Angels Ian Kinsler: 35-year-old fantasy baseball sleeper

Everything, apart from his age, points to a bounce-back season for Ian Kinsler. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to draft him at his lowest ever ADP.

The Tigers won 64 games in 2017, their lowest total for 14 years. It is no coincidence that second baseman Ian Kinsler endured the worst season of his career. The 35-year-old slashed .236/.313/.412 with his first ever sub-100 wRC+ year.

He posted a career-low .236 batting average, and although he has always hit left-handed pitchers better, the platoon splits last season of .896 OPS vs. LHP and .680 OPS vs. RHP, were the most extreme of his life.

However, beneath the surface and perhaps the season was not as much of a disaster as it first looks.

More from FanSided

The final season counting stats of 90 runs, 22 home runs, 52 RBI and 14 stolen bases were less than hoped from an ADP of 68, but they were remarkably similar to other hitters taken in that part of the draft (Hanley Ramirez, Matt Carpenter, Mark Trumbo), although Kinsler was the only one to get you stolen bases.

In fact, Kinsler was one of only six second basemen to hit 20 home runs with double-digit stolen bases. This is the minimum level of return that you should expect in 2018.

The only anomaly in Kinsler’s 2017 production was the 50 point drop in his batting average. His BABIP dropped by 70 points from 2016, so much of the low batting average can be attributed to bad luck. It should normalize this season.

The underlying skills do not appear to have deteriorated. At 6%, he is still one of the toughest hitters to strike out swinging, and there was no drop in power. Surprisingly, the 37% hard-hit ball rate was the highest of his career. As if to illustrate this, Kinsler exploded in the final month of the season with eight home runs in September. It is many years since he went deep that often in a single month.

For the first time since he debuted on April 3, 2006, Kinsler will be wearing colors of a team other than the Detroit Tigers, having been traded to the Angels in December. The veteran was happy to lift his no-trade clause to move to Anaheim. Kinsler will reunite with Justin Upton and play in a lineup that features the best player on the planet. The offseason additions of Kinsler, Zack Cozart and of course, Japanese two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, will make the Angels serious contenders for October baseball.

Despite the new surroundings and the better lineup, the fantasy world is unconvinced and Kinsler has spiraled down the rankings. He is currently expected to be the 19th second baseman off draft boards, with an ADP between 190-200.

Kinsler remains an excellent defensive second baseman, with the metrics showing him only behind Dee Gordon at the position. He has averaged 614 at-bats over the last seven years; a total only exceeded by Robinson Cano. Staying healthy is a skill that Kinsler has mastered.

However, it is the potential for over 100 runs that makes him an excellent draft day bargain. He scored 90 last year for the division bottom-dwellers, so batting leadoff ahead of Mike Trout, Upton and either Ohtani or Mr 100-RBI Albert Pujols should ensure Kinsler finishes as one of the top-10 run scorers this season.

Next: The curse of the No.1 prospect

Maybe Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada or Ian Happ will be fantasy superstars in their first full season of Major League action. Maybe Scooter Gennett, Whit Merrifield and Chris Taylor can repeat their unexpected breakouts. Or maybe you should pass over the shiny new toys to take a second baseman who has been there, done that and owns the T-shirt.

Home/Fantasy Baseball