DraftKings NBA picks February 3: Harden could dominate Cavs

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 25: Terry Rozier #12 of the Boston Celtics dunks during the second quarter of the game against the Washington Wizards at TD Garden on December 25, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks February 3: Harden could dominate Cavs

There are nine games today, but only eight are in the main DraftKings tournament. The new-look Bulls and the new-look Clippers are playing a matinee game, so all that value is gone. Where can we look for value to roster the Beard? Let’s take a look!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($10,100): Curry could get close to value here since Denver is weakest against guards. We saw Russ light them up on Thursday, and Curry put up 49.5 DraftKings points on Denver earlier this year. This should be another high scoring game, so there will be value to go around. The trick is finding it. Curry seems like a pretty safe pick, though he has a high floor and low ceiling.

Jrue Holiday ($7,600): Holiday’s role has increased some with Boogie out. What happens with Mirotic in the lineup tonight remains to be seen. However, the Timberwolves are weak on the perimeter, and Holiday is still the only real offensive threat from outside for the Pelicans. I think he still gets his shots, and his price is friendly tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Elfrid Payton ($6,600): Payton has abused the Wizards so far this season. In just two games, Payton has racked up 107.5 DraftKings points. Oh, and John Wall was on the court for those games. Payton could be in for another huge game with Wall watching this one in street clothes. I love the potential here tonight!

Goran Dragic ($6,500): Griffin can’t play point guard, so Detroit still hasn’t shored up all of their problems. Dragic exploited them for 84.75 DraftKings points in two games earlier this season. Galloway and Smith aren’t going to be able to stop Dragic here either, but he could have issues getting to the basket with Griffin and Drummond both in the way.

Jamal Murray ($6,500): Murray continues to light up the scoreboard for the Nuggets. He reminds me a lot of Booker, and his price is about $2,000 lower. Murray doesn’t shoot quite as much, but Denver has a lot of shooters, and Murray is doing a pretty good job of finding them. He is also one of the better pure shooters in the league. That gives him plenty of upside no matter the opponent.

Dark Horses:

De’Aaron Fox ($5,800): Fox is still prone to an off game here and there, but he has exceeded 5x value in five of his last six full games. Sacramento still runs about a half dozen guards out there per game, so his lack of big minutes does limit his value. However, Fox is a sure 30 minutes, and that has turned into a sure 30 DraftKings points lately. He put up 33 in the first meeting with Dallas, so this looks like a solid value spot for Fox.

Tomas Satoransky ($4,800): Satoransky has posted more than 5x value in each game filling in for Wall so far. That included tougher matchups against the Raptors and Thunder, and the Hawks are on picnic at the point either. Finally Satoransky gets to take on the second worst point defense in the league in Orlando. There is quite a bit of potential here. Don’t expect numbers like Wall unleashed on Orlando, but 7x value is certainly possible.

Tim Frazier ($3,800): There will be plenty of value to go around against Orlando tonight. Frazier still sees around 20 minutes per game backing up Satoransky, and he has done well against every second unit by the Thunder’s. It’s always risky playing a backup, but tonight it’s either Frazier or Shelvin Mack at this position. Both are backups in this game and could see plenty of chances.

My pick: Satoransky(PG); Payton(PG), Murray(G)

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 18: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards passes the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers at Capital One Arena on October 18, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,600): The Cavs had no chance at stopping Harden in the first meeting. Beard blasted them for 85.25 DraftKings points in that one. Sure, Paul was out, but I still think Harden is good for 60 or more tonight. The Cavs still don’t defend the perimeter well at all. If you are paying up anywhere tonight, Harden is the most likely to put up huge numbers.

Bradley Beal ($9,100): Beal has 99.5 DraftKings points over the last two games with Wall out. He is clearly the main offensive threat on this team right now. Beal has been average against Orlando this year, but he didn’t need to put up big numbers. Wall already did against the Magic. Now we get to see what Beal can do to them!

Honorable Mention:

Victor Oladipo ($8,400): Oladipo’s price is now down to a more manageable level. He racked up 49.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Philadelphia. Redick still isn’t much of a defender, so the potential is still here for Oladipo to put up another big night. His shot has been off a little lately, but he should get plenty of open looks here.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,000): Murray is still getting a grasp on defense in the NBA, so Mitchell has some decent upside here. The Spurs are good across the board, but with Parker and Ginobili not being the defensive stalwarts of yesteryear, opponents have been able to attack from the outside a little better. This looks good for Mitchell tonight. I wouldn’t call it a great matchup, but it’s good enough to feel comfortable using him.

Josh Richardson ($5,800): There are so many inconsistent players on the Heat that it’s nice to see Richardson’s consistency. Richardson has been between 25 and 35 DraftKings points in all but one game since the calendar hit 2018. Richardson is more useful in cash games because of this consistency, but there is solid value here as well.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Redick ($5,400): Redick lit up the Pacers for 47.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Redick didn’t have any issues with his shot in his first game back, so he should be good to go here. I’m not sure that Redick will have that big of a game again, but it’s certainly possible with the way he shoots and as many shots as he gets in this offense.

Shelvin Mack ($3,600): I don’t trust Ian Clark’s minutes with Mirotic coming in tonight, so I will move on to Mack. Mack has 76.25 DraftKings points over the last three games for this bargain price. I think that both the Washington and Orlando bench guards will have a chance to beat up on each other. Mack is going to take some of Payton’s thunder in this game. I think they both easily hit value tonight.

My pick: Harden(SG), Mitchell(G), Mack(UTIL); Redick(SG)

DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 30: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers leaves the floor after a 125-114 loss to the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 30, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan.(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,200): Harden overshadowed James by a large margin in the first game. I think that likely happens again. With Love out, James was supposed to take over and carry this team on his back. That has not come to fruition yet. In fact, James has not even come close to value since Love went down. Everything says to fade LeBron tonight, which likely means that he will have a huge game.

Ben Simmons ($8,300): Simmons had a big night against the Pacers in the first meeting, putting up 56.25 DraftKings points in that game. That said, Simmons has not hit value, even at this price, since January 24^th. Beyond that, That is the only time that Simmons has hit value in the last three weeks. The matchup is good, but there is a ton of risk here.

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter ($7,100): There is a lot of potential here for Porter, especially if Aaron Gordon sits again with his hip flexor strain. Porter’s January swoon appears to be over, with 85.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. On top of that, those games were against solid defenses in Toronto and Oklahoma City. The Thunder have struggled defensively since Roberson went down, so take that for what you will.

Robert Covington ($5,700): It’s really hard to use Covington right now. Covington hasn’t hit value even at this price in the last four games. This is a great matchup with the Pacers. One in which Covington dropped 36 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting. This price range makes Covington a really intriguing pick. We all know that he isn’t as bad as he has played lately.

Trey Lyles ($5,200): Lyles has filled in very well for Paul Millsap, but he has little upside. This makes Lyles better suited for cash games. In two games against the Warriors this season, Lyles has 55 DraftKings points. That would put up a touch above value, but with so many risky options at the position tonight, Lyles may be worth using in GPP formats as well.

Dark Horses:

Luc Mbah a Moute ($4,300): Mbah a Moute has been serviceable with Trevor Ariza out. He has virtually no upside since he is an afterthought on offense, but there isn’t the value out there that has been abundant over the last couple of days. Mbah a Moute is a solid option if you need to go really cheap, but anything over 20 is a bonus.

Justise Winslow ($3,700): Winslow has dominated the boards lately, snatching 22 rebounds in the last two games alone. He still isn’t much of an offensive force, but that may come as well. The bottom line is that Winslow is getting really good run right now, and his rebounding prowess makes him with using at this price.

My pick: Winslow(SF); Covington(SF)

WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dribbles the ball against the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on December 19, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,300): Davis has been putting up big numbers since Boogie went down, but I am having a little trouble with this one tonight. Mirotic is going to take some of Davis’s output, but just how much? To me, if you are going to spend this kind of money on a player, Harden is a much safer pick. There is too much unknown with how Mirotic will affect this offense right now.

Blake Griffin ($8,200): Griffin put up a 50 DraftKings points spot in his Detroit debut, and he had just met his teammates that day! The early returns are great for the Pistons. Whatever Miami is throwing out there, I don’t think they can stop Griffin. At this point, I would trust Griffin over Brow tonight. The point differential wont be enough to cover the $3,100 price differential.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($7,700): Green isn’t much of an offensive performer, so you kind of have to pick your spots with him. This is a good spot. The Nuggets like to push the ball, which favors the way Green plays. His defense makes him a good option most night, but the price limits his value. That said, in three prior meetings Green has averaged 43.3 DraftKings points in those games. If he hits 40 again, that gives us enough over 5x value to warrant playing him in GPP formats.

Harrison Barnes ($6,400): Barnes is a strong presence for the Dallas frontcourt right now, but his consistency makes him better suited for GPP’s. Barnes also has another strike against him tonight since he will have to be banging with Randolph all night instead of Skal Labissiere. Still, there isn’t much for strong mid range options at the position tonight, so Barnes warrants consideration.

Nikola Mirotic ($5,100):
I absolutely love Mirotic at this price. Even though this will be his debut with the Pelicans, and the matchup with Minnesota is less than ideal, Mirotic’s minutes are going to get a big jump from what he had in Chicago. He is still priced like a backup. Enjoy this while it lasts!

Dark Horses:

Kelly Olynyk ($4,900): Olynyk keeps putting up big numbers off the bench. The emergence of Adebayo has slashed the minutes and production of James Johnson, but Olynyk’s strong performances even in limited minutes make him a strong value play. They also make sure that Olynyk always gets his run. He is one of the safer options below $5,000 tonight.

Channing Frye ($4,100): Houston is pretty strong up front, but Frye has been very good off of the Cleveland bench filling in for Kevin Love. It seems as though Frye will continue to get at least a much run, if not more, than Jae Crowder. Frye is definitely more productive due to his shooting prowess. Frye is worth a dart throw here.

My pick: Davis(PF), Frye(F); Griffin(PF), Mirotic(F)

NEW YORK, NY – JANUARY 31: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers dunks the ball in the second quarter against the Brooklyn Nets during their game at Barclays Center on January 31, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.(Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,800): Embiid is one of those guys that is always in play. Official word from the Sixers camp is that Embiid will play. Since Embiid only played 31 minutes last night, he should be around that again tonight. That is ample opportunity for him to take it to the Pacers. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of upside here, but there is enough.

Nikola Jokic ($8,700): Jokic tore up the Thunder on Thursday. Worse than Brow did last night, actually. He is such a good all around player that he resembles Draymond Green except as an offensive centerpiece. Jokic is averaging 42.2 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Warriors so far. Considering the Warriors are on a back to back, and heading from Oakland to Denver, I really like the chances of Jokic tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,300): Capela made short work of the Cavs, picking up 43.75 DraftKings points on Cleveland in the first meeting. Cleveland is actually more shorthanded on the interior now than they were then. Thompson may be slightly better defensively than Kevin Love, but not enough to move me off of Capela.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,300): Cauley-Stein has a ton of upside, especially against a Dallas team with little to no inside presence. WCS is not to the point in his career where he is a consistent option that you can rely on game in and game out, but if you play the matchups, he can be very useful. This looks to be one of those places.

Dark Horses:

Bismack Biyombo ($5,200): Biyombo has really struggled lately, but he has a combined 64 DraftKings points in two games against Washington this year. It would seem that if Biyombo is ever going to get back on the right track again that it would start here. Still, his recent string of poor performances make it really tough to take this leap of faith.

Bam Adebayo ($3,800): Adebayo had one of the best nights of his young career last night, posting 15 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists. Of course, Hassan Whiteside departed after just 18 minutes due to illness. Keep an eye on the status of Whiteside. I expect Bam to be one of the highest owned players tonight because of his too-low price and this huge performance last night. I’m not fading him though. I need the value too much. Unless Whiteside starts. Then some of the luster wears off.

My pick: Adebayo(C); Jokic(C), Adebayo(UTIL)

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