock was at 6x value on Tuesday night, which pales in comparison to Johnson’s performance. Still, if Griffin doesn’t suit up, I want both of them in my lineup again. There could be huge value in the Pistons again!

Wayne Selden ($4,000): Selden poured in 22 points last night with Tyreke out of the rotation. That means that Selden hit value in points alone! That wasn’t even counting the four rebounds, two assists, two steals, a block, and six threes that he hit. Selden looks like a fantastic value again tonight!

My pick: Harden(SG); Beal(SG), Selden(UTIL)

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 04: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder reacts to his three pointer during a 127-117 win over the LA Clippers at Staples Center on January 4, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($7,500): This is another one that looks better on paper than it did in the two actual games earlier this year. George only mustered 60.5 DraftKings points in the first two games against Denver combined. The stats say that this is a good matchup, and it may well be, but George needs to shoot better than 33% from the field against the Nuggets. Judging by how George is playing lately, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Otto Porter ($6,600): Porter seems to have shed his January tailspin, putting up 99.75 DraftKings points in the last three games. That doesn’t leave him at value just yet, but it’s a lot closer than it was. Porter has been decent against Toronto this season, putting up 61.5 DraftKings points on them in the two games. That’s good enough on this small of a slate.

Honorable Mention:

Stanley Johnson ($5,400): Johnson was a monster with Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley out of the picture on Tuesday. He racked up 50.5 DraftKings points on Cleveland. Now, just the fact that it was Cleveland likely contributed in part to that high of a total, but I almost hope Blake isn’t in uniform tonight. I want to cash in on the Pistons value plays once again against a depleted Memphis squad!

Trey Lyles ($5,200): Lyles racked up 32 DraftKings points on the Thunder in just 25 minutes in the first game he played against them. If Lyles matches up with Melo again, he should have no problem doing that sort of damage again. Lyles is still a sound value play with Paul Millsap on the shelf.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Anderson ($5,100): I wish we knew how much Pop was going to use Anderson. I like him a lot if he is in there, especially with Trevor Ariza still out for Houston. Anderson played 36 minutes against Denver on Tuesday. If he does that again, he is going to destroy value with Ariza out. Keep an eye on the starting lineup and hope for the best!

Dillon Brooks ($4,400): The youngster out of Oregon logged 40 minutes last night for the depleted Grizzlies. You can’t help but hit value if you are playing that many minutes. I doubt that Memphis will be able to limit him tonight either. It will be all hands on deck again for the Grizz, which along with Detroit, loads this slate with value plays!

My pick: Johnson(SF); Johnson(SF), Lyles(F)

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 14: LaMarcus Aldridge #12 of the San Antonio Spurs in the second half at American Airlines Center on November 14, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,700): Power forward is a black hole tonight. Giannis only put up 38.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Minnesota in 40 minutes, so I think he’s overpriced. Griffin likely wont play, but if he does, he is the clear top of this heap. Aldridge has a terrible matchup with a Houston team that has hogtied him so far this year. Aldridge only had 28.5 DraftKings points on 8-21 from the floor against the Rockets in that one. Do you buck the trend with Kawhi still out? He was in that first game also!

Markieff Morris ($6,200): Morris has 109.5 DraftKings points over his last three games. He has finally taken over in Washington on a team that needs some help with John Wall out again. Morris is a solid mid tier play again tonight with plenty of upside for a GPP roster slot.

Honorable Mention:

Carmelo Anthony ($5,800): The matchup is on his side against his former team, but Anthony only has 55.75 DraftKings points in the first two games against Denver. Still, Anthony is cheap enough to use, and it only takes him 28 DraftKings points for 5x value. Melo has enough upside for a GPP dart throw tonight.

Jarell Martin ($4,700): I’m going out on a short limb here and saying that JaMychal Green will be out again. That would mean another start for Martin, who saw his streak of 20+ DraftKings points games end at six last night. If Green is out again, Martin likely starts a new streak against Detroit so long as Blake Griffin isn’t in uniform.

Dark Horses:

Anthony Tolliver ($4,600): Truth be told, I like Tolliver a lot more than Martin here. Again, with the caveat that Blake doesn’t play. Tolliver picked up 38.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday. He had 33.75 on Sunday even with Tobias Harris in the lineup. Tolliver stands to lose the most from the Griffin acquisition. Does he get one more night to shine before Griffin arrives?

Ivan Rabb ($3,500): Rabb has actually outplayed Martin in the last couple of games. While I don’t think that Memphis will start Rabb, I do think that they will go to him earlier and more often off the bench. If Green is out again, I think I like Rabb for my token Memphis frontcourt value pick.

My pick: Tolliver(PF), Rabb(F); Morris(PF)

CHICAGO, IL – JANUARY 13: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons rebounds over Bobby Portis #5 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on January 13, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bulls defeated the Pistons 107-105. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($9,400): Yes, Gasol is a tough defender, but Drummond’s usage was enormous on Tuesday night. If Detroit doesn’t get any of their pieces in uniform yet, Drummond is still a strong play. He isn’t going to drop 70 like he did on Tuesday, but I could see Drummond still picking up a 50 spot on Gasol.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700): Milwaukee still struggles to contain opposing centers, and last I checked, Towns is still one of the best. Even if the emergence of Jimmy Butler doesn’t have him performing like it on a daily basis in DFS. This is a really good matchup for Towns here, and his price has slipped to the point where value is pretty easy (for him) to get to. 43.5 DraftKings points is a mark that Towns has hit in half of the last ten games. Not all of them were great matchups. This one certainly is.

Honorable Mention:

Marc Gasol ($7,600): Gasol predictably saw his numbers go up with Evans out of the lineup. That is going to happen from here on out unless Memphis gets another piece ready to produce now for Evans in the trade market. I think Gasol could come close to Drummond’s output at about 25% less cost. Don’t be surprised if Gasol has another big night.

Clint Capela ($6,800): The elder Gasol is going to have all kinds of problems trying to contain this load. Capela has turned into a double-double machine inside for the running Rockets. They are going to have issues trying to run their fast paced offense against the tortoise-like Spurs. That could actually play to Capela’s advantage as they may have to dump it inside more often.

Dark Horses:

John Henson ($4,900): Henson has topped 5x value in each of the last five games, and seven of the last eight. He is in a great position to do so again against Towns. Towns is not a great defender, and considering Henson only needs 24.5 DraftKings points to hit value, he is a strong value play in the middle tonight.

Marcin Gortat ($4,600): This would take an extreme leap of faith, or an extreme bout of insanity, to make this pick. Gortat has not hit value since January 13^th, and that was against the horrid Nets interior. However, Gortat has managed to put up 69.5 DraftKings points in the two games against Toronto this season. The track record is here if you have the stomach to roll Gorat out there tonight.

My pick: Gortat(C), Gasol(C)

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