Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday Night’s NBA DFS Picks and Pivots was led once again by Anthony Davis who led all fantasy scorers with 64 fantasy points and has now put up 60+ fantasy points in three straight games for the Pelicans! One of the more interesting notes from the night in my opinion on FantasyDraft was the sky-high ownership once again of Terry Rozier who was owned at 65% in GPP’s which for context was over 20% higher than Russell Westbrook, the next closest guard. I love looking at the ownership percentages of players during a slate and first thing the next day to understand where people chose to go in their roster build as it helps you identify your strategy going into that days slate!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
Happy Saturday everyone – we have an awesome NBA DFS slate to break down and frankly an exceptional night of NBA action as we get a marquee match-up on ABC tonight with the Rockets and Cavaliers and a game in Denver against Golden State that is just primed for DFS goodness!
From a first look injury perspective there are a few places I am keeping an eye on early in the day, with the most significant being the status of Hassan Whiteside who left least night’s game with an illness and did not return. The “illness” to Whiteside forced Bam Adebayo ($7.2K) into nearly 30 minutes of court time against Joel Embiid and the Sixers where he was able to hold his own defensively and rack up 15 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 40 fantasy points while being priced at near minimum salary of FantasyDraft and at only $3.8K on FanDuel.
The match-up against the Pistons new front-line of Blake Griffin/Andre Drummond is going to require a significant amount of run from Bam tonight especially in Whiteside is unable to play and frankly this “illness” combined with the Whiteside trade rumors ahead of the deadline makes me skeptical he is really going to suit up. If Whiteside is out, Bam is a free square value play in all formats.
Speaking of Joel Embiid, it is expected he will play on the tail end of a back to back tonight but this was also the line we were fed last Monday when he sat out. Embiid has not yet played a back to back this season so tread carefully here and if we get news he will sit, we can fire up the usual Saric/Simmons duo in his place!
Aaron Gordon has missed the last two games with an injury and is questionable to return tonight against the Wizards. Now let’s add in the fact his name is becoming a trendy trade topic which leads me to be skeptical the Magic would roll him out if there is any chance he could injure himself and decrease his trade value.
Buzz continues to build that the Magic are listening to offers on Aaron Gordon. @MikeAScotto had the latest today.
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) February 2, 2018
Important to remember that the current front office did not draft Gordon. Or Elfrid Payton. Or anyone not named Jonathan Isaac or Wesley Iwundu.
In the last two games without AG, it has been Mo Speights ($8.5K) who has stepped into the starting line-up and delivered 29 and 32 fantasy points which would provide 3.4x plus value at this price point!
NBA DFS – Core Build in Denver:
I am well aware we have a national TV game with LeBron James and James Harden and two fast paced teams that “play defense” and although there is obvious name value there, I am having a hard time moving away from this Denver-Golden State game as my core build, especially on FantasyDraft.
Jamal Murray ($12.5K, $6.8K) is probably my most written about player in Picks and Pivots and I enjoy the back and forth with readers on social media about my love affair with him and Tim Hardaway Jr. as I seemingly go to them on every slate. This is not a schtick or some hokey ploy to generate conversation on social media – I personally love Murray’s game and the more he plays in this system the more he seems to take that next step forward – remember guys, this is only Murray’s second year in the league.
Over the last two weeks specifically we have seen Murray take his game to another level, driving expanded usage each night in what appears to be a much tighter starter oriented rotation under Mike Malone. Over the last two weeks, Murray has seen a near 3% usage bump, has played 30+ minutes in eight straight games and is averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game over his last seven outings.
Tonight, the Nuggets get a home match-up versus Golden State and it is not shocking to see them get the biggest pace boost and projected point boost of any team on the Main Slate. Murray and his starting teammates frankly are all at the top of my list as Mike Malone has seemingly landed on a rotation where Murray, Nikola Jokic, Will Barton and Gary Harris are going to play 35 minutes a night – every night.
If you look back at last game against Oklahoma City, you will see how concentrated the minutes and usage really are on Denver right now as those four starters accounted for 68 of the 97 shot attempts Denver had which means those four players put up over 70% of the FGA for the entire Nuggets team.
Nikola Jokic ($14.9K), Will Barton ($11.3K) and Garry Harris ($11.2K) are simply too cheap on FantasyDraft and you can easily stack all three with Murray on that site or FanDuel while easily being able to afford another top end stud. We just saw this game happen a few weeks ago where Jokic exploded for 60 fantasy points so we know the upside is there for him in this spot and the price point is simply too cheap to fade tonight.
Step back and think of it this way – you have a team with the biggest pace/point boost playing in the fastest projected pace game of the night against a Golden State team on the tail end of a back to back flying into the altitude of Denver and you know their “Core Four” will all play 30-35 minutes. This is an all-in spot for me tonight – it is that simple.
Normally when I go all-in on one team I like to run it back and finding good plays on the Golden State Warriors isn’t exactly a difficult task however I must say, paying up for guys like Curry/Durant considering they played 30+ minutes last night and now have to fly into Denver on a B2B and deal with the altitude makes me nervous investing my cap room into their prices.
It is interesting to note the rather limited upside the Warriors Big Three has shown in this meeting so far this year as Curry has put up 45 FP/game, Durant at 41 and Klay at only 28! With other stars on this slate with higher ceilings, I do not see myself paying up for any of these three tonight assuming they all play. If for some reason any of them would sit the equation as you know changes drastically and would make me re-think this position!
Rather than pay up for players who rely on their scoring, the “smart play” may be running it back with the Warriors glue guy – Draymond Green ($14.4K) – who has put up 54, 44 and 35 fantasy points in three prior meetings with Denver this season. Essentially an “average” game from Draymond pays off his salary at this price point and considering the Nuggets rank 24th in DvP against the PF position, the individual match-up supports his case for another strong game!
NBA DFS – Do not look past the Pelicans:
With LeBron, Harden and the Warriors studs all on this slate I hope people gloss over Anthony Davis ($21.1K) tonight. Now on FanDuel I will say they are going to make it tough as they have moved him to Center so you cannot pair him with Jokic like you can on FantasyDraft but regardless of the site you play on, you are going to have to think long and hard about paying up for him again tonight!
AD has put up 60+ fantasy points in each of the three games since DeMarcus Cousins went out with his season ending injury and we saw last night specifically the kind of usage upside he has as The Brow had an absurd 49% usage rate against the Thunder. In my opinion, if you are paying up for any one player tonight it simply has to be AD as you are basically locking in a 60 point floor with added upside considering the match-up with KAT’s interior “defense.”
The big item to note here is that we will see the Pelicans debut of Nikola Mirotic ($10.3K) who will likely slide right into the starting PF spot and I would expect him to play significant minutes as a stretch 4 in this offense. The Pelicans are clearly still making a push this year and you do not give up a first round pick for a guy you are going to “ease in” so do not be afraid to fire him up tonight in his first game action.
The installment of Mirotic into the starting line-up will likely mean the usage for Jrue Holiday will take a slight step back and I am interested to track that once we see this game play out but it could also be a boon for the fantasy value of Rajon Rondo ($9.5K). Rondo was one of my GPP go-to’s last night and he responded with a big game putting up 42 fantasy points at single digit GPP ownership. With Jameer Nelson now out of the picture, the Pelicans back-court is VERY thin as only Ian Clark (20 minutes) played any sort of meaningful minutes behind Holiday and Rondo who each logged 34+ minutes.
If Rondo is playing 30+ minutes a night then you have to look at him in tournaments as his upside is immense due to his ability to rack up the peripheral stats as he showed last night with 13 assists, 7 rebounds and 4 steals!
E’Twaun Moore ($9.1K) is one of those “last guy in” plays for me in DFS who although is never a core play, gives you the stability of 30+ minutes a night in a tight Pelicans rotation. Moore shot the lights out last night, going 10 for 14 from the floor and put up 31 fantasy points but what was most impressive in my mind was his 25% usage rate. A Pelicans stack is firmly in play tonight and may be a bit over-looked with so many other elite spots on the board!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
FanDuel NBA DFS Sample Line-Up:
PG: Jamal Murray ($6,800)
PG: Rajon Rondo ($4,600)
SG: Will Barton ($6,800)
SG: Gary Harris ($6,700)
SF: Josh Richardson ($6,200)
SF: E’Twaun Moore ($4,500)
PF: Draymond Green ($8,200)
PF: Nikola Mirotic ($6,100)
C: Nikola Jokic ($10,100)
Slate Overview: I LOVE this slate and cannot wait for it to kick off – we have so many great game environments and stars to build around it should make roster builds a ton of fun. Personally I am locked in on the Nuggets core tonight and am going to look to build in some Warriors/Pelicans exposure and try to limit my core to those spots. Now its 8AM EST so I have about 11 hours to change that thinking about 65 times – man, I love NBA DFS!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests across FantasyDraft and FanDuel and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your DFS news and analysis across all your favorite sports!