Nikola Mirotic’s arrival on the New Orleans Pelicans will have numerous ripple effects for fantasy basketball owners.
Two days after trade talks neared the finish line before breaking down, the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans came to terms Thursday on a deal that sent Nikola Mirotic and a 2018 second-round pick to the Big Easy in exchange for a top-five-protected 2018 first-round pick, Omer Asik, Tony Allen and Jameer Nelson, according to ESPN.com’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The Bulls will also have the right to swap 2021 second-round picks with New Orleans as part of the deal.
With DeMarcus Cousins having just suffered a season-ending Achilles tear a week ago, the Pelicans eagerly sought out replacements in advance of the NBA’s Feb. 8 trade deadline. Though Mirotic won’t put up the same type of well-rounded production that Cousins did prior to his injury, he’ll provide a much-needed boost to a New Orleans team that could have fallen into a death spiral sans Boogie.
What does the deal mean for fantasy basketball owners? Let’s dig in.
New Orleans Pelicans
In the wake of Cousins’ injury, the Pelicans shifted Dante Cunningham into their starting lineup to take his place. Once Mirotic gets up to speed in his new surroundings, though, he should have no trouble displacing the nine-year veteran.
During his 25 games with the Bulls this season, Mirotic poured in a career-high 16.8 points on 47.4 percent shooting, 6.4 rebounds, 2.8 triples and 1.6 assists in only 24.9 minutes, good for top-50 value on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues. While it’s fair to wonder whether he can replicate that type of production while playing alongside Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, his 3-point shooting ability should make him a valued member of New Orleans’ rotation. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he wound up playing more minutes with the Pelicans than he did with the Bulls.
Sans Cousins, New Orleans is likely to rely heavily upon a spread pick-and-roll attack around Davis and Rajon Rondo, with Mirotic, Holiday and E’Twaun Moore spotting up along the perimeter. That should enable Mirotic to continue flirting with top-50 value moving forward. If the Mirotic owner in your league is panicked over the trade, float a buy-low offer their way before he can quell their concerns upon his Pelicans debut.
One possible complicating factor in Mirotic’s rest-of-season upside is the Pelicans’ reported pursuit of Greg Monroe, per Wojnarowski. Monroe, who officially reached a buyout agreement with the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, is a New Orleans native who is reportedly making playing time a “major factor in his decision,” Wojnarowski reported. While the Boston Celtics can offer him more money than the Pelicans, the prospect of filling in as New Orleans’ starting center may be too appealing to turn down.
Even if Monroe joins the Pelicans, head coach Alvin Gentry should have little trouble dividing frontcourt minutes between him, Mirotic and Davis. Monroe’s arrival would slightly slice into Mirotic’s upside, but not to the point where he isn’t worth pursuing in fantasy leagues. If anything, use the Monroe reports as leverage for now—convince a fellow owner that Mirotic’s rest-of-season upside is trending downward, and after you acquire him, pray Monroe winds up taking Boston’s cash over New Orleans’ playing time.
Cunningham and Darius Miller go back to being waiver-wire fodder in the wake of this Mirotic deal, while Moore loses a bit of value as well. Holiday and Rondo, meanwhile, should continue cruising along at their respective rates, as both now have a knockdown 3-point shooter to help space the floor and rack up easy assist opportunities.
Chicago Bulls
With Mirotic no longer gobbling up frontcourt minutes, Lauri Markkanen and Bobby Portis are the biggest winners of this deal on Chicago’s end. Asik doesn’t figure to play many (if any) minutes, and whatever limited playing time he receives will come at the 5 rather than the 4. If anything, this trade appears to signal the Bulls’ intention to embrace tanking over the final two months of the season, which may mean Robin Lopez soon will follow Mirotic out the door.
Markkanen has already been flirting with top-50 value on a per-game basis in nine-category leagues, so you likely won’t be able to acquire him without paying through the nose. Instead, focus your efforts on Portis, who remains unowned in a vast majority of ESPN.com leagues. While Markkanen should stay as a fixture in Chicago’s starting lineup, Portis will now have far less competition for playing time off the bench.
In just 20.1 minutes per game this season, Portis is averaging 12.1 points on 47.6 percent shooting, 6.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.9 triples, giving him late-round value on a per-game basis in nine-category formats. On a per-36-minute basis, he’s churning out an eye-popping 21.3 points and 11.0 rebounds. While Portis isn’t likely to flirt with those numbers, even a minor uptick in playing time could result in a significant increase in fantasy output.
The Bulls reportedly plan on retaining Nelson for the time being, according to Wojnarowski, but those with Kris Dunn or Zach LaVine on their rosters shouldn’t fret. For all we know, Chicago may be keeping Nelson around solely until Dunn recovers from the concussion he suffered in mid-January. Even if the veteran remains with the Bulls for the rest of the season, head coach Fred Hoiberg should be under clear marching orders to leave him chained to the bench in favor of handing younger players more minutes.
All ownership percentages via ESPN.com. All average draft position info via FantasyPros. All rankings via Basketball Monster are based on nine-category leagues and are current heading into Thursday, Feb. 1.